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2010-04-05 05:32:54
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
As Bob Bryan said on his Twitter page after losing at the Sony Ericsson Open, it’s “time to switch into dirt-baller mode.”
The three-month hard-court grind has come to an end and the clay-court season gets underway this week in Houston and Casablanca. Seven straight weeks of the slow stuff will take us to Roland Garros, but these next seven days will be a relative calm before the storm.
Sandwiched in between Masters Series tournaments, the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships and the Grand Prix Hassan II have not exactly been able to attract strong fields. No Top 10 players are in action this week, although Houston at least features Fernando Gonzalez. In Casablanca, world No. 23 Stanislas Wawrinka is the top seed followed by 40th-ranked Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.
U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships
Where: Houston, TX
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: $442,500
Points: 250
Top Seed: Fernando Gonzalez
Defending Champion: Lleyton Hewitt
Draw Analysis: It would not be safe to just go ahead and hand Gonzalez the trophy, but he is an overwhelming favorite in Houston.
The second highest-ranked player and No. 2 seed in the field is John Isner, who has been playing great tennis in 2010 but remains far from a clay-court force. The player who would normally be Gonzalez’s biggest threat is Lleyton Hewitt, who has been out of action since the Australian Open due to hip surgery.
Gonzalez and Hewitt are on a collision course for the semifinals, but the Chilean could be tested in a potential quarterfinal clash with Horacio Zeballos. Hewitt is in a relatively soft section of the draw, but Mardy Fish can be dangerous in the second round even on his least favorite surface.
The bottom half of the draw is certainly stronger, as Isner is joined by third-seeded Sam Querrey, No. 5 seed Evgeny Korolev, and eighth-seeded Michael Russell. Wayne Odesnik, facing a possible suspension for taking performance enhancers into Australia, could meet Russell in the second round. Odesnik reached last year’s Houston final before falling to Hewitt.
First-Round Upset Alert: Because four of the eight seeded players get byes to the second round, there is not a ton of potential for a major first-round surprise. Taylor Dent’s serve is dangerous on any surface, but he is playing a clay-court specialist in Zeballos so an upset there is unlikely.
Fish beating Hewitt is doubtful at best, but Isner and Korolev could be troubled early in the tournament. Isner could open with Xavier Malisse while Korolev—if he gets past a qualifier in the first round—could go up against Nicolas Massu in round two.
Hot: John Isner, Michael Russell, Mardy Fish
Cold: Lleyton Hewitt, Eduardo Schwank, Donald Young, Jesse Levine, Rajeev Ram, Mischa Zverev, Wayne Odesnik
Semifinal Predictions: Fernando Gonzalez over Lleyton Hewitt and Sam Querrey over Michael Russell
Final Prediction: Gonzalez over Querrey
Grand Prix Hassan II
Where: Casablanca, Morocco
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Stanislas Wawrinka
Defending Champion: Juan Carlos Ferrero (not playing)
Draw Analysis: 2009 Casablanca winner Juan Carlos Ferrero was never on the entry list to begin with, and the tournament lost directly-entered players Ivan Ljubicic, Albert Montanes, and Carlos Moya.
What’s left is a field in which Wawrinka and Garcia-Lopez are the only participants in the Top 40 of the ATP rankings. That also means the title is completely wide open, especially for other contenders like Victor Hanescu, Lukasz Kubot, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Olivier Rochus, and Richard Gasquet.
Coincidentally, Gasquet and Rochus will be going head-to-head in the first round for a second consecutive tournament (Rochus prevailed in three sets at the Sony Ericsson Open before stunning Novak Djokovic). The winner of that matchup could face Hanescu in the quarterfinals and perhaps either Garcia-Lopez or 2009 runner-up Florent Serra in the semis.
Wawrinka is joined in a not-as-strong top half of the bracket by Kubot, Mathieu, and No. 6 seed Simon Greul. The Swiss could be tested by Greul in the quarterfinals, with the winner of that one likely to meet either Kubot or Mathieu in the last four.
First-Round Upset Alert: Richard Gasquet over (7) Olivier Rochus. Rochus edged Gasquet 7-6(2), 1-6, 6-4 in Miami to even their head-to-head series 2-2. This will their first meeting on clay, a surface that should give Gasquet a slight advantage. Neither one is a specialist on the slow stuff, but Gasquet has been effective in the past (beat Roger Federer in Monte-Carlo in 2005, lost to Federer in a third-set tiebreaker in the Hamburg final, also in 2005).
Still trying to get his game in shape after a two-month suspension in 2009, Gasquet obviously is not the same player he was in 2005. Still, his one-handed backhand could be the difference against Rochus.
Hot: Lukasz Kubot, Olivier Rochus, Stephane Robert
Cold: Stanislas Wawrinka, Victor Hanescu, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Teimuraz Gabashvili, Richard Gasquet, Oscar Hernandez, Robin Haase
Semifinal Predictions: Lukasz Kubot over Stanislas Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Final Prediction: Gasquet over Kubot
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Gasquet over Rochus would be considered an upset? Plus you picked Gasquet to win the tournament. I'll go with Stan the man.
chr18 , 4/6/10 4:23 AM
upsets are always according to seed/ranking
RickyDimon , 4/6/10 6:33 AM
So that means you thought there were many upsets on the WTA when Kim and Justine came back ( and beat players ranked higher than them ) after years off? I disagree. I think common sense overrides rank. Plus the betting odds are heavily in Gasquet's favour with Rochus a fittingly big underdog.
chr18 , 4/6/10 2:43 PM
HAHAHAHAAHHA!!!!............ THANKS for that hilarious JOKE,,, GoCLOWnMuzza!!!!
McQ , 4/7/10 11:20 AM
Well that means one thing is for sure.. gomuzza gonna see a lot n lot of upsets (atleast 25 of them) till the end of roland garros this year.
And now it explains why he is mentally unfit. Over the last five years he must have seen a lot of upsets.. Since Nadal has won something around 400 matches in the last 5 years. Really a terrible shock to such an ardent tennis fan. And these 400 upsets must have damaged his brain.
clayking , 4/7/10 2:01 PM
reminder: gomuzza is a girl ditched by rafa so excuse her mental lapses :P
vamosrafa , 4/7/10 4:08 PM
GoMuzza why so much hate for a wonderful sportsman like Nadal??? *scratches head in disbelief*
afrodite7 , 4/7/10 8:54 PM
Bye-bye, dumb@$$!
SenorPlaid , 4/9/10 10:14 PM
TT RIP. :-(
SeePlaid out.
SenorPlaid , 4/9/10 11:35 PM
IP banned. Hopefully TT can be resurrected. :)
cherylmurray , 4/10/10 2:42 AM
HA HA ...good work cheryl and TT. i just hope gomuzza does not use another IP to stage a comeback ! LOL
vamosrafa , 4/10/10 2:19 PM
agreed vamosrafa. thats the proble, the guys so stubborn n desperate. next thing we know, hell probably be goin to his local library or usin his mobile(if gms rich enough :P) just to go on TT. LOL btw, does anyone know where which country he lives in? (doesnt IP tell u the location?)
tj600 , 4/10/10 2:24 PM
<raises head slowly, peers around ...>
Is it safe?
Whew ... Wow! Watching someone have a complete mental breakdown online is never fun.
Particularly when he/she/it is only 13.
SenorPlaid , 4/10/10 4:21 PM
I think we should have a little patience and let cheryl and the administrators try to work this out. I don't see why we should give this obsessed person the satisfaction of driving us away. This is not an easy problem to solve. I have seen people like this on other sites and they crave attention and love to disrupt any discussion. They are people who have serious problems and they like to take them out on everyone in as many places as possible.
I have faith that TT will get this thing straightened out. I am not going anywhere, that's for sure. I hope all the regulars here will hang in there.
Nativenewyorker , 4/11/10 9:19 AM
Yes, my prediction up top came through. Way to go Stan the man!
chr18 , 4/11/10 6:33 PM
i also predicted a title win for stan:D
@tj...no i dont think the ip tells you the location
vamosrafa , 4/11/10 11:15 PM
Monte-Carlo approach shots - http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20100412/Approach_Shots: _Nadal,_Djokovic_open_real_clay-court_season
RickyDimon , 4/12/10 5:43 AM
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
Approach Shots: Nadal, Murray return to action in Barcelona
Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
Approach Shots: Federer headlines Davis Cup first round
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wawrinka over richard in 3 :P
vamosrafa , 4/5/10 9:57 PM