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2010-05-10 04:30:33
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The Madrid Masters is scheduled for this week. Or is it the ATP infirmary report? I guess they are one and the same.
How bad is the carnage? The Top 45 players in the world were slated to gain direct entry into the main draw. With all the pullouts, the final directly-entered player turned out to be No. 64 (at the time of entry) Eduardo Schwank.
Among those missing from the last clay-court Masters event of the season are Novak Djokovic, Fernando Gonzalez, Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tommy Robredo, Lleyton Hewitt, and Janko Tipsarevic in addition to the usual suspects such as Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Radek Stepanek, Tommy Haas, and Gilles Simon.
Given those absences as well as the slumps of Roger Federer and Andy Murray, the door is wide open for Rafael Nadal to win a record 18th career Masters title. Will Robin Soderling, David Ferrer, or Fernando Verdasco be able to stop him?
Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 2,835,000 Euros
Points: 1000
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Defending Champion: Roger Federer
Draw Analysis: The story is almost as much about who is not in the draw than who is in the draw. But for the purpose of this blog, we’ll talk the guys who are actually participating this week.
Considering the current state of the ATP Tour, Nadal would be massive favorite in Madrid no matter what kind of draw he was given. As it turns out, his path appears to be quite friendly. The second-highest seed in his quarter is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who has never been especially dangerous on the slow stuff. John Isner, however, is in fine form and could present a minor problem in round three if the clay is playing fast like it did in 2009.
Assuming Nadal reaches the semifinals, his opponent will come from a brutal section of the bracket. Joining Soderling in the third quarter of the draw are Verdasco, Tomas Berdych, Thomaz Bellucci, Juan Monaco, Nicolas Almagro, and David Nalbandian. Berdych and Nalbandian have to square off in what is clearly the marquee matchup of the first round.
The weakest section, on the other hand, features Ferrer and Andy Murray. What a break for Ferrer, who also found himself in Murray’s quarter at the Rome Masters and capitalized on it with a trip to the final. The Spaniard has to be considered a big favorite to advance out of this quarter that also includes Munich runner-up Marin Cilic and Belgrade champion Sam Querrey.
At the top of the bracket, Federer looks to end his current slump that most recently saw him lose to Albert Montanes in the Estoril semis. Federer should be able to cruise through his opening match, but fellow Swiss Stanislas Wawrinka could loom large in round three. The most intriguing first-round clash is Montanes, the two-time Estoril champion, against Rome semifinalist Ernests Gulbis. The winner will almost certainly lock up a French Open seed, while the loser might need some help.
First-Round Upset Alert: (WC) David Nalbandian over (11) Tomas Berdych. What a brutal draw for Berdych. Then again, it’s not exactly a favorable draw for Nalbandian, either, but he is unseeded and therefore had to expect some bad luck. Berdych was simply dealt a terrible, terrible hand (and that’s even if he gets past Nalbandian). The Argentine has been dealing with more injury problems, but he leads the head-to-head series 4-1 and fast clay courts should suit his game to perfection.
Stephane Robert over (12) Gael Monfils is also one to watch. Normally, Monfils should dominate his fellow Frenchman (especially on clay), but he has been suffering with a bruised left hand and when he was ready to return last week in Estoril, he promptly came down with food poisoning. Robert could be ready to capitalize.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Fernando Verdasco, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Mikhail Youzhny, Sam Querrey, Ernests Gulbis, Albert Montanes, Feliciano Lopez, Philipp Petzschner, Santiago Giraldo
Cold: Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Gael Monfils, Carlos Moya, Marco Chiudinelli, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Viktor Troicki, Andreas Seppi
Quarterfinal Predictions: Stanislas Wawrinka over Ernests Gulbis, David Ferrer over Andy Murray, Fernando Verdasco over Nicolas Almagro, and Rafael Nadal over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Semifinal Predictions: Ferrer over Wawrinka, Nadal over Verdasco
Final Prediction: Nadal over Ferrer
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Ricky,
you missed the quarter finals opponent of David Ferrer..
janadevchp , 5/10/10 6:07 AM
janadevchp - thanks. and Murray.
RickyDimon , 5/10/10 6:13 AM
speaking of records,
nadal has a chance to become the 1st ever man to win all 3 clay masters in a single year..
as for the picks, do you think murray would go that far??
i mean there is querrey in 3rd round and other than fatigue for querrey i don't see how murray can win..
clayking , 5/10/10 6:50 AM
I'm surprised a bit after seeing the prediction of Ricky. Federer will have to defend a lot of points, I don't see him losing like he did in Rome or recently Estoril. I still think that if Fed really wants to fight, he will win the likes of Wawrinka or Montanes, even Gulbis. But if he can not reach at least the semi final in Madrid, he doesn't have much chance at Roland Garros.
BTW, I'm a fan of Nadal. Hope his knees work well :)
zero060891 , 5/10/10 8:13 AM
zero,
do not worry about the precious knees, I think they found the right robo-mechanic and have applied sufficient lubes on Rafa's knees, tighten up the knots & bolts, enhance the cap of a titanium, that's why you see Rafa runs around the court at full speed just like his old self back year 2008.
Raindrops , 5/10/10 10:38 AM
clayking: if Andy's head is half on right, he beats Querry. However, big if at the mo. I agree. Last year he got to quarters at FO and was beating Gonzo until they watered the court, must've slowed it down, though nobody's admitting this. I admit Andy's movement on clay is not the best and cannot understand this as he trained in Barcelona.
deuce , 5/10/10 1:32 PM
Murray should be fine on fast, hard clay
don't get carried away by Querrey's title in Belgrade. Yes he is a nice clay-court player, but he had no marquee wins and he should have lost to Isner 6-3, 6-4. On fast clay courts, I would give Murray the clear edge.
RickyDimon , 5/10/10 3:09 PM
rafa not even playing today???? this tourny will be stretched till monday??
vrael , 5/11/10 2:55 AM
Rafa is scheduled to play 2nd Round on Wednesday. If he is lucky enough to win all his matches up to finals (hope so) then, he will be playing everyday starting Thursday for the 3rd Round, QF on Friday, SF on Saturday and then Sunday for the final.
Raindrops , 5/11/10 6:41 AM
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
Approach Shots: Nadal, Murray return to action in Barcelona
Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
Approach Shots: Federer headlines Davis Cup first round
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My pics:
Wawrinka over Roddick(yes..)
Ferrer over Querry
Veradasco over Soderling
Nadal over Tsonga
SF:
Ferrer over Wawrinka
Nadal over Veradasco
F: Nadal overr Ferrer
Vea
janadevchp , 5/10/10 5:42 AM