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Ricky Dimon

  • Approach Shots: Federer, Nadal return in Indian Wells

    2010-03-11 05:11:09

     

    “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

    By most tennis fans' standards, "big" tournaments include Grand Slams and Masters events. If that's the case, we haven't had a "big" tournament on the ATP Tour in more than a month.

     

    But that ends this week in Indian Wells, where the BNP Paribas Open begins on Thursday. It also means the return of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, neither of whom have played since the Australian Open. Federer has been out with a lung infection and Nadal has been sidelined by his usual knee problems. Both men were originally thought to be in doubt for Indian Wells, and while a ton of top players will be missing, Federer and Nadal are good to go.

     

    BNP Paribas Open

     

    Where: Indian Wells, California
    Surface: Hard
    Prize Money: $3,645,000
    Points: 1000

     

    Top Seed: Roger Federer
    Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal

     

    Draw Analysis: Five of the Top 20 players in the world are missing from Indian Wells; an extraordinary amount for a Masters event, especially this early in the season. While the field remains strong, the absences mean that the top players (specifically the top four) have unusually easy paths through the draw.

     

    Federer's quarter of the draw, which includes Andy Roddick, Gael Monfils, and Marcos Baghdatis, should not be too taxing for the world No 1. He owns Roddick 19-2 in the head-to-head and Monfils has been dealing with various physical problems, but Baghdatis is not the easiest of potential third-round opponents. This section also presents a decent opportunity for an unseeded floater like David Nalbandian and Richard Gasuqet to reach the third or fourth round.

     

    If the seeds hold to form in the top half of the bracket, Federer would meet Andy Murray in the semifinals. Murray's quarter is arguably the easiest of the four, and the Scot should be untested on his way to the fourth round. It could get tricky at that point with either David Ferrer or Ivo Karlovic before a potential quarterfinal clash with Robin Soderling or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Neither Soderling nor Tsonga, however, are in the same kind of form that they enjoyed last fall.

     

    In the bottom half of the draw, Nadal--like Murray--should have a routine first few days before a tough second week. An in-form John Isner looms large as a potential fourth-round opponent and whoever earns the other quarterfinal spot will certainly have earned it. There is plenty of talent in Nikolay Davydenko's eighth of the bracket, including Davydenko, Fernando Verdasco, Tomas Berdych, and Ernests Gulbis. It's hard to know what we will get from any of those guys right now, but you can bet at least one will get hot and be a tough out in the quarters.


    Only Marin Cilic appears to be a real threat in Novak Djokovic's way of a semifinal spot out of the bottom quarter of the draw. The second-ranked Serb cannot face anyone ranked higher than No. 21 Gilles Simon prior to the quarterfinals, and Djokovic's nearest seed is a relatively out-of-form Philipp Kohlschreiber. For Djokovic, it probably won't get interesting until the quarters, he will most likely get either Cilic or Juan Carlos Ferrero. The 11th-seeded Spaniard has been on fire recently, but on the hard courts of Indian Wells, Cilic will be a big favorite to get past him in round four.

     

    Second-Round Upset Alerts: Because all 32 seeded players get byes to the second round, there will not be any significant surprises on the first two days of play. When the seeds take the court, however, the upsets are sure to come. Ones to watch:

     

    Gasquet over (12) Monfils - Gasquet has been decent since last summer's return from a cocaine-related suspension and Monfils has all kinds of injury issues.

     

    Nalbandian over (22) Jurgen Melzer - Nalbandian won a huge Davis Cup doubles rubber last weekend in Sweden and then clinched the tie for Argentina one day later with a singles win over Andreas Vinciguerra. If Nalbandian is 100 percent, as he appeared to be in Davis Cup, he should actually be considered the favorite against Melzer.

     

    Michael Russell over (32) Igor Andreev - Russell is quietly putting together an impressive season and he will have a good shot against Andreev on a hard court.

     

    Michael Llodra over (9) Tsonga - Who knows if Tsonga is 100 percent, and Llodra is looking good. They faced each other in the Dubai first round and an exhausted Llodra, coming off a title in Marseille, still managed to extend Tsonga to a marathon first-set tiebreaker (Llodra eventually lost it then retired).

     

    Horacio Zeballos over (24) Albert Montanes - Montanes is even losing on clay right now. That's not a good sign for his hard-court prospects.

     

    Gulbis over (5) Davydenko - Davydenko pulled out of Davis Cup last week and he is still questionable to take the court in Indian Wells. Gulbis, on the other hand, is coming off a semifinal performance in Memphis and a title in Delray Beach. And when he's hot, watch out.

     

    Leonardo Mayer over (16) Simon - Mayer played pretty well during the recent U.S. hard-court swing and Simon has been A.W.O.L. this year due to knee tendinitis. If Mayer gets past Brian Dabul in round one, he should definitely take out Simon. 

     

    Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Marin Cilic, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer, John Isner, Sam Querrey, Juan Monaco, Ivo Karlovic, Thomaz Bellucci, Marcos Baghdatis, Florian Mayer, Evgeny Korolev, Ernests Gulbis, Lukas Lacko, Michael Russell

     

    Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Radek Stepanek, Gilles Simon, Tommy Robredo, Albert Montanes, Igor Andreev, James Blake, Mardy Fish, Robby Ginepri, Jeremy Chardy, Victor Hanescu, Oscar Hernandez, Andreas Seppi, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Andreas Beck, Mario Ancic, Carlos Moya, Rajeev Ram, Christophe Rochus 

     

    Quarterfinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Andy Roddick, Andy Murray over Feliciano Lopez, Rafael Nadal over Fernando Verdasco, and Marin Cilic over Novak Djokovic

     

    Semifinal Predictions: Murray over Federer and Cilic over Nadal

    Final Prediction: Murray over Cilic

     

     

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Comments

so you think murray will go one better than last year?? deuce will be happy! ;)

there will be lots of hype if murray meets fed but hasn't it been a while since muzz beat him - last year?? can't remember myself. would like to see either rafa, murray, djoker or cilic win this title. doubt simon can. wot's happening with him? coming back from knee injury last i heard. will be extremely tough for rafa to defend here so if he does he will have earned it.

homos , 3/11/10 6:58 AM


Agree with Ricky's predictions, except the final, where I think this time Cilic will prevail over Murray. I hope to see a Cilic of USO 09 playing against a healthy Murray and see whether he can still beat Murray.

luckystar , 3/11/10 11:02 AM


I agree Felli is like ?penicillin? for Sod...he keeps beating him and Sod always seems useless when playing Feliciano Lopez. However, I still can not see Felli reaching quarters although I like him very much-he is one of those sweet, sexy Spaniards :) and I am still grateful to him for beating Sod in Shanghai and making life easier for Rafa...however, I give more chances to Tsonga...however, I also have my hopes for Blake, he can always surprise people and he is being underestimated at the moment on his home ground...I think he will reach quarters this time...or at least I would love him to, I like Blake, he is such a nice guy...

natashao , 3/11/10 12:10 PM


natashao,
Shameful admission there about making life easier for Nadal by not having to face the Sod. I doubt Nadal even fears him. Why do you?

chr18 , 3/11/10 1:47 PM


chr18, don't you recall how Rafa felt when he came back from the injury? He was not at all himself...he looked tired, slower than usual with his form at 40-50% of his best and that is why I wished him played less "mentally stressful" matches...you know how big fuss was made about him losing to Sod at FO and I did not want him to face Sod at that stage when he was not at least 70% of his best...that is mainly why I felt relieved when he did not have to play him...it is the only reason...I must say that I was nervous when he played him in Abu Dhabi mainly due to that constant pressure over FO win but Rafa was great and back with his form so I no more think Sod will ever be a threat to Rafa in any sense...

natashao , 3/11/10 2:01 PM


If rafa meets soda he will go back to hospital!! Ricky is the best he alwys make 100% best predictions but i hope murray gets an easier player! cilic is too tough! Some qualifier like Nadal would be easier! Wish Nadal was in Murray draw then that round would have been like bye for Muzza beacuse nadal would have run off after one set this time!

but as predicted Go Muzzaa! Why is Murray no there in hit for haiti??

GoMuzza , 3/11/10 6:26 PM


I dont think that Cilic's game is suited to facing a Nadal good enough to get to a semis.. I am just saying that if raf is good enough to make the semis(which i sadly doubt but hope for), it'll be a break through and momentum swing for him and it would take a fed in top form to stop him from running away with this trophy and if that happens then bingo, all of a sudden you'll have the old order restored on clay courts this coming season. :) I just want rafa to be good enough to get to the Fo final and meet fed there and hopefully shed a few tears and have fed there to console him! So, Vamos!

FEDistheGOAT , 3/11/10 6:45 PM


FIG, I partly agree with you, but I want Rafa to do better than get to the final, it's about time Rafa bites another trophy. If both Rafa and Roger meet in the final, tennis will breath a new lease of life, until one of them retires, they are the only game in town.

I know I have suggested that we ignore GoMuzza, but I'll just say that he is a closet Rafan, and is frustrated by Rafa not being on top of his game recently, either that or he badly needs to be sectioned.

Vamos!

carrie , 3/11/10 6:55 PM


My friend sent this to me from some BBC article so cant post the link but:

How Rankings Could be at the end of Indian Wells:

Defending Points

Nadal 1000
Murray 600
Federer 360
Novak 180
Davydenko 0
JMDP 180
Roddick 360
Sod 25
Cilic 45
Gonzo 90

Overview

Delpo will get 0 points this week and may drop out of the 5 if Davy who is defending nothing wins the tournament.

Gonzo will drop out of the 10 (as he is nobaly missing it) and will be replaced by Tsonga who is defending half the number of points compared to Verdasco. Gonzo will drop to 12 as Ferrero is too far behind and Youzney is not playing, who may lose 13 to Ferrero.

Rafa will drop to 4 if Murray gets a net 180 approx on Rafa, which is very likely as Rafa is defending 400 more than Murray, so all Andy needs to do is match Rafa and he will take the 3. Murray can not get the 2 even if he wins and Novak fails to get past R2.

And that folks is the movers and shakers in the top 15

@GoMuzza, murray wont gain much even if he wins this, so cut the hype. Whose fan are you anyway? Respect begets respect mate.

FEDistheGOAT , 3/11/10 6:58 PM


For people interested in points movements and yes it is getting tighter at the top now excepting fed, here is a site I used to frequent (it has not been updated since Ao but there was a message that it would be in time for IW):

http://www.pointsspy.co.uk/

FEDistheGOAT , 3/11/10 7:05 PM


homos: Hi! Yep, am pleased with that prediction, but Andy was not playing very well in Dubai, so I'll just wait and see how he shapes up in the first few matches.

deuce , 3/11/10 9:41 PM


deuce! Hi! Actually murray was playing very well in dubai!

He was just experimenting new ways so that he can steam roll federer like he regularly does to nadal now. He is sure to win come on ok!

Hey I just postthis really funny conversation in this other thread to help maxi understand how nadal manages to waste time etc and get away with it? Want to check it out??? you should!

this thread ok=http://www.tennistalk.com/en/news/20100310/Federer_in_Indian_Wells_ quarter_with_Roddick%2C_Baghdatis_

Tell if you want me to post it here ok! everyone says it is very true and funny but it is actually true!

GoMuzza , 3/11/10 10:17 PM


Finale...Nole and Fed... don't know who will win... can go both side...
Murray is lucky not to have Tipsa in his group... Muzza didn't show anything after AO, so I don't see why people still expecting something... (OK, gomuzza expect ...no comment)

zare , 3/12/10 1:01 AM


ricky and anyone else do u ppl have any links to that exho ?? if anyone finds a stream plzz post it here !

vamosrafa , 3/12/10 1:22 AM


@vamosrafa, it's being broadcast online on the Tennis Channel. Just head over to the site. I'll be watching on espn 360 though i hope..

FEDistheGOAT , 3/12/10 1:43 AM


vamosrafa: Here is the link for live streaming http://www.bnpparibasopen.org/Promotion/Hit-for-Haiti-Live-Stream.aspx

vmm , 3/12/10 5:00 AM


has a Hit For Chile been confirmed yet?

RickyDimon , 3/12/10 5:41 AM


Even if Rafa can get pass Davy/Verdasco at the QF, there is no guarantee that he'll get pass Nole/Cilic. Remember how Cilic dismantle Rafa at the Beijing Open SF last year, beating him 6-1,6-3? That was one of the most embarrassing beating Rafa had gotten so far, besides the Tsonga one at AO 08 and Delpo one at USO 09. Cilic's game is a bad match up for Rafa, like Delpo's and Soderling's. Nole's hard court game is always a problem for Rafa. Rafa can only hope that he can play and sustain a highly aggressive game (like that Doha final) when he get to play against Cilic/Nole, anything short of that will see another defeat against a top ten player for him, unless Cilic/Nole played badly.

If he get to the final, I think he can beat Fed if Fed is there, if he meets Murray in the final, he'll have to play a patient and controlled game. The way he played at the AO QF was good but not good enough because his serve and his nerve failed him. During that AO QF, he was trying to play aggressively and was leading both sets when he had the break of serves, but he duly got broken back by playing and serving badly. I think he was overly aggressive and went for too much at times. He has to be patient when he plays Murray, just like what Fed did during the AO final, take his time and find the right time to attack while defending well at the same time.

I find that Murray is one player that is very difficult to play against on a hard court, even for players like Fed/Rafa/Nole. If Murray is at his best, i think he can win IW, unless a top form Nole/Cilic faces him in the final.

luckystar , 3/12/10 7:11 AM


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyct5PGCYX4

roger rafa practising

vrael , 3/12/10 8:24 AM


luckystar, I don't believe that just because Cilic beat Rafa hands down once doesn't mean it will happen again. Rafa said he wasn't mentally there, he had a lot of issues at the time, but is now OK.

Rafa dessimated Roger at the FO in 2008, but he hasn't beaten him so badly since.

carrie , 3/12/10 9:56 AM


luckystar, Nadal has the habit of taking absolute beatings every now and then even when he is 100% fit, remember the two consecutive masters tourney matches against Nalbandian in 2007? Agree with you that Delpo/Cilic are the nightmare match-ups for him on any court and especially on hard courts. From now onwards I would be surprised if he wins even one match on any court, including clay, against Delpo provided Delpo is 100% fit.

vmm , 3/12/10 10:32 AM


GoMuzza: I feel very sorry 4 u. To be an Andy supporter is to live on a roller-coaster, u obviously have not realised that yet. With such huge expectations u r bound, therefore, to live your life in a haze of disappointment. Hope u have a box of tissues at the ready.
Meanwhile those of us who live in the real world of Andy supporters are holding our breath, tightly shutting our eyes and clutching four leaved clovers.....alex where r u?

deuce , 3/12/10 11:17 AM


Delpo/Cilic are bad match up for Rafa, more so than Soderling. However that does not mean that Rafa cannot beat them. He has to be at his best in order to beat them and I think on hard courts, they will always have the advantage. On clay and grass, Rafa would still have the edge over them, as playing on clay and grass, movement is very important and the two of them are not better mover than Rafa. I'll expect Rafa's H2H against Delpo/Cilic to be in Rafa's favour, but on hard court alone, H2H will be in their favour.

Against Murray, I think if Rafa played with controlled aggression on hard court, he can still beat Murray, so H2H on hard should be equal; on clay definitely in Rafa's favour and I'm curious about Rafa/Murray on grass. We may see them playing each other on grass at Queen's and Wimbledon.

luckystar , 3/12/10 11:44 AM


I am watching Rafa/Delpo at the USO SF now and it's evident that Rafa was severely hampered with his stomach muscles - his stomach heavily strapped, and unable to serve properly, in Miami, Rafa had to go straight for a scan on his knees from that match, plus his parent's seperation had just come to a head.

I know Delpo is a much better player now than he was this time last year, but I have every faith in Rafa that Delpo will not beat him again, nor Cilic. Look how he bagled Nalby when he put his mind to it and stopped being sacred of Nalby.

Vamos!

carrie , 3/12/10 11:45 AM


When Tsonga beat Rafa instraight sets in Australia, everyone said he was a bad match-up for Rafa, that Rafa would never beat Tsonga again, this was the new world order, Tsonga would be No1 in no time, bla, bla, bla - well, Rafa has beaten his 3 times in a row since then

carrie , 3/12/10 11:57 AM


carrie,
You have too much blind faith. There's one difference between Tsonga and del Potro. Tsonga is still looking for his first GS title while del Potro proved he has the heart of a true GS champion at USO last year. He's injured now but he will be back in a big way.

chr18 , 3/12/10 1:46 PM


F is the G thanks for the point spy link (my head usually hurts way to much when trying to figure out points on my own); although it seems they are under construction ... I'll go back for another look.
It would be so great to have a Rafa / Roger final ... might not happen here ... but soon. It remains to be seen who will be doing the crying.

smr , 3/12/10 1:57 PM


i dont know exactly whats the debate all abt but carrie's pnt abt rafa's matches against tsonga is a very good one. It doesnot really matter if tsonga has not won a slam, the way he played in that match against rafa was sublime and many said rafa will never win a hard court slam and struggle againt jo in future big time. He has beaten tsona 3 times in a row now! , murray has also not won a slam ..best result like tsonga is a runners-up !! so i think it doesnot mean much saying delp is so diff from tsonga beczo he has not won a slam.

vamosrafa , 3/12/10 4:40 PM


chr18, you have more faith in Delpo because he has won 1 GS, than you have in Rafa who has 15 Masters, 6 GS under his belt, plus being able to maintain a top 2 ranking for close on 6 years in a row, it just shows that you just don't like Rafa because he is a threat to you man Roger.

Delpo has not won a single Masters, and has only got tot the final of 1, plus the WTF. I'd rather put my faith in Rafa who has proved himself than have expectations in someone who may just have had a flash in the pan.

carrie , 3/12/10 5:19 PM


Also chr18, amongst other achievements, Rafa was the first player to win RG, Queens and Wimbledon in a row. When Rafa is fit, he is awesome, admit it!

Vamos!

carrie , 3/12/10 5:31 PM


carrie,
You stated that you had faith that del Potro or Cilic would never beat Nadal again. I don't think he would be so cocky as to make such a statement (or stupid enough to think it to himself). I wasn't comparing del Potro's resume to Nadal's resume. Clearly Nadal has achieved more. However, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. As any Nadal fan should know, it's not easy to take out Fed in a GS final so I don't think del Potro is a "flash in the pan". Perhaps you thought that only your man could do it so now you're a little jealous that del Potro has done it in a GS where Nadal has never even made a final.

chr18 , 3/12/10 7:35 PM


To GoMuzza who asked awhile ago why there was no Murray in Hit for Haiti?

Umm, I hate ty break it to you but its because not too many people are inerested in seeing Murray compared to Federer and Nadal ; I imagine the organizers asked Fed and Rafa; if they said no then they would have gone down the rankings to Djoko and Murray..

Nam1 , 3/12/10 7:57 PM


chr18, I agree that it's not easy to take Federer out in a GS final and Rafa has done it 5 out of 7 times, that just shows the measure of Rafa.

carrie , 3/12/10 8:05 PM


Nam1: federer arranged hit for haiti. the first one anyways. i don't know about the one being played later today. i'm guessing he had his own reasons for not asking murray

Sib69 , 3/12/10 8:18 PM


BRAVO RICKY!!! I like your prediction... really:-)... every time when you have predicted that Nole will win he went out in QF... So this is one more tournament for Nole...

zare , 3/13/10 12:08 AM


"I imagine the organizers asked Fed and Rafa; if they said no then they would have gone down the rankings to Djoko and Murray.."

Novak is #2 and Nadal is #3.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/

rfzr , 3/13/10 4:05 AM


some great photos of roger and rafa at indian wells, everyone.

roger here - and then i'll post rafa.

http://www.gototennisblog.com/2010/03/10/photos-roger-federer -practices-at-2010-indian-wells/


maxi , 3/13/10 1:25 PM


http://www.gototennisblog.com/2010/03/13/photos-rafael-nadal-practices -at-indian-wells-2010-flirty-flavia-bonus/

maxi , 3/13/10 1:26 PM


The Benneteau / Ancic match is certainly entertaining!!

smr , 3/14/10 12:08 AM


Ricky... what about Cilic...??? Loosing first set and in second...double break for No49 Garcia... he's lost, no game, nothing???

zare , 3/14/10 2:27 AM


5:0...for Garcia...and he is serving for match... Marin is on break of tears...more then 40 UE... terrible...

zare , 3/14/10 2:38 AM


...and Marin just has booked his ticket to Loosevile... He's gonna need some time to forget this humiliation...
It has started...Cilic, Gasquet.... OMG I love this sport!!!

zare , 3/14/10 2:47 AM


Cilic just got bageled by Garcia.

rfzr , 3/14/10 2:47 AM


What happen to my poor Cilic? Poor boy must be crying now, lost the second set 0-6! I hope he can recover from this humiliating loss and get ready for Miami. I think he may drop out of top ten, hopefully he can get back by doing well at Miami. Come on Cilic, don't lose heart, try harder next time!

luckystar , 3/14/10 4:17 AM


c'mon chardy! show em you're not just a pretty face!

stu , 3/14/10 6:12 AM


thanks a lot, Cilic

RickyDimon , 3/14/10 7:19 AM


Am surprised there is no mentioining of Sampras/Aggasi exo last night?

tennislover , 3/14/10 8:40 AM


tennislover - its being discussed on a different thread

RickyDimon , 3/14/10 2:28 PM


Oh god! How can you say that nadal will not be able to beat DelPo or Nole again... It's stupid.. rlly stupid... XD

linuta , 3/15/10 9:09 PM


ha because it is true so easy.

GoMuzza , 3/16/10 12:08 AM


Big win for the Sod over Flopez. I thought he may have been tired from DC last week and feeling the heat but he came through. It's too bad he has to face Jo next round as one of them will have to lose.

chr18 , 3/17/10 12:40 AM


i agree chr18. The soderling vs tsonga match bounds to be a hard hitting affair as it pits 2 of the biggest forehands in the game. You can rest assured tho, that if murray moves into the quarters, he will have his cut out. Just as a matter of interest, who do u think is gonna win? I pick tsonga in 3

tj600 , 3/17/10 2:16 PM


soderling in 2

vamosrafa , 3/17/10 4:48 PM


i was right :D ..muzza has a tough match now

vamosrafa , 3/18/10 2:18 AM


muzz wont win. hes playing far too passively and is making too many errors. You know that a big hitter is in good hitting form when he manages to outhit another big hitter comprehensively, and thats precisely what soderling did to tsonga. Normally i would want murray to win as i dont like soderling, but as gomuzza is on this site, i really want soderling to trash murray-it might just shut gomuzza up.

tj600 , 3/18/10 9:11 AM


muzza is so, so lucky with this draw! everyone needs a favorable draw after a long break from tennis!

stu , 3/18/10 3:03 PM



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