Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Davis Cup first round a calm before the storm

  2010-03-02 21:54:03
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  A furious four-week stretch that included a whopping 12 ATP tournaments is finally over. Now it’s time for the Davis Cup to take center stage.
  
  While a scintillating Switzerland vs. Spain opening-round clash once appeared to be the headliner, both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal—neither unexpectedly—pulled out, and the defending champion Spaniards are also without an on-fire Juan Carlos Ferrero. One of the other more intriguing ties also features some different faces; the United States, which travels to Serbia, will have John Isner and Sam Querrey playing singles instead of veterans Andy Roddick and James Blake.
  
  After four days of no tennis, three days of Davis Cup action, and a few more days of rest early next week, a relative lull on the ATP schedule will give way to the high-stakes spring season, starting with Masters events in Indian Wells and Miami and culminating with the French Open.

   

  Switzerland vs. Spain

   

  Where: Logrono, Spain
  Surface: Indoor Clay
  Switzerland: Stanislas Wawrinka, Marco Chiudinelli, Yves Allegro, Michael Lammer
  Spain: David Ferrer, Nicolas Almagro, Tommy Robredo, Marcel Granollers

   

  While the possibility of a Federer vs. Nadal Davis Cup showdown was momentarily enticing, nobody could have actually though it was going to happen; not at this point on the calendar. As it turns out, not surprisingly, neither Federer nor Nadal will be in action this weekend in Logrono. Obviously that is worse tradeoff for Switzerland since the visitors are far less deep in their talent pool than the Spaniards. In other worlds, Federer is light years more valuable to his team than Nadal is to his. The bad news for the two-time defending champions, however, is that a streaking Ferrero is also out. Ferrero, who has reached three ATP finals and won two titles in the last three weeks, pulled out citing a wrist injury.
  
  Some more good news for Switzerland is that even with Federer out, the team actually still has two players capable of winning singles matches. Unlike last year when the Swiss faced the USA in a road tie without Federer, Marco Chiudinelli has to be taken seriously now (he won the ATP’s 2009 Comeback Player of the Year Award). Still, these bits of good news only mean that Switzerland has a chance of not getting absolutely humiliated this weekend. Chiudinelli can keep a match close and Stanislas Wawrinka could even win a point for the visitors, but the odds are good that this will be a 3-0 whitewash.

   

  Prediction: Spain 3, Switzerland 0 (fifth rubber dead)

   

  ***note: Davis Cup ties are best three out of five matches—or “rubbers”—with two singles matches on both Friday and Sunday and doubles on Saturday. When a team wins three matches the tie is clinched and any remaining rubbers are referred to as “dead.” Prior to a team winning three points, all rubbers are “live.” All live rubbers are three out of five sets; dead rubbers are two out of three.***

   

  United States vs. Serbia

   

  Where: Belgrade, Serbia
  Surface: Indoor Clay
  United States: John Isner, Sam Querrey, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
  Serbia: Novak Djokovic, Janko Tipsarevic, Viktor Troicki, Nenad Zimonjic

   

  Is it the end of an era for the United States Davis Cup team? That’s not entirely clear, but what is clear is that this weekend’s tie in Serbia clearly signals the beginning of a new era for American tennis. Gone from the 2007 cup-winning team are Roddick and Blake. Taking their places are fast-rising friends Isner and Querrey, who gave Patrick McEnroe a reason for home by reaching the final of the 500-point event in Memphis (Querrey beat Isner for the title, then the two of them teamed up to win the doubles championship).
  
  The absolute rock of the USA team for the last decade, however, is still in place. The Bryan Brothers are favored every time they take the court in Davis Cup, and this Saturday will be no different. If—and only if—Bob and Mike can prevail, the visitors will have a chance. It’s hard to imagine either Isner or Querrey beating Novak Djokovic on red clay in a hostile environment, so the U.S. better hope for a pair of singles wins at the expense of Janko Tipsarevic (or Viktor Troicki, or one over each). An upset is not entirely out of the question, but it is unlikely at best.

   

  Prediction: Serbia 3, United States 1

   

  Germany vs. France

   

  Where: Toulon, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Benjamin Becker, Simon Greul, Christopher Kas
  France: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Julien Benneteau, Michael Llodra

   

  The French melted down in last year’s Davis Cup first round, but they had to play the Czech Republic, which went on to finish runner-up. This time around, France gets to host Germany, which is without an injured Tommy Haas. The Germans will be underdogs in every rubber, especially on Saturday against accomplished doubles players Julien Benneteau and Michael Llodra. Benjamin Becker and Christopher Kas have doubles talent, but beating Benneteau and Llodra (in France, no less) would constitute a monumental upset.
  
  Presumably needing to take three singles points, Germany has almost no chance in this tie. The only hope for the visitors is that France’s singles players—Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils—are always question marks. Tsonga and Monfils are injured more often than not, and physical problems are the only foreseeable way either one of them could lose to Becker or Philipp Kohlschreiber on an indoor hard court. As long as Tsonga and Monfils are anywhere close to their best, this tie will be over on Saturday.

   

  Prediction: France 3, Germany 0

   

  Argentina vs. Sweden

   

  Where: Stockholm, Sweden
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Argentina: Horacio Zeballos, Leonardo Mayer, Eduardo Schwank, Federico Del Bonis
  Sweden: Robin Soderling, Andreas Vinciguerra, Robert Lindstedt, Simon Aspelin

   

  Already without Juan Martin Del Potro (wrist), a depleted Argentine squad had to replace Juan Monaco last weekend after Monaco withdrew from his Acapulco semifinal against Ferrero due to an abdominal strain. Replacing Monaco? None other than Federico Del Bonis. Who? Well, it does not really matter who Del Bonis is because Leonardo Mayer will almost certainly assume the other singles spot alongside Horacio Zeballos.
  
  Injuries, however, are only part of the problem for Argentina. Exacerbating the Argentines troubles are the fact that they have to play this tie in Sweden and the fact that the Swedes boast two doubles specialists. There is almost no way Robert Lindstedt and Simon Aspelin can lose the doubles rubber. There is also no way that Argentina can win more than two singles rubbers. The visitors can win two because Sweden only has one reliable player in Robin Soderling; Andreas Vinciguerra rarely plays on the ATP Tour anymore and Joachim Johansson—who could take the spot from Vinciguerra—rarely plays due to constant injuries. Depending on when Soderling is scheduled to play, Argentina has a remote chance of taking this one the distance. Even if that happens, any perceived suspense will not be real. Sweden has this one in the bag.

   

  Prediction: Sweden 3, Israel 1

   

  In other ties, Russia hosts India, Croatia hosts Ecuador, Chile hosts Israel, and Belgium hosts the Czech Republic.

   

  Predictions: Russia 3, India 1 – Croatia 3, Ecuador 0 – Chile 3, Israel 1 – Czech Republic 3, Belgium 1

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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