Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer out, Ferrero eyes three straight

  2010-02-22 19:19:51
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  The wild month of February finally concludes this week with three more tournaments, including the best of the furious four-week stretch in Dubai. Roger Federer is out with a lung infection, but Top 10 players Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Nikolay Davydenko, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Marin Cilic will be in action.
  
  Leading the way in Acapulco—also a 500-point event—are Fernando Verdasco and Fernando Gonzalez. They will be tested by a strong clay-court field, with John Isner acting as an impostor among the eight seeded players. Juan Carlos Ferrero is also part of the Acapulco draw and he will be looking for his third title in as many weeks.
  
  Based on the quality of those two fields, it’s hard to imagine anyone paying serious attention to Delray Beach, where Tommy Haas headlines a remarkably weak draw.

   

  Barclays Dubai Tennis Championships

   

  Where: Dubai, UAE
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $1,619,500
  Points: 500

   

  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic (No. 1 seed Roger Federer withdrew)
  Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic

   

  Draw Analysis: Federer did all the other participants a favor by pulling out with a lung infection, but that’s just about where Djokovic’s luck ended. The defending champion and No. 2 seed could go up against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as early as the quarterfinals. Tsonga, however, has to go up against Marseille champion and fellow Frenchman Michael Llodra in the opening round.

   

  Also in Djokovic’s half of the bracket is fourth-seeded Nikolay Davydenko, who has cooled off just a bit following a torrid end to the 2009 season. Davydenko should be able to get back on track by cruising into the Dubai semifinals, as the only apparent danger in his quarter of the draw is Marcos Baghdatis.
  
  Andy Murray is seeded third and would have been on a collision course with Federer for the semifinals, but instead No. 6 seed Marin Cilic looms large as a potential opponent in the last four. Murray and Cilic are in an extremely soft top half of the draw now that Federer is missing, but potential stumbling blocks include Tommy Robredo and seventh-seeded Mikhail Youzhny.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Lukas Lacko over (7) Mikhail Youzhny. Although Youzhny has been in impressive form, he has been dealing with injuries all season; first a wrist problem in Australia and now a hip issue that forced him to retire from the Rotterdam final and pull out of last week’s event in Marseille. Lacko, meanwhile, reached the quarterfinals last week in Memphis. Youzhny should be able to win this if he is 100 percent, but that seems questionable at best right now.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Murray, Marin Cilic, Mikhail Youzhny, Michael Llodra, Marcos Baghdatis, Lukas Lacko, Julien Benneteau, Michael Berrer

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Gilles Simon, Simone Bolelli, Igor Kunitsyn, Andreas Seppi, Jan Hernych

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Murray over Marin Cilic and Nikolay Davydenko over Novak Djokovic

   

  Final Prediction: Murray over Davydenko

   

  Abierto Mexicano Telcel

   

  Where: Acapulco, Mexico
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $600,000
  Points: 500

   

  Top Seed: Fernando Verdasco
  Defending Champion: Nicolas Almagro

   

  Draw Analysis: This field is loaded with clay-court stars, so the tournament should feature high-quality, entertaining tennis from start to finish. Verdasco, the No. 1 seed, does not have an easy path with Juan Monaco possibly in the quarterfinals and an on-fire Ferrero looming as a potential semifinal opponent.
  
  Of course not of the top players are even guaranteed to make it out of the first few rounds. Verdasco’s quarter also includes Lukasz Kubot and Horacio Zeballos, while Ferrero is in a section with Nicolas Almagro, Igor Andreev, and Richard Gasquet.
  
  The seeded contingent in the bottom half of the draw is not quite as impressive, but Gonzalez has to open with Memphis champion Sam Querrey and Thomaz Bellucci is lurking as another major unseeded threat. Isner, a potential quarterfinal opponent for Gonzalez, is the only one of the eight seeds who is not at his best on clay. The 6’9’’ American, however, has no use for a 250-point in Delray Beach and he wants to get some clay-court practice in before next week’s Davis Cup tie at Serbia.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Simon Greul over (5) John Isner. Greul is solid on the slow stuff and Isner is coming off a brutal week in Memphis in which he finished runner-up in singles and won the doubles title (with Querrey, the man who beat him earlier in the day on championship Sunday). Playing two days later is a tough ask, so Isner better be serving bombs because he will not want to play too many baseline rallies against Greul.

   

  Querrey, of course, has the talent and potential to upset Gonzalez, but the quick turnaround from Memphis is going to be difficult. As a result, Gonzalez should be able to hold him off.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Fernando Verdasco, Juan Carlos Ferrero, John Isner, Sam Querrey, Lukasz Kubot, Thomaz Bellucci

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Albert Montanes, Carlos Moya, Richard Gasquet, Oscar Hernandez, Potito Starace, Victor Hanescu

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Juan Monaco over Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Gonzalez over Thomaz Bellucci

   

  Final Prediction: Gonzalez over Monaco

   

  Delray Beach International Tennis Championships

   

  Where: Delray Beach, Florida
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $442,500
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Tommy Haas
  Defending Champion: Mardy Fish

   

  Draw Analysis: It’s still early, but this could end up being the weakest field of the entire year. With all do respect to Michael Russell, who is actually in great form at the moment, it speaks volumes that Russell is seeded at an ATP event. Almost as alarming is the fact that Ivo Karlovic is the No. 2 seed and Benjamin Becker is the No. 3 seed.
  
  As a result, this tournament is completely wide open. Even top-seeded Tommy Haas has been playing dreadful tennis of late, so there is no kind of clear favorite for the wide-open title. Don’t be surprised if seeds tumble early and often, especially in the bottom half of the draw.  Karlovic opens with Memphis semifinalist Philipp Petzschner, James Blake has to go up against fellow American Taylor Dent, Jeremy Chardy faces Xavier Malisse, and Russell could meet defending champion Mardy Fish in round two.
  
  Haas, who lost in the Memphis first round to Malisse, could run into Memphis semifinalist Ernests Gulbis in round two. Gulbis, however, is dealing with a knee injury and he is always susceptible to lose to a qualifier in round one. Delray Beach also features the comeback of former champion Kei Nishikori, who takes on Becker in the first round. Jarkko Nieminen is also a dangerous unseeded floater in the top half.
  
  Sure this field is lacking in the marquee names department, but if nothing else, it will be interesting to see what the heck happens this week.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Philipp Petzschner over (2) Ivo Karlovic. Petzschner also serves huge, so this one will most likely come down to two or three tiebreakers. The German looked good in Memphis last week and played runner-up Isner a lot tougher in the semifinals than Karlovic did in the quarters.
  
  Malisse will have a good shot at taking out Chardy, the No. 4 seed. Chardy was in absolutely awful form until upsetting a tired Verdasco in the Memphis first round. The Frenchman, however, followed that up by retiring to Lukas Lacko in round two due to an illness. It would actually be a bit of a surprise to see the X-Man lose this one.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Evgeny Korolev, Florian Mayer, Michael Russell, Philipp Petzschner

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tommy Haas, Jeremy Chardy, James Blake, Teimuraz Gabashvili, Kei Nishikori, Christophe Rochus, Mardy Fish, Vince Spadea, Robin Haase, Sebastien Grosjean

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Jarkko Nieminen over Tommy Haas and James Blake over Xavier Malisse

   

  Final Prediction: Blake over Nieminen

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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