Ricky Dimon

• Top 25 French Open Contenders: Part 4

  2010-05-19 04:11:53
  

  Leading up to the start of the French Open, Ricky is counting down the Top 25 biggest threats on the red clay of Roland Garros in groups of one, two, three, or four players. Part 4 features contenders 13-16.

   

  16. Thomaz Bellucci – Pros: Bellucci has all the makings of being a serious French Open contender in the future. He isn’t quite there yet, but he at least has the potential to make a run to the second week. The Brazilian stands at 6’2’’, moves well (especially on clay), and owns a heavy topspin forehand. Importantly, he is ranked 28th in the world and that means he will be the No. 24 seed (because of four pullouts ahead of him), so he will avoid the Top 8 until at least the fourth round. Bellucci won a clay-court title earlier this year in Santiago, where he survived four of his five matches in three sets, including wins over Fernando Gonzalez in the semis and over Juan Monaco in the final.

   

  Cons: Bellucci cooled off on the slow stuff just a bit following his triumph in Santiago. He got destroyed by David Ferrer in Acapulco, lost his opener in Monte-Carlo, and won a mere four games against Monaco in Madrid (although he did reach the Barcelona quarters and the Rome third round). More disconcerting is the fact that Bellucci has never been past the second round of any Grand Slam (granted he is just 22 years old) and he has never won a match at the French (0-2 lifetime).

   

  Bottom line: Recent results suggest that Bellucci will win matches in which he is favored, but lose matches against superior competition. As such, expect a fourth-round showing if he gets a halfway decent draw.

   

  15. Andy Murray – Pros: Murray is an established Grand Slam title contender, having finished runner-up at both the 2008 U.S. Open and the 2010 Australian Open. Nothing suggests he will ever fare that well at the French Open, but he can still do some damage at the clay-court Grand Slam. Murray reached the third round in 2008 and made it to the quarterfinals last year. The Scot is also showing some signs of life on the dirt, as he turned in a quarterfinal performance last week in Madrid.

   

  Cons: Although he showed signs of coming out of it in Madrid, it is fair to say that Murray has been in a slump ever since the Australian Open. He lost his opening matches in Miami and Monte-Carlo and was not competitive against David Ferrer (to whom he also lost in straight sets in Madrid) in the Rome third round. The 23-year-old cannot be heading into Roland Garros with a ton of confidence.

   

  Bottom line: Murray’s French Open result probably all comes down to the draw, and as the No. 4 player in the world and No. 4 seed, he has a chance of getting a favorable one. But when he runs into his first top-level clay-courter of an opponent, he is most likely gone. Look for that to happen in the fourth round.

   

  14. Juan Carlos Ferrero – Pros: Ferrero is an amazing 31-9 lifetime at the French Open; a record that includes two semifinal finishes, one runner-up performance, and the 2003 title. After heroics during this year’s February clay-court swing, another run at Roland Garros was thought to be a real possibility. In consecutive weeks, Ferrero won two titles in Costa do Sauipe and Buenos Aires and lost to Ferrer in the Acapulco final. Perhaps a French Open run is still in the cards, as Ferrero’s No. 18 ranking will earn him a Top 16 seed due to the absences of Juan Martin Del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko.

   

  Cons: Ferrero has cooled off considerably since February, although he is not exactly in a slump. The Mosquito reached the Monte-Carlo quarterfinals, but then lost to Thiemo De Bakker in the Barcelona third round and dropped his Rome opener to Santiago Giraldo. Two weeks later he pulled out of Madrid citing a knee problem. So, needless to say, Ferrero is not heading into Paris having had ideal preparation.

   

  Bottom line: For a lot of players right now, everything depends on health. Ferrero is no different. If he is 100 percent, a quarterfinal appearance is possible, if not entirely expected. At 30 years old, however, even the slightest physical issue could spell early-round doom.

   

  13. Gael Monfils – Pros: Call me crazy, but I think Monfils—if healthy—is a potential future French Open champion. He can track down basically every ball on clay and he always has the Paris crowd firmly in his corner. Just check the stats: Monfils is 14-5 lifetime at Roland Garros, and 14-4 since a first-round loss to Guillermo Canas in 2005. He reached the semis in 2008 and the quarters in 2009, losing to Roger Federer both times. The Frenchman is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Madrid and he is ranked No. 15 in the world, so a Top 16 seed should earn him a favorable draw.

   

  Cons: Monfils is always injured. Always. The most recent problem was a severely bruised hand and he played more poker (a lot) than tennis (none) in between Indian Wells and Miami. In fact, prior to Madrid, he had not won a single match since the first round of the mid-February ATP event in Marseille. While three matches (or four, but one was a retirement after two games) in Madrid were a nice tune-up, he is still heading into this slam with minimal match practice.
  
  Bottom line: A proven force at the French Open, Monfils can certainly make a return trip to the semifinals, especially if he is not in Rafael Nadal’s quarter of the draw. At the same time, though, a relatively early loss would not come as a major surprise given his struggles with physical problems.

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