2010-05-03 05:27:56
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
There is a short break in the Masters Series action this week, but that does not necessarily mean a rest period for the best players in the world.
Monte-Carlo and Rome champion Rafael Nadal is, of course, taking a week (if not more) off, but the No. 1 and No. 2 players in the world are back on the tennis menu. Roger Federer is looking for a second Estoril Open title while Novak Djokovic hopes to win his hometown tournament—the Serbia Open—for the second time in its two-year existence.
Estoril Open
Where: Estoril, Portugal
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Defending Champion: Albert Montanes
Draw Analysis: At first glance, Federer should not have much trouble capturing his second title in as many appearances at the Estoril Open. This week’s No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, Ivan Ljubicic and Gael Monfils, are both dealing with physical problems and both are in the bottom half of the draw.
Sure, Federer has not been playing well ever since the Australian Open, but his biggest threat in the top half is fourth-seeded Albert Montanes. The defending champion is a stellar clay-court player, but he does not have the game to trouble Federer.
Ljubicic and Monfils, on the other hand, will have plenty of trouble in reaching the final. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Santiago Giraldo are playing well and Xavier Malisse had a good showing last month in Houston. Ljubicic could have his hands full with Giraldo in the quarterfinals while Monfils might eventually face the Garcia-Lopez vs. Malisse winner.
First-Round Upset Alert: Frederico Gil over (6) Florian Mayer. The No. 6 seed is in decent form at the moment and his heavy topspin works well on the slow stuff. Gil, however, is a clay-court specialist and he will have the crowd behind him in Portugal. That could be enough to propel the hometown favorite to an upset victory.
Hot: Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Ignacio Chela, Santiago Giraldo
Cold: Roger Federer, Gael Monfils, Steve Darcis, Oscar Hernandez, Igor Kunitsyn
Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Albert Montanes and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over Santiago Giraldo
Final Prediction: Federer over Garcia-Lopez
BMW Open
Where: Munich, Germany
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 398,250 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Marin Cilic
Defending Champion: Tomas Berdych
Draw Analysis: This tournament does not feature the world No. 1 or No. 2 like the other two events (nor does it even boast a Top 10 player), but it does feature the strongest field of the week from top to bottom. Leading the way are Marin Cilic, Mikhail Youzhny, Tomas Berdych (the defending champion), Philipp Kohlschreiber, Marcos Baghdatis, and Nicolas Almagro.
Of those contenders, Berdych probably has the best draw in an effort to go back-to-back in Munich. The Czech is in a quarter with Mario Ancic, Philipp Petzschner, and Julien Benneteau, so his first real test might not come until a potential semifinal against Youzhny (which would be a rematch of last year’s thrilling final). Youzhny faces a tough opener against Jeremy Chardy but should cruise into the semis if he can get past the Frenchman.
Kohlschreiber appears to have a clear path to the last four, as his nearest seed is Baghdatis, who is absolutely dismal on clay. If the German can make it that far, he will have the home crown behind him in a potential semifinal showdown with either Cilic or Almagro. Speaking of Cilic and Almagro, that could be a brutal quarterfinal matchup.
First-Round Upset Alert: Philipp Petzschner over (7) Julien Benneteau. Neither man is a clay-court specialist, although the surface should actually give Benneteau a slight edge. The Frenchman, however, was awful in a loss last week to Filippo Volandri. Petzschner played well on hard courts earlier this season and he can be dangerous in any setting when his serve and forehand are working.
Hot: Tomas Berdych
Cold: Andreas Beck, Daniel Koellerer, Marco Chiudinelli, Kristof Vliegen, Nicolas Kiefer
Semifinal Predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Philipp Kohlschreiber and Tomas Berdych over Mikhail Youzhny
Final Prediction: Almagro over Berdych
Serbia Open
Where: Belgrade, Serbia
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 373,200 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw Analysis: Djokovic won the inaugural Serbia Open in 2009 and he is the heavy favorite to do it again this time around. His one serious challenger—at least on paper—is Stanislas Wawrinka, but the good news for Djokovic is that Wawrinka is in the bottom half of the draw.
Tournament director Goran Djokovic said that he is hoping for an all-Serbian final, but the chances of that happening are slim. Viktor Troicki got blown out by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Rome and the Serb is in the same quarter of the draw as Wawrinka. Janko Tipsarevic, meanwhile, could meet Djokovic as early as the quarterfinals and he could go up against Filip Krajinovic in round two.
Wawrinka’s potential semifinal opponents include John Isner and Richard Gasquet. Isner took Djokovic to five sets in a clay-court Davis Cup rubber, but the second-seeded American has won just a single match on the slow stuff in 2010. Speaking of United States Davis Cuppers, Sam Querrey has a first-round bye and could run into Djokovic in the semis (Querrey took a set off Djokovic in Davis Cup).
First-Round Upset Alert: Horacio Zeballos vs. (7) Janko Tipsarevic. The Serbian fans will be pulling for their man and that will give him a boost, but the surface just not bode well for Tipsarevic in this matchup. While his is far more comfortable on faster surfaces, Zeballos is the essence of a clay-court specialist. The Argentine actually has to be considered the favorite in this one simply because of the dirt.
Hot: Stanislas Wawrinka, Michael Russell
Cold: Janko Tipsarevic, Karol Beck, Flavio Cipolla, Josselin Ouanna
Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Igor Andreev and Stanislas Wawrinka over Richard Gasquet
Final Prediction: Djokovic over Wawrinka
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Although Fed's form at the moment is not so good, I have high hopes in this tournament. If he wins, he will have got some match play, confidence, and form. All of which he will need for the coming events.
Go Roger!! (And, to a lesser degree, Novak).
Champion7 , 5/3/10 10:24 AM
@champion7
if Roger wins, it may not be a good gauge of his form coz the field is weak. BUT, it will give him some mcuh needed confidence as you say, and will help him shrug off the rust that was bothering him in Rome. Once that is shrugged of, we will have a rust-free Federer, for Madrid, the French, Halle and Wimbledon. :)
tj600 , 5/3/10 10:27 AM
tj600,
I agree with you. And I hope it will happen.
Champion7 , 5/3/10 10:36 AM
win is a win, it will be good to get a few wins and some momentum under his belt for fedex before he takes on Rafa
@ tj600 can u plz share the link - analysis of Federer's game by Tim??? i saw it in one of the conversations, but lost track ..
justtennis , 5/3/10 10:41 AM
ouch! Roger Federer cold... i never thought you were ever gonna write that... he deserves it...
croc , 5/3/10 10:55 AM
4 matches of match practise at Estoril. 5 matches normally in a masters, so one less, but notwithstanding, still needed to move forward. this will be good time for roger to shake off the rust and get his head screwed on.
maxi , 5/3/10 11:17 AM
@justtennis
here it is. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/368351-fed-and-rafa-two-different-p aths-to-greatness-pt-1
Tell me what u think of it :)
tj600 , 5/3/10 11:52 AM
Roger go
RogerLove , 5/3/10 1:24 PM
"A tournament record 53,888 spectators attended the Estadio Nacional in 2008, when the Swiss superstar beat Russian Nikolay Davydenko in the final."
what does that mean???
estoril's capacity is 50K + ????
clayking , 5/3/10 8:01 PM
The final in Estoril wil be Santiago/Federer and I give Santiago the edge to take the title.
In Serbia, it will be N.Djokovic/M.Djokovic, but I can't see Marko tking a set off his big brother.
nadline , 5/3/10 9:33 PM
let's hope so, for your sake, eh nadline?
maxi , 5/3/10 9:50 PM
i think she's kidding, maxi
stu , 5/3/10 11:26 PM
"HOT Michael Russell"
I went to see him play today. I loved the way he fought at the AO and thought he would perform great here (Belgrade). I just don't know what happened, he won just one game (although none of them others were easy wins for Korolev) and claims clay is his favorite surface. Maybe it was too hot?
At some point, Isner and Querrey appeared, heading for their practice session together, and stoped a sec to watch their compatriot.
Novak will have tough time with Wawrinka and potentially even with the Americans.
danica , 5/3/10 11:43 PM
The Fed whether win or loose this week needs match play and find his first serve before RG where big points need to be defended.
AceIt , 5/4/10 3:55 AM
Clay Court Season 2010 - A Latin Love Affair?!
The first month of the European clay court season is over an it is time for a short check-up on who is among the favorites for the French Open.
So far it is only a handful of players who were able to claim a clay court title this year and in April all of them carried a Spanish passport.
But the rest of the season was pretty much a Latin love affair, as well. Only one ?white boy? was able to claim one of the 9 tournament titles handed out on the red dirt this year.
And guess where he is from?!? ?Switzerland of course. But surprise, surprise ? it was not Roger who did it. It was Stan Wawrinka who took the title in Casablanca, Marocco in the beginning of April.
All the other winner came either from Spain or South America. Nadal took the two ATP-1000 series titles in April, Juan Carlos Ferrero also captured two titles and fellow spainiards Verdasco and Ferrer won one event. The other two winners are Brasilian Thomasz Belluci and Juan Ignacio Chela from Argentina.
So, who else will be among the contenders for the French this year?
For sure it is Roger, who has an easy draw in Estoril this week and will probably win and get some confidence for his title defense in Madrid.
Robin Soderling, who reached at least a final against Verdasco, is also playing quite well and might have a chance to get to the semis at Roland Garros.
The most disappointing performance comes from Murray and Djokovic who did not do much damage on clay yet. But as soon as the French start and we will play best of five sets, they will be there again, I?m sure. But I don?t see more than a quarterfinal for them.
Del Potro and Davydenko are still out because of injuries and this made it much easier for the Spanish clay court specialists so far. But at least Davydenko might be back for the French. But it remains uncertain, if he can show up with confidence and some clay court wins in his bag.
So, far it all looks like a Latin love affair in Paris or Nadal and Federer again will get it on again... ;)
Let?s see?
Hardy Hesse
HartmutHesse , 5/4/10 1:52 PM
no, davydenko won't come back in all probability till grass court season is over..
clayking , 5/4/10 2:20 PM
Only one ?WHITE boy? was able to claim one of the 9 tournament titles handed out on the red dirt this year.
HartmutHesse , 5/4/10 1:52 PM
Any relation then to Rudolf Hess ?????? of World Wr 2 fame???? Have you added the e to the end of your name to disquise something?
This explains a lot of your thoughts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! As far as I can remember a lot of your musings have been totally wide off the mark, now you are stepping over it.
nadline , 5/4/10 3:00 PM
@nadline
he posted EXACTLY the same post on tennis-x
tj600 , 5/4/10 3:12 PM
Heres an article i read.
Juan Martin Del Potro to Undergo Wrist Surgery, Season Might Be Over
by Tom Gainey
Juan Martin Del Potro?s management said more information would be available on Tuesday, and they were right. Unfortunately the news isn?t good for the US Open champion who today announced that he will undergo surgery on his injured right wrist.
In a loose Google translation from this story Del Potro says in a letter:
?Today, Tuesday, May 4, I will be operated ulnar extensor tendon in my right wrist carpal. He will be Dr. (Richard) Berger, a specialist in the field, at the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota. Throughout this year, I wanted to avoid surgery with different treatments, but obviously the injury was more serious
?I decided to write because I want them to know by my own words of what is happening to me. Throughout this year I wanted to avoid surgery with different treatments, but obviously the injury was more serious? .
Del Potro also denied have mood related issues or panic attacks.
He also calls his recovery time ?long? and according to earlier reports with surgery he would miss 3-6 months in recovery which very well could keep the 21-year-old off the court for the rest of the tennis season. His last match was a January 24th loss to Marin Cilic in the Australian Open quarterfinals.
tj600 , 5/4/10 3:16 PM
@hesse and @nadline
I grew up in Europe and go back every summer to different European countries for a holiday. Nadline you are very right to jump on that word 'white'. Some of the central European countries do indeed have quite a few people who even today will openly say such things, e.g. implying that the Mediterranean Europeans are lower than the 'white' ones. I can't stand a lot of aspects of political correctness... but here we seem to be dealing with downright racist and superiority of some nations talk. Unless that distinction between 'white' and Latin was not meant this way - something I strongly doubt.
chlorostoma , 5/4/10 5:42 PM
Yes, tj600 it looks like he is having surgery today ... here is report from ATP tennis site:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2010/05/Other/del-Pot ro-Undergoes-Wrist-Surgery.aspx
smr , 5/4/10 6:44 PM
Yes Harmut... you are definitely out of order.
I am really hoping that was bad choise of words... but I doubt it. There is strong impression that behind your comments is something reeeeally bad.
Your nick/name sound german... and when words about white race coming from you ...no need to explain more.
So the southerners are not white..? What does it means?
@chlorostoma... very nice comment.
zare , 5/4/10 9:57 PM
For both Novak and Roger, it is going to take a lot more than one measly 250 tournament for them to get enough confidence to beat Rafa.
AmorDeTenis , 5/5/10 12:17 AM
@zare: thank you
Now as to imply Hesse is German, I did not mean to imply this at all. When I wrote central european I had several possible countries in mind, at least 3 of them. I really do not mean to get into stereotypes and even mentioning the vague stuff I did was about as much as I'd ever would want to. Being specific about the probably specifically meant perceived superiority (here of white above others), on the other hand, was more the point.
chlorostoma , 5/5/10 2:21 AM
did sum research on this hartmut hesse guy, as he always turns up on different forums with EXACTLY the same posts. Read this: http://www.blogger.com/profile/03787098237139666537
and yes, he is german speaking. Its easy to tell a german name...
tj600 , 5/5/10 8:41 AM
I am wondering if this is the same guy behind an ugly episode (maybe a year ago) which broke out on Bleacher. I'm not sure how they handled it but it needs to be stamped out quickly by TT.
And to think he is a tennis coach.
ed251137 , 5/5/10 2:50 PM
That sort of racist talk will not be tolerated in the UK. This distinction about the colour of the skin is not extended beyond humans, because animals of the same species could come in a variety of colours, even in the same litter, so I don't know why humans are so hung up this sort of thing.
nadline , 5/5/10 8:10 PM
@nadline
, 5/5/10 8:10 PM
Wow nadline, really good nugget of thought there. That is one great, albeit commonplace, fact that i had never though of associating with on the whole race issue. I wonder if humans are the only species that differentiates based on skin color...
FEDistheGOAT , 5/5/10 8:15 PM
FIG, you see, I'm not just a pretty face.
nadline , 5/5/10 9:31 PM
Can anyone tell me why all of the serious talent is in Belgrade or Munich and not Estoril? Poor Nole's going to have to kick box his way through the rest of the draw. It can't help him to have to play 3 tournaments in a row.
Maya , 5/6/10 3:28 AM
Maya,
isnt it Novak's choice?
maxi , 5/6/10 7:31 AM
Kudos to Djoko for attracting the big guys to Belgrade in preference to Estoril, or is it because they think they have more chances of lifting a trophy with Roger not being there?
Djoko can't complain about the load, because he decided to squeeze one moe tournament into the already crowded ATP schedule.
nadline , 5/6/10 10:19 AM
Maxi, Nadline - When grass court comes around it seems that the talent is pretty evenly split between Halle and Queens, which is usually the way it goes when there are two or more tournaments in one week. It seems odd that all of the top players are in Belgrade and Munich and none (other than Roger) are in Estoril. I was just wondering if there was something other than "they don't want to play Roger", which I don't buy. Maybe it's just all a coincidence. Maybe not. I think like Rafa with Barcelona, this would have been a really tough tournament for Nole to say no to. Isn't this his families tournament? Last year was the first year (if I'm not mistaken) so I think Nole is kind of under the gun, at least for this year. If he were to go through an easy draw (such as Estoril) he would probably be unaffected for Madrid. I guess that's where the term "luck of the draw" really comes into play. Some hard choices for these guys.
Maya , 5/6/10 6:36 PM
LOVE ROGER
RogerLove , 5/6/10 7:41 PM
Maya,
as i said before, Belgrade is a relatively new tournament, and yes you are right. owned by novak's family, so he is under an "obligation to play" - I think third year now. (could be second).
Roger has played Estoril already and won it, then the following year, he didnt play - late 2009, this was added to his tournament schedule (as no.19), as fed fans were wondering whether or not he was going to play this tournament, it was agreed late last year that he would add this. (RF.com).
It didnt surprise me that he was playing Estoril, portugal at all. Plus nearer to the next one, madrid, rather than travelling to Belgrade - though dont know whether this had any influence on his decision last year? I suppose you could ask the same question of the other players who decided to play Estoril rather than belgrade - it seems that other serbian player Tipsy, are also playing Belgrade, makes sense i suppose. It's all about choice isnt it? If federer signed up for Estoril last year, whose to say that the other players didnt make their own choices this year? knowing that fed was already playing?
maxi , 5/6/10 7:47 PM
Nole has no choice but to play Belgrade, it's his tournament, and he sould be pleased that so many of the players support it. I still believe that avoiding Roger may have something to do with their choice of event.
nadline , 5/6/10 9:08 PM
Nobody wants to play with Roger....sniff....It must be lonesome out there.
Maya , 5/7/10 12:36 AM
The dilema why Belgrade not Estoril, it is not always about what is easier? Sometimes players prefer what is more exciting and fun... Young people whoever have once visited Belgrade, always come back. It's very vivant-lively city, interesting with lot of entertaiments offered... Querrey and Isner are back after the DavisCup... Also players are chosing for such non-obligatoire tournaments to be somewhere where can be together spent friendly time with their colleagues. Marat is there, lot of tennis stars... This is all thanks to one and only Novak Djokovic. Ajde Noleee, with you always !
Ajde NoleI think this is the reason why.
donna , 5/7/10 4:00 PM
So now were talking. Belgrade is a player friendly city. It can't always be about Roger. I'd much rather take my chances with Roger and nobody else (don't mean to offend) than a possible Cilic, Berdych, and Youzney (Munich) or Nole, Wawrinka, Andreev, Querry, and Isner (Belgrade).
Maya , 5/7/10 5:59 PM
Maya,
what can roger do if he submits his schedule before November 2009? and others confirm theirs after this date? They could always change to play Estoril. It's their choice. Good for them all.
maxi , 5/7/10 8:12 PM
OHHH, so everyone should submit to fed's schedule maxi????? It isn't like he can't change HIS schedule to fit the circumstances. Just because he confirmed his schedule back in Nov2009 does NOT mean he cannot change it at a moments notice. I also think the players would like to do what they can to help get Nole's tourney off the ground and make it into a success. More successful tourneys, means better things for all the players.
fan4tennis , 5/7/10 8:35 PM
I know why Roger played Estoril. He was paid beyond winnings to attend. I was just wondering about all of the other top 20-30 talent who went elsewhere. It was just a thought Maxi. Not a big deal.
Maya , 5/7/10 10:16 PM
paid beyond winnings to attend? i dont understand. i suppose maya, you could look at it another way, roger played estoril before, won it, didnt play last year, but decided to for this year, way before others decided theirs. i suppose if you want to find out why other players didnt want to play, and instead play belgrade, you'd have to find out from their agent. after all, like you say, it's only a 250 point, same as belgrade, so it doesnt really matter that much and like you say, Not a big deal. cheers maya.
maxi , 5/7/10 10:51 PM
Maybe there is another explanation as well - Belgrade was voted the tours' best 250 tournament last year. So, I guess, players wanted to check it out. I feel like Querrey had the great time last year and talked Isner into coming as well. (Watched them both play today).
danica , 5/8/10 12:54 AM
so, my bronze racket is still safe..
clayking , 5/9/10 8:23 PM
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
Approach Shots: Nadal, Murray return to action in Barcelona
Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
Approach Shots: Federer headlines Davis Cup first round
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Lukasz Kubot won't be this year in Belgrade?! Strange. Does anybody know why?
OllyK , 5/3/10 8:56 AM