well where is vrael??
i think he won yesterday..
anyway my picks..
verdasco 6-4 3-6 6-3
nadal 6-7, 6-2, 6-1

p.s. if nadal will lose a set in near future , it is here.. i know the chances are close to nil, but i'll go with it..

ferrer 6-4,6-4

nadal 6-4,6-3

i would have picked verdasco to win if he were well rested......but three weeks in a row....not even rafa can be 100% after that much play

Verdasco 3-6, 7-5, 6-2

Nadal 6-2, 6-3

Verdasco 7-6, 2-6, 6-4

Nadal 6-2, 6-1

clayking.........how many points has nando gained in the past three weeks....he may get into top eight after this tournament no??

Ferrer 7-5, 6-3

Nadal 6-4 , 6-1

Verdasco 7-6 4-6 6-3

Nadal 6-4 6-2

how unfair it is for gulbis.....has to face and beat two modern day great's just to make it to the finals.....

Nadal 6-3 6-1
Ferrer 7-5 6-4

lol i just posted this and there are already 10 comments.

you guys rule

Verdasco won't be in the top eight, even if he wins the tournament. His points are still far away from Roddick's.

vrael, it is not unfair, others in that half of the draw would also have to do it, unless you are Fed or Rafa. I believe if Gulbis were to be in the other half, he couldn't get pass Ferrer/Verdasco. Both of them are quick on this surface, unlike Lopez. They'll be able to run down his drop shots and capitalize on his so many errors, that's why I'm so pissed off by Lopez yesterday. Fed really played like crap to lose to Gulbis. How often do we see Fed getting a break back to level at 5-5 in the final set, only to throw away his serve again in the next game, real crap performance that one.

yeah i guess you are right luckystar.....gulbis and the others have to deal with wat they have....its just not easy,almost brutal for any1 outside top 30 to get in the finals

vrael..
in the last 2 weeks he has gained around 800 points..
and this week he can gain 180(semis) or 420 points more (finals)
the gap between verdasco and roddick/soderling is about 1200 points..(roddick & sod is separated by less than 50 points)
so if verdasco reaches finals all he can do is close the gap by around 800 points..
and if he does win it.. the gap comes down to 400 (but that's impossible)..
so verdasco will be stuck on 9 for atleast a month more...
yes, if sod performs badly at roland garros, suppose he gets out in 4th round or so.. he will lose 1000 points..
if verdasco keeps his performance going, he will surely be at 8 by end of rg....
and if del potro cannot be fit by roland garros, delpo will slip to 8 and verdasco can go to 7..
of course mathematically he can reach no. 4, but that's never going to happen...

p.s. this is the most probable scenario, based on current form..

and vrael about gulbis and others, you forget the reason they ae outside top 30 is because they have never done well.. you say draw is brutal, i say it is indicative of their capabilities..
in the coming tournaments, gulbis's draw will be less brutal, because he has done well here..

everyone welcome VRAEL, our QF champion, as the guest picker...

thanks clayking.....thanks ricky

Wow, welcome vrael, the QF champion.

Nadal 7-5 6-4
Ferrer 7-5 4-6 6-2

One more thing, if Gulbis were to be playing nadal on a hard court, i would actually give him a shot of winning. Unfortunately for him, clay as everyone knows is slow and combined with nadals exceptional defense, he wont be able to blow him off the court on a consistent basis.

With Rafa playing his aggressive tennis, even when Gulbis is playing him on a hard court, I don't think Gulbis can blow him off the court, not even Delpo can, I dare to venture. Delpo can at times blow a few shots at Rafa that may throw Rafa off, however to be able to do that consistently for at least two full sets against a fit, healthy and aggressive Rafa, I serious doubt it. We read too much into that USO 09 match between Delpo/Rafa. Delpo was at his best then and hitting freely, against a less than his best Rafa. Rafa's forehand down the line that day wasn't firing and his serves were at a pathetic pace, and he was standing so far behind the baseline. Even Delpo mentioned that after the match, that he saw Rafa standing so far behind the baseline that Delpo decided to come to the net and attacked.

I'll say that after Rafa's injury last year, he has finally realized that he can't simply grind out victories anymore, at the detriment of his own body, hence he decides to play more aggressively this year, starting with Doha. We see that his aggressiveness is paying off. I hope he carries on playing like this, esp during the hard court swings, and get the better of those players that had beaten him during his most vulnerable moments last year. I want to see him exerting his authority again on the tennis courts.

i agree with luckystar....rafa would only get blown away if he starts playing passively....like he played at o2 arena last year....or french open 4th round..

Rafa seems to have worked on his return of serve which he demonstrated very well against Hanescu, and the big serve is Gulbis's strong point, so if Rafa can make winners from Gulbis's big serve, the match is his.

I'm not going to make any predictions for this match, because will not be a prediction as much as a wish, because I cannot be objective when it comes to Rafa. With the other SF, I give it to Verdasco in 3.

nadal should win this in straights... but gulbis is a player who could keep blowing good players off the court during a dream week...anyone having tsonga AO08 vibes for this match??

croc, no. This is clay we are talking about, not hard courts. I'm sure Rafa would want to exert his authority on this (clay) court.

Verdaso 6/4, 6/3
Nadal 6/0, 6/1

anyone having tsonga AO08 vibes for this match??

croc , 5/1/10 11:41 AM

NO! Sorry.

Nadal 6-4 6-2
ferrer 3-6 6-4 6-3

If the court acts really fast and gulbis serve is really on then first set may go to 7-5. i don't see it going to tie breaker unless nadal starts making un expected errors.
By the way any report on nadal blisters. if they are still there he could use them to skip Madrid next week if he wants to.

Ferrer 7-5, 6-2 Verdasco's a tough guy, but he looked tired yesterday to me while Ferrer looked daisy-fresh.

Nadal 6-4, 6-2 Wawrinka nearly blew Rafa off the court in the first set yesterday but Rafa kept it together. Don't think he'll lose it against Gulbis.

You're feeling sorry for Gulbis because he had a bad draw? Find me a good draw here! Beating TMF is grandkid story stuff! So is taking a set off Nadal the year he won Wimbly...

The tour is scary-good right now. A lot of the top names are MIA for this one and it's still tough out there.

Rafa: 7-5, 6-2
Ferrer: 5-7, 6-2, 6-2

Nadal 6-2,6-1 (and Gulbis will soil his pants before, during and after the match)

Fer'dasco 6-4,3-6,6-4 (and unfortyunately he will be destroyed again tomorrow)

CONGRATS vrael :)
its a pity i got late and cant enter my predictions now :( but happy for you guys

dont be late for the finals...vamosrafa!!

anand and janadevchp have a great chance to win this one!!!

Congratulations anand! I thought Verdasco would get a set and then fade, but no he was bushed.

wow anand got it exactly correct (Ferrer-Verdasco match)!!!!

Congrats anand! perfect prediction. Let's hope you do as well with the Gulbis/Nadal match!

Thanks vrael , deuce and Ricky

Feeling nice to get Ferrer -Verdasco prediction " spot on" :-)

thank GOD these spot on predictions are in a masters event..
so it is the silver racket in trouble!!
my bronze racket is safe.. :P
congrats anand

Thanks Grafight , Hope Rafa's win prediction ( or better) comes true !

lol.......man you guys are really protective of ur rackets

oh missed the exact score line by a whisker...

Congrats, Anand! Hope you beat me out on your 2nd pick as well!!

this one wasn't quite as good because the result was expected

whoever got that three-set score exactly right in Barcelona, cant remember who or what it was, now THAT was impressive

ricky..
it was me..
bronze racket holder..
you forget the names so quickly.. :P

looks like we botched the Nadal-Gulbis match....

and i am the Silver Racket holder reserving my prediction for Rome final.

sending you later my prediction...

clayking HI-5

Nobody got the second match score, that's for sure!

This gives the field a lot of reason to believe they have a chance to win against Nadal on clay. Gulbis hit 56 UE and amazingly got to 4-4 in the 3rd. That MC form didn't last very long.

HI-5 rain..
it was brilliant from both guys!!
deuce i got the number of sets alright..
check that out..
@chr18..
just three things..
a) if this is natural clay, then i'm pete sampras..
b) actually gulbis is the only guy who could have done this in this tournament.. and well he did it..
c) since delpo is not coming back, gulbis will stay the only player who can do it rest of clay season.. unless djokovic improves his play.. (and maybe the armada!!)

clayking aka pete
Everybody said that about Madrid last year as well. That excuse only works for so long. If it's in the books as a clay tournament, then it's clay. Whether warranted or not, others will believe they can win now. After MC, I doubt many believed. Even if he wins every match up to RG, there is a tiny chink in the armour. It will be nice and relaxing to have another walkover in the final of a Masters event though. Enjoy.

@chr18..
you folow a nice pattern..
when someone puts up 3-4 points against your argument, you latch onto one of those points and start your speeches..
if you really want to make your point, counter all the argumets put forth..
atleast it would be interesting to answer..
your last line was an obvious jab at the armada!!
it cannot be helped that rafa is so better than pure clay courters..

chr18,

Typical of you to jump in here with your usual hatespeak, even after Rafa wins a tough three set match. Let's see, how's your guy Fed doing these days? Oh yes, I remember, he lost a tough three setter to Gulbis in his very first match.

I felt this match would be tough, given Rafa's previous matches with Gulbis, the fact that this kid didn't have any pressure with no expectations coming into this tournament and the fact that when he plays well, he can give anyone a hard time. Those who thought Rafa would have a cakewalk just didn't realize the danger this guy presents. I didn't see the match, therefore I can't speak to how Rafa played or how he looked. But everyone should have known that Rafa would be challenged at some point.

It takes a spiteful, hate-filled Fed fan to find a way to make this look bad. What I saw at the end was Rafa winning another match. I am glad that he got tested and showed that he has that mental toughness and fighting spirit to find a way to win. What separates the great champions from the rest, is that they find a way to win even when they don't play their best.

Your sole purpose is to get in the face of Rafa fans and harass and instigate. If I were you, I would be concerning myself with the current state of Fed's game. Keep in mind, he was the one who lost the tough three setter to this kid.

Here Here Native!!! I second that.

chr18 can't bash Gulbis since he beat his fed so all he has to rely on is to try to ruin any happy celebrations of Rafa's win over the man who beat fed. Even 14 aces from Gulbis couldn't prevent Rafa from winning.

fan4tennis,

No one is going to ruin my celebration of Rafa's win. I couldn't be happier! But I refuse to let someone get away with cheap shots even when Rafa wins a match! What gall! I didn't come here and make fun of Fed for losing to Gulbis in his very first match. But now I will say that we can see the difference between where Fed is at right now and where Rafa is at the moment. Rafa found a way to win against a young kid who was playing some amazing tennis. Gulbis always had the talent, but hasn't been consistent and willing to put in the effort and hard work required to become a top notch player. We will see if he can develop a solid work ethic and try to realize his potential.

Today Rafa found the mental strength and won this match on courage, guts and heart. That is the Rafa of old. He did this so many times in the past, but hasn't been able to do it of late. I think this win will help him feel even stronger going forward. These are the kinds of matches that test a tennis player's soul. Rafa had to dig deep to find a way to win. When he wins like this, I am even more proud. The easy matches are fun and less taxing on our nerves, but it's matches like this that tells us the most about Rafa. He just refused to lose! :)

NNY and clayking,
For the last several years, Nadal has been expected to win all clay tournaments. This is due to his brilliance and dominance on clay of course. Even last year, he was expected to win another FO but the expected does not always happen. I recall his mental strength against Djoker in that Madrid SF. He won that match too but it certainly made others believe that he was beatable. I see a parallel between that match and this. That's all. I may be proven wrong but it's just my opinion.

clayking,
I didn't disagree with your second point so there was no point refuting it.
As for your third point, time will tell who steps up their game and how far Nadal's level drops.

NNY,
It's interesting that you had so much to post about a match you admittedly didn't even watch. It lends less credence to your words. As for Fed, he's not the favorite for RG just like last year. Nobody has ever called him the king of clay so the expectations for clay season aren't as high as for Nadal. Plus the pressure is off of him as he has a FO trophy now. He should be able to play his game freely come RG. The real expectations come for him at W and USO.

chr - just for the sake of clarity, the difference between madrid and this is that Nadal hobbled away from that match injured.

i barely see similarites in this match and the madrid one. As cheryl pointed out, rafa hobbled away from that match injured. plus, today's match was more like the battles rafa had against hewitt and davydenko in 07 ! both pushed rafa to the limit but hewitt also met rafa in Rg but cud not do much there. RG conditions surely do favor nadal more, he won it in 08 widout losing a set and has lost one match there in which he was hampered. what gulbis did today is surely tougher to do in RG because of the surfaces' slowness and the format being best of 5.

Anyway here is how our experts stand after 3 days of competition :

1.Ricky Dimon = 8 points , the ever reliable predictor has been rock solid this week.excluding a few glitches it he has stayed on track throughout the weak

1.Cherly murray= 8 points . paying the price for missing out a pick on the opening day she is tied at the top with Ricky , poor cheryl missed out a bonus pnt on day 1 of the competition.

3.kelli Demario= 7 points, perhaps jaded from her heroics in Monte-Carlo , Kelli has not been particularly sharp. Better head towards the practice courts kelli , madrid is impending !

*it is quite obvious that cheryl and Ricky will end up with the same pnts because we all know they will choose the same person to win the final tomorrw, ferrerr !! rigghtt??? :P

A tie break will be conducted tomorrow.

*HE has stayed on track (line 3)
*week (line 3)

cheryl,
Why didn't you tell us last year after that Madrid SF that Nadal was injured? I don't recall hearing or seeing anything (other than the usual tape on the knees) about him being injured until grass season came. In any case, he's going to be the favorite again this year but i don't think the other players are going to capitulate this year either. Again, only my opinion.

@chr18 , what exaktly do want to say? rafa faked his injury and lied abt his injury at RG?? never knew u cud post something THAT pathetic!

he was plagued by tendinites since march, you cud see his level was clearly not where it used to be on clay, he was winning titles despite playing arnd 85%, even commentators used to say rafa doesnot look as sharp as previous seasons. What nadal later revealed was that madrid AGGRAVATED his knee issue, he needed rest direly and did not take it, had he taken rest there he might have ben fit for RG and go with FULL THROTTLE !

vamosrafa,
Everybody knew his knees were a problem for a long time. He said he felt great after dispatching Hewitt in the 3rd round last year so if you want to say he lied then so be it. I think it's more like not revealing any weakness to your opponents.

chr18,

There is this marvelous thing called video highlights that you can see on various forums. What is nice is that you get to see enough of the match to get an idea of how it went. So, yes, I do get to have my say. Also, Cheryl was kind enough to give me some additional information and - surprise - I have friends who watched the match and gave me their assessment! That's who one can get a sense of how a match played out. Also, I don't need your permission to say whatever I want, when and how I want. After all, you don't miss an opportunity to talk more trash about Rafa. So he wasn't injured after Madrid, huh? Gee whiz, do you read at all or what? If you did then you would know that he was taking oral anti-inflammatories and infiltrations for his knees. He shouldn't have even played Madrid, he was in such bad condition. It was the nail in the coffin for his knees and cost him RG.

You are engaging in wishful thinking. If I were you, I would worry about Fed defending his title. Don't give me this crap about him not being the favorite and he already won last year, so it doesn't matter! I see you already have your excuses in hand! If you think that Fed doesn't care about defending his title at clay, then you don't know your guy all that well. What I dislike is that you are being manipulative by setting expectations low for Fed and holding Rafa to the very highest of standards. Typical. This is how Fed fans approach any discussion. It's similar to the idea that Rafa isn't great because he hasn't done as much as Fed, even though he is five years younger. You are not fooling anyone and will be held accountable for the drivel you post.

chr18, rafa didnot DISCUSS his knee issues during RG because he knows there are ppl like you who are waiting for some THING to pray on....had he revealed bad knees guess what, the headlines during RG would all have been related to his knees rather than the on going matches, he was putting max effort to sumhow win matches and as he later said that he was tired of talking abt injuries , he does not like it , may b becoz he never wants to take credit away from his opponents .this is the reason he did not talk abt his knees after his loss to soderling, medical reports did all the talking.

reavealing before the match that he is sruggling with knees and then losing the next day to the opponent , how nice it would have been to Sod had rafa revealed his knee woes before the match??? is that what you wantED??

NNY,
Of course Fed wants to win RG. That's a given. Doesn't everybody? That does not make him the favorite though. Nadal is only the favorite to win RG. Fed is obviously the favorite to win the other 3.

vamosrafa,
Fair enough.

chr - I figured that the medical time out Nadal took to get his knees tended to in the Madrid semifinal would have tipped you off. Clearly my mistake.

I'm not sure why the concept offends you so. The fact is that physical health is as much a part of the sport as a forehand or serve. It takes nothing from Federer's win and Nadal's loss is still a loss. I was simply pointing out that the Madrid semifinal was different than this one because of the injury.

cheryl,
I'm not offended by it. I guess the fact that Nadal won so many matches with the knee problems that I started to ignore it and think that it didn't make much of a difference. I remember Sod having a medical timeout at the end of the Ferrer 3rd round match. I thought he'd be injured going into the match against Nadal which made the upset even more improbable. So to me a medical timeout doesn't always mean a dire injury to me.

chr - fair enough. Though given his subsequent withdrawal from Queens Club and Wimbledon, it seems pretty clear that it WAS quite dire.

All of that to say that it appears Gulbis was able to press him when he's completely healthy which is EXTREMELY interesting to me. Makes the RG draw all that much more important. I expect Gulbis to be very dangerous in Paris.

vamosrafa says I've been banished to the practice courts already? Lol, that sucks.

I'll be curious to see who wins this final round- Cheryl and Ricky both have been en fuego this week. :)

chr18, 5/2/10 1:58 AM: The severity of Rafa's knee problems manifested itself during the final against Murray in Rotterdam last year when he continued with the match in spite of being barely able to walk - let alone run - by the time they got to the 3rd set. At the time Murray made the wry comment that "Nadal was hard to beat even when he was on only one leg!". Bear in mind this injury came very shortly after the two gruelling 5-setters in the AO SF and Final and should have signalled the need for a period of rest - which we all know he did not take until it was forced on him after RG.

With 20:20 hindsight he and his team might have made a different decision at that moment. And, like you say, he was used to playing through the pain barrier and delivering his brand of high octane tennis even when his knees were causing him problems. We have to remember also that he was reigning No.1 and had a ton of points to defend in spring 2009 which would have played a large part in the decision to soldier on.

cherylmurray, 5/2/10 2:55 AM Do we know for sure he is completely healthy? There was such a marked difference in the way he played against Gulbis compared with his earlier matches this week and at Monte Carlo.

The knee discussion again?

I remember reading from some websites that quoted some reports in the Spanish newspapaers that during Madrid, even before the SF, Rafa already had some problems with his knees and went for some MRI scan. I think he had knee edema then, which was some fluid retention at the knees. I think he certainly aggravated the problem at the SF. Do remember that RG started after one week's rest from Madrid. Rafa might feel better but the problem had not gone away within just one week. What we saw at RG last year was a sub par Rafa, whether one wants to recognize it or not.

Rafa used to play with pain and won matches too. I remember he won the final of FO 2006 against Fed by playing through pain. He was taking some corteson jabs if I'm not wrong before his match with Fed. That's why when asked which FO victory meant more to him, he did mentioned the 2005 FO for obvious reason, and also the 2006FO as he had done it through pain and won.

Contrary to what chr18 believes, I think the rest of the players will lose their belief that they can beat a healthy Rafa. Even a red hot player like Gulbis serving insanely well still ends up losing to a not so aggressive Rafa, do others stand a chance? Can they serve like him consistently for three sets or even five sets? And can they guarantee that they'll not meet an aggressive Rafa on the day? From what I saw yesterday, Rafa was not playing well in the second set, but he could raise his level in the third set and hung in tough and wait for his opportunity. He wasn't even playing his aggressive tennis then. If he played like he did against Hanescu, who knows he might not lose his serve in the second set and might win in two straight sets. He was obviously more tentative yesterday but managed to raise his level when needed.

Put it this way, the way Gulbis played yesterday was much better then all his previous matches here in Rome, and I think only Rafa can dodge the bullet even not at his best. Substitute Rafa with any other top players, do you think they can live with Gulbis? And do you seriously think that any other player can play like Gulbis did, with that kind of serves for solid two three hours? If I were these other players, I'll not think of beating Rafa on clay, I'll first think of how to handle this Gulbis first should I meet him.

The match yesterday reminds me of the AO 09 Semi against Verdasco, and not the Madrid 09 semi against Nole. In both the AO 09 and yesterday's match, we can see that if the match goes on longer, Rafa will gain the upper hand. In the Madrid semi last year, Rafa was facing match points and he bearly survived.

aaahh...was only a matter of time before the usual suspect took the expected cheap shot at rafa.