2010-04-18 21:29:08
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he previews the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The clay-court season trudges onward this week in Barcelona, and much to the chagrin of the other 55 players in the draw, Rafael Nadal is not reducing his schedule this year…at least not yet.
Based on what we saw in Monte-Carlo, the outcome of this one is already certain. But as the saying goes, “…that’s why they play the game.” Among the contenders looking to pull off a minor miracle in Barcelona are Robin Soderling, Fernando Gonzalez, David Ferrer, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Monte-Carlo runner-up Fernando Verdasco.
The world No. 3 has triumphed five consecutive times in Barcelona, and each victory was preceded by a title in Monte-Carlo. Nadal, of course, won the Monte-Carlo title again on Sunday. That spells trouble….
Barcelona Open BancSabadell
Where: Barcelona, Spain
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 1,995,000 Euros
Points: 500
Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal
Draw Analysis: Monte-Carlo was a non-required Masters event and Barcelona is a 500-point tournament, so the fields are quite similar. The only serious contenders who played in Monte-Carlo before taking this week off are Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic (Andy Murray, of course, cannot be considered a contender on clay).
That leaves Nadal’s biggest threats as Robin Soderling, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fernando Gonzalez, and Fernando Verdasco. As we saw in Monte-Carlo, however, Nadal does not really have any challengers on clay when he is playing his best.
The good news for Soderling, Tsonga, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Tomas Berdych is that they are on the side of the draw opposite Nadal. Soderling, seeded second, is on a collision course with Berdych for the quarterfinals but the Swede will most likely have to open with Houston champion Juan Ignacio Chela. Berdych’s road to the quarters could include Horacio Zeballos and Lleyton Hewitt.
Tsonga and Ferrero could be on the way to a third meeting in the last two months. Slated for a showdown in the quarterfinals, the two players split encounters in Miami (Tsonga won easily) and Monte-Carlo (Ferrero won 7-5 in the third). Juan Monaco and Nicolas Almagro, though, will be looking to crash the party in a tough third quarter of the draw.
Nadal’s road to the title could be the following: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Thomaz Bellucci, David Ferrer or Tommy Robredo, then Gonzalez or Verdasco. If Verdasco wants another shot at his favored countryman (he might not!), he will have to navigate through a brutal draw. Verdasco will get the winner of Richard Gasquet vs. Igor Andreev and he will likely have to get past both David Nalbandian and Gonzalez in order to reach the semis.
In addition to Gasquet-Andreev, other first-round matches to watch are Nalbandian vs. Jurgen Melzer, Bellucci vs. Jarkko Nieminen, Hewitt vs. Marsel Ilhan, and Albert Montanes vs. Jeremy Chardy.
First-Round Upset Alert: (WC) David Nalbandian over (11) Jurgen Melzer. On paper, of course, Melzer is the favorite. But does anyone actually think he has a chance in this one? He hammered Nalbandian last month in Indian Wells, but the Argentine—in the midst of his comeback—is much better now and coming off a quarterfinal performance in Monte-Carlo. Melzer is having another rock-solid year and he is surprisingly adept on clay, but Nalbandian will almost certainly be too good.
As for the top eight seeds who have byes to the second round, Soderling is probably the most susceptible to a loss in his opener. The Swede missed Monte-Carlo with a knee injury and potential opponent Juan Ignacio Chela has been a clay-court specialist his entire career. Chela is coming off a clay-court title earlier this month in Houston.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Fernando Verdasco, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, Albert Montanes, Michael Russell, David Nalbandian, Juan Ignacio Chela
Cold: Lleyton Hewitt, Andreas Seppi, Oscar Hernandez, Marcel Granollers, Eduardo Schwank
Quarterfinal Predictions: Rafael Nadal over Tommy Robredo, Fernando Gonzalez over David Nalbandian, Juan Carlos Ferrero over Nicolas Almagro, and Tomas Berdych over Juan Ignacio Chela
Semifinal Predictions: Nadal over Gonzalez and Ferrero over Berdych
Final Prediction: Nadal over Ferrero
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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destruction has hit europe in the form of nadal. watch out cos when he goes on a tear nobody can stand it.
ijusth8u , 4/18/10 11:55 PM
ricky..
i hope the draw goes just as you predicted..
clayking , 4/19/10 2:41 AM
So you also think we might see a Rafa v. JCF final, Ricky? Interesting.
I am intrigued that you picked Tommy over Ferru as Rafa's quarters opponent when Ferru was in the final last year ...?
mara002 , 4/19/10 6:20 AM
mara,
I had the same thought about Tommy over Ferrer in the quarterfinals. I don't know about that one. We will see.
Nativenewyorker , 4/19/10 6:44 AM
Just out of curiosity has any players been unable to make it to Barcelona or Monte Carlo because of the ashcloud?
SGHIceman , 4/19/10 11:52 AM
My tip is Nadal:Almagro in the final, Nadal to win.
nadline , 4/19/10 12:02 PM
nadline, I'm ... a little confused. What makes you think Nico can take JCF?
mara002 , 4/19/10 5:28 PM
mara, I would be the first to say that I am absolutely rubbish at predicting the outcome of matches, it's just a hunch. I also think Nico is playing much better than JCF at the moment. JCF doesn't look too hungry to me, and Almagro still has something to prove.
I have been right on the few occasions I have looked in my crystal, but as a rule I tend not to do predictions because I think it's tempting fate, however I've stuck my neck out this time. I'm also so biased towards that I cannot make an objective assessment, even if he was playing on one leg, with a patch on one eye, I would still pick him.
nadline , 4/19/10 5:48 PM
Re: volcanis ask flight disruptions, I thnk those players who are in Europe can drive to barcelona quite asily , eg those who are in Monte Carlo or france or Spain.
Dont know about the North European players like Soderling.
We gonna see , no?
Nam1 , 4/19/10 5:58 PM
Europe has a fantastic grid of ultra fast trains.
chlorostoma , 4/19/10 6:36 PM
Nadal OUT
RickyDimon , 4/19/10 6:58 PM
Ricky, you got a lot of us worries. Is Rafa injured?
chlorostoma , 4/19/10 7:03 PM
Ricky: reason?
deuce , 4/19/10 7:05 PM
from http://twitter.com/JamesLaRosa
Rafa: "I regret not playing in Barcelona, but this year after winning in Monte Carlo asks me to rest my body."
Sib69 , 4/19/10 7:06 PM
Spanish & italian media hav said rafa withdraws to rest his knees. Any official news yet Ricky?
ekattor , 4/19/10 7:07 PM
what a shame. I just checked google.es and Rafa said much as he would have like to play Barecelona he needs rest as he played MC with knee pain.
chlorostoma , 4/19/10 7:07 PM
all is fine, but the knee pain????? :O :(
vamosrafa , 4/19/10 7:10 PM
chloro, i did not find any mention of the knees!! plz dont scare me
vamosrafa , 4/19/10 7:14 PM
he cited "knee pain" but thats only because you have to cite an injury when pulling out
RickyDimon , 4/19/10 7:21 PM
that's reassuring, Ricky.
I was getting very worried of course. Now that you've mentioned it ... you must be right: his movement on court showed no sign of pain. (Not that you can always tell with Rafa whether he is feeling a little or even a lot of pain, but he was moving as well as ever yesterday, no?)
chlorostoma , 4/19/10 7:26 PM
The ATP should reduce the qualifying tournaments to 15 + the year end Masters. All the top players are feeling the strain, Delpo has been out for ages, Federer, Murray and Djokovic have not been at their best, Nalbandian is injured again, Simon has not been right for ages, Monfils, Fish, Blake and Soderling have all taken a knock recently.
The players are only human, and the top players play more than most because they go deeper into tournaments.
Rafa's withdrawal proves that he is not chasing the rankings, if he wins the big ones the ranking will take care of itself.
nadline , 4/19/10 11:01 PM
i am happy with the decision..its a tactical one...he wants to in the bbig ones this year..surely...he is gona play madrid now. and RG + wimb are the main targets...i just hope its 100% true that the knees are perfectly fine
vamosrafa , 4/19/10 11:39 PM
i guess he learnt from last years mistakes :).
he'd be stupid not to withdraw. good on ya Rafa!
stu , 4/20/10 6:04 AM
I came here to get away from the Rafa forums. They are driving me crazy. I keep hearing them quote Spanish news sources as saying that Rafa had to get "infiltrations" for the final at MC. Translated to english, that means injections, as in cortisone. I have been hearing this for at least a week. Then he had a bandage on his knee in practice and they were saying that it was evidence of a cortisone injection. I had a cortisone injection in my knee ( it gave new meaning to the word pain) and there was no mark and I didn't need any bandage. The speculation continues like crazy. I can't stand it anymore.
I hope to see the press conference and get some real information from Rafa and his doctor. I can't stand all these rumors.
Nativenewyorker , 4/20/10 7:28 AM
the presser conference has been conducted, rafa fans ..NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT... it was a FINE decision ,indeed. here are some handy parts of the presser:
?For me, not being able to play here is a tough blow. I am playing at home, it?s my club and apart from that I have won five consecutive times and would have liked to have the chance to continue. Next year, the conditions will be more favourable, with a week off after Barcelona. I will definitely be back next year, and the calendar will be organised in a manner that will also encourage other players to come.?
, ?The last year was difficult, with a lot of problems. I started this year playing well, and apart from the small problem in Australia, I felt I was playing well enough to have chances to win at all of the tournaments I have entered. I needed the win in Monte Carlo. But with everything that has happened to me, to play for three consecutive weeks, taking into account that we are on clay and the matches tend to last a little longer, would be almost impossible.?
When asked about the actual condition of his knee, Nadal confirmed that he preferred to be cautious rather than to take risks. ?Yes, [the withdrawal] was a preventative measure. Luckily last week I played very well. I feel fine right now, but I have had many problems in this last year and can?t afford to take any risks if I want to be in my best possible condition on court. That?s my main objective.?
vamosrafa , 4/20/10 2:37 PM
oops !!... vamosrafa.
I have also posted the presser on the other post 'Nadal pulls out of Barcelona'. there are some queries though and i would like any one of u to respond to them which i have rasied on the other post.
iMaFaN , 4/20/10 3:02 PM
In the provisional 2011 calendar it looks like there will be a break in between Barcelona and the next tournament ( an extra week) ... then Madrid, then Rome leading up to RG.
http://www.atpworldtour.atponline.net/en/tournaments/fullcalend ar/2011_atp.pdf
smr , 4/20/10 4:00 PM
Berdych is out too with a bad ankle.
(Remember his injury against Fer in 3R in MC?)
mara002 , 4/20/10 5:34 PM
Mon 14/05 03:45
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Sun 06/05 03:03
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Mon 30/04 05:57
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Mon 16/04 02:46
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Thu 05/04 18:40
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Mon 20/02 05:10
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I like the semis except for Berdych. I don't really think that he has the kind of clay game that Soderling has.
SF: Nadal d. Gonzalez, Ferrero d. Soderling
F: Nadal d. Ferrero
AmorDeTenis , 4/18/10 11:37 PM