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Ricky Dimon

  • Approach Shots: Nadal, Djokovic open real clay-court season

    2010-04-12 05:01:55

    “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

     

    The month of a February featured some decent clay-court tennis and a few players got their feet wet on the dirt last week in Houston and Casablanca, but now it’s time for the real clay-court season to begin.

     

    Spring is here and so, too, is the Monte-Carlo Masters. Although it is a Masters, however, it is not a required event. So I will answer the question before it is even asked: THAT is why Marin Cilic is the No. 4 seed. Absent from the first clay-court Masters tournament of the year are Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling, and Andy Roddick, among many others.

     

    Still, a strong field led by Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal should provide for an extremely entertaining week on the slow stuff.

     

    Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters

     

    Where: Monte-Carlo, Monaco
    Surface: Clay
    Prize Money: 2,543,750 Euros
    Points: 1000

     

    Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
    Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal

     

    Draw Analysis: When Rafael Nadal is the only “sure thing” in a tournament, you know at least one spot in the final—if not the overall title—is completely up for grabs.

     

    That is just the case this week in Monte-Carlo, where Nadal, Djokovic, and Andy Murray headline a field that is without a whole host of players. Throw in the fact that Djokovic and Murray are not at their best level and Nadal has not won a title in 11 months and you can bet everyone in this tournament is chomping at the bit.

    Furthermore, danger lurks at just about every turn for the trio of marquee competitors in Monte-Carlo. Djokovic could face Casablanca champion Stanislas Wawrinka in the third round and accomplished clay-courter Tommy Robredo in the quarterfinals. Also in Djokovic’s quarter of the draw are Mikhail Youzhny and David Nalbandian.

    Nadal should coast through his opener en route to a potential third-round showdown with Juan Monaco. The Argentine is fearless, especially on clay, and he is coming off a strong showing in Miami. If Nadal reaches the quarters, he will most likely run into either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Juan Carlos Ferrero.

    Murray is probably in the weakest section of the bracket, but he could encounter serious problems right from the start. Unseeded Thomaz Bellucci is absolutely awesome on clay and the Brazilian will get a shot at Murray if he takes out Philipp Kohlschreiber in round one. David Ferrer should have no trouble getting through the top half of that quarter, and he would have a great chance against Murray on clay in a potential quarterfinal clash.

    The second quarter of the draw features Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco, who went head-to-head in Miami (Verdasco won). Neither man, though, is lock to reach the Monte-Carlo quarters. Cilic opens with Igor Andreev and Verdasco could face a rematch with Tomas Berdych in the third round (Berdych ousted the Spaniard in Miami and went on to finish runner-up).

    Interestingly, two Casablanca rematches are already on the menu in the top quarter of the bracket. Wawrinka and Victor Hanescu will square off just two days after contesting the title match and Florent Serra will do battle with fellow Frenchman Stephane Robret (Serra beat Robert in three sets in Casablanca second-round action).

     

    First-Round Upset Alert: Albert Montanes over (16) Marcos Baghdatis. Baghdatis destroyed Montanes 6-2, 6-2 in their only previous meeting (2007 Basel) and the Cypriot has been in fine form of late, so why the alert? For one reason and one reason only: this time they are playing on clay. The essence of a clay-court specialist, Montanes posts almost all of his decent results on the slow stuff. Baghdatis is capable on this surface, but it would not be surprising if he fails to hold off Montanes.

    Zeballos could give Robredo, the No. 12 seed, some trouble, but the Argentine got unlucky by drawing a fellow clay-court specialist. Based on what transpired in Casablanca, there is little reason to think that Hanescu will get the best of Wawrinka this time around.

     

    Hot: Mikhail Youzhny, Ivan Ljubicic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tomas Berdych, Stanislas Wawrinka, Marcos Baghdatis, Victor Hanescu, Horacio Zeballos, Thomaz Bellucci, Nicolas Almagro

     

    Cold: Andy Murray, Marco Chiudinelli, Andreas Beck, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Marcel Granollers, Eduardo Schwank

     

    Quarterfinal Predictions: Tommy Robredo over Stanislas Wawrinka, Fernando Verdasco over Marin Cilic, David Ferrer over Thomaz Bellucci, and Rafael Nadal over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

     

    Semifinal Predictions: Robredo over Verdasco and Nadal over Ferrer

     

    Final Prediction: Nadal over Robredo

    Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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Comments

Ricky,

Interesting analysis. No Murray and Djoker in the semis! I can't say that I am surprised, though. Robredo over Verdasco kind of surprises me. Rafa will have some potential challenges with Ferrero and Monaco. I am hearing that Tsonga wants a win over Rafa on clay. Let him go on wishing! :)

Nativenewyorker , 4/12/10 6:41 AM


No predictions from me, I'll just be happy if Andy gets more than one round of match practise...lol..

deuce , 4/12/10 8:10 AM


Wow Ricky!!!...all your picks from Qtrs to Winner except Robredo in final are my Draw Challange picks...

I picked Veradasco overr Tommy in Semis..

janadevchp , 4/12/10 8:28 AM


I don't have any predictions, but I hope Rafa wins. And I hope Djokovic reaches the final, though it seems unlikely considering his recent form. I don't know about Murray... Clay isn't his best surface and he is not in good form at all. Still, all the best to him.

All in all I hope it will be a great tournament with plenty of exciting matches.

Champion7 , 4/12/10 10:29 AM


ok, this is where Nadal will end his title drought. I just doesnt get any easier than this. Clay and most of the top players missing. Djokovic looks like his only legitimate threat but all depends on his level of play.

If Djokovic falters throughout the clay season and Nadal regains form, then I think Nadal might well regain the No.2 ranking even before the French.

atul1985 , 4/12/10 10:49 AM


are u sure that tsongas gonna make the 1/4s ricky? he has to get thru ferrero n almagro. (they are better on clay than him) tsonga cant beat nadal on a hc..clay will give him a far better chance of upsetting nadal..NOT

tj600 , 4/12/10 3:02 PM


tj600 - Tsonga has ZERO chance against Nadal on clay

however, he DESTROYED Ferrero in Miami and clay won't COMPLETELY negate the difference in talent. Tsonga, as shown at last year's French Open, is actually decent on the slow stuff. That one should be a great match, almost a toss-up, but the edge has to go to Tsonga after what happened in Miami.

RickyDimon , 4/12/10 3:52 PM


Djokovic has parted company with Todd Martin, he says Todd doesn't understand who he is, and how he likes to work.

nadline , 4/12/10 4:05 PM


I dont care what has been happening recently, hell wid all confidence issues, it is rafa's time and OUR time rafalites :D rafa will power his way to a record 6th title (no one has ever won 6 in a row in since the open era) ... ia gree both djo and muzza will be ousted before the qtr final stage

vamosrafa , 4/12/10 4:40 PM


Ricky you really give Tsonga the edge against Rafa on clay after what happened in Miami, how did you work that one out? Rafa beat Tsonga in straights - 6.3 6.2 in Miami, and Rafa is supposed to be the king of clay.

Not that it matters, it's only a prediction, but it seems a little bit illogical.

nadline , 4/12/10 5:31 PM


um ricky, i cleary said the "NOT" at the ending.

tj600 , 4/12/10 5:34 PM


Ricky, my bad, you were referring to Ferrero!!!!! Sorry.

nadline , 4/12/10 5:39 PM


tj600 - i wasn't referring to your ending. I was referring to the fact that you seem to think that I think Tsonga has a chance against Nadal. Nothing I said in the preview or the comments suggests that I think Tsonga has a chance.

RickyDimon , 4/12/10 5:43 PM


All Spanish semis. ME GUSTA(:

AmorDeTenis , 4/13/10 12:13 AM


Juanquí is running hot. Anyone else a little nervous about the two Kings of Clay being in one quarter?

Also, no one should count David Nalbandian out, I don't think.
Have people seen his interviews? How lean and fit he looks?
Or the highlights of his match against Beck, with those dangerous angles?
*frets*

mara002 , 4/13/10 5:22 AM


no one should underestimate a former roland garros champ too much.. and that too against someone whose best showing at roland garros is a 4th round..
it is not apt to give example of miami.. let me remind that ivan dodig,ranked somewhere in 200 region defeated ferrero at australian open. so ferrero has been that bad on hardcourts this year.. but on clay he has defeated ferrer(someone who is easily no. 5 on clay now).. so i am saying it is a disrespect to a former champion that it is being said that someone not so good on clay will defeat him.. i'm not saying tsonga has no chance.. in fact he may have a slight edge as ricky said.. but to start predicting about nadal tsonga match, that is really insulting to ferrero.. can't those predictons wait for 2 days??
@mara002
if you mean nadal and ferrero, well even i feel the draw is a bit silly.. ferrero should have been in the quarter of murray or djoko.. actually i was praying ferrero should not fall into nadal's quarter.. and just the opposite happened.. i hope this does not happen in coming clay court masters..

clayking , 4/13/10 7:57 AM


arent nalbandian n gulbis in djokovics quarter? they have the talent to make a run here..

tj600 , 4/13/10 11:51 AM


Nalbandian just plain looked out of shape to me in Miami. His tennis looked pretty good, he just ran out of gas vs Rafa after the first set. I think the guys in his draw are more than capable of running him into the ground on clay.

Ramara , 4/13/10 3:36 PM


tsonga will be knocked out by almagro !

considering rafa's qtr, i am a bit afraid of ferrero , he plays well against rafa tactically and is in decent form.

vamosrafa , 4/13/10 3:41 PM


wow-almagro n tsonga are playin sum relli gud tennis

tj600 , 4/13/10 4:52 PM


1st set goes to tsonga. 7-6.

tj600 , 4/13/10 4:55 PM


Tsonga has seen Almagro off - 76 75.

nadline , 4/13/10 5:43 PM


I love moving to European tennis tournaments ... the time is a bit early but there is so much more TV (and therefore live streaming) coverage. Yea!

smr , 4/13/10 7:15 PM


I see Ferrer playing some good tennis. We may be seeing a Ferrer vs Kohl QF; a Nadal vs Ferrero QF. I think Ferrero can beat Tsonga on clay, should not do all the hard hitting against Tsonga like Almagro did, but think of working the angles and move Tsonga around and attack his backhand more; not easy to do as Tsonga is fast around the court and it seems that his defensive skills has improved quite a bit these days. Will be a hard fought match, unless the wrong Ferrero turns up. Kohl can give Murray all sorts of troubles on clay; given Murray's current form, it will be a difficult match for Murray to win.

Nalby vs Youzhny match will be interesting and if Nalby can play better than when he was in Miami, then most likely he'll beat Youzhny. If the right Nole turns up then we may be seeing a Nole vs Nalby QF.

Marin's quarter is the most interesting. Based on Marin's performance against Andreev, I doubt he'll go far this tournament. He may lose to Montanes or Seppi. Berdych vs Verdasco is hard to call. I like both their chances, given how well both of them played. My heart says Verdasco but I feel that Berdych will be the one who wins. Somehow, this Berdych that we are seeing is kind of a new and improved version - no more head case; so fast around the court, able to chase down drop shots and never gives up on any ball - and he looks scarily good out there. May be seeing a Montanes vs Berdych QF.

Semi final: Nadal vs Ferrer; Nalby vs Berdych

Final: Nadal beats Berdych.

luckystar , 4/13/10 7:28 PM


when rafa will play? and with whom?

linuta , 4/13/10 9:51 PM


@linuta, rafa opens against a qualifier Thiemo de Bakker of Netherland (dont take him lightly, he is a former junior World No. 1) on 14th april, 10:30 am local time.

murray and Djoker also has matches scheduled on either side of rafa's match same day, same time so it is well worth to tune in.

FEDistheGOAT , 4/13/10 10:22 PM


Ramara - Nalbandian always looks out of shape. It doesn't matter.

FEDistheGOAT - De Bakker is going to get a clay-court lesson. I doubt he gets more than 4 total games.

RickyDimon , 4/14/10 12:16 AM


@ricky, LOL to both your comments.. of course de bakker will be brushed away.. i just meant that the match might be worth watching even though only a second round fixture because the young unknown has potential talent.. maybe 4 games is 1 game too much too :)

FEDistheGOAT , 4/14/10 12:27 AM


Try 3 games too much :)

fan4tennis , 4/14/10 4:29 PM


3rd round expert picks - http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20100415/Expert_Picks:_M onte-Carlo_third_round

RickyDimon , 4/15/10 3:50 AM


Cilic is about to go out to Montanes. He is 4.6 1.5 down.

nadline , 4/15/10 11:59 AM


Yes I predicted a Nadal/Ferrero QF, and so it is. I get the Montanes/Verdasco QF wrong, I pick Berdych instead of Verdasco. Seems that Ferrer/Kohl my pick is right, I see Kohl is up one set and now 4-3 in the second set. Nalby/Nole is my pick for the remaining quarter, I see Nalby already through, so waiting for the result of Stan/Nole match.

luckystar , 4/15/10 5:38 PM


So Nole wins his match, and Kohl too. I get only one pick wrong, Verdasco instead of Berdych.

luckystar , 4/15/10 7:29 PM


luckystar I think you did really well ... Berdych had a bit of an injury otherwise he may have won his match! Bravo.

smr , 4/15/10 7:40 PM



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Archive

Mon 14/05 03:45
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Sun 06/05 03:03
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Mon 30/04 05:57
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Mon 16/04 02:46
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Tue 10/04 15:48
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Thu 05/04 18:40
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