Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Verdasco, Soderling, Ferrero look for more

  2010-02-15 05:09:01
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  The long February grind continues this week in Memphis, Marseille, and Buenos Aires, and the action should look remarkably similar to the recently-completed proceedings in San Jose, Rotterdam, and Costa do Sauipe. All three of Sunday’s title winners are getting right back into the swing of things, as Fernando Verdasco, Robin Soderling, and Juan Carlos Ferrero will look to maintain their momentum. All three runner-ups will also be following their conquerors around the globe; Andy Roddick joins Verdasco in Memphis, Lukasz Kubot moves on to Buenos Aires with Ferrero, and Mikhail Youzhny—if healthy—will look for revenge against Soderling in Marseille.

   

  Regions Morgan Keegan Championships

   

  Where: Memphis, Tennessee
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $1,100,000
  Points: 500

   

  Top Seed: Andy Roddick
  Defending Champion: Andy Roddick

   

  Draw Analysis: Andy Roddick will not be looking for his second title in as many weeks after losing to Fernando Verdasco on Sunday in San Jose, but he will be going after his second title in as many years at the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships.
  
  Although he is the No. 1 seed in Memphis, the draw did him no favors. Roddick will go up against fellow American James Blake in the very first round. Blake, who drew Lleyton Hewitt in the 2009 first round and lost in three sets, is slumping but at the same time remains dangerous.

   

  If Roddick advances at least two rounds, he could be in line for a duo of rematches. He is on a collision course with Sam Querrey, whom he beat in a third-set tiebreaker in San Jose, for the quarterfinals. Tomas Berdych, whom Roddick ousted in a pair of tiebreakers last week, looms as a potential semifinal opponent. Berdych, however, could first have to get past 2009 Memphis runner-up Radek Stepanek in the quarters.

   

  While the draw appears to be relatively well-balanced, the bottom half is not quite as difficult. A strong crop of unseeded threats will have chances against a seeded contingent featuring No. 2 Verdasco, No. 4 Tommy Haas, No. 6 John Isner, and No. 7 Philipp Kohlschreiber. Haas opens with a difficult test against veteran Belgian Xavier Malisse and he could meet Ivo Karlovic in round two. Kohlschreiber begins his campaign against an in-form Evgeny Korolev and the winner could next run into big-serving Taylor Dent.
  
  Verdasco is clearly favored to reach another ATP final, but he is in a half of the draw with a ton of huge servers who will be tough to deal with on indoor hard courts. Isner, Karlovic, and Dent are capable of making runs.
  

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Evgeny Korolev over (7) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Korolev is starting to make the most of his hard-hitting talent. He enjoyed a stellar fall swing at the end of last season and has remained in fine form throughout the early stages of 2010. Kohlschreiber is in decent form, but he suffered a disappointing loss to Denis Istomin in last week’s San Jose quarterfinals. The German is dominating his head-to-head series with Korolev 4-0, but the Russian is a different player now and should have a slight surface advantage on indoor hard courts.
  
  Haas, seeded fourth, also better watch out for Malisse, who recently upset Stepanek in the San Jose first round. Blake over Roddick is an extreme longshot, what with Blake in a major slump and Roddick still going strong. The No. 1 seed is coming off a long week in San Jose, but this match isn’t until Wednesday night so Roddick has plenty of time to rest.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Roddick, Fernando Verdasco, John Isner, Michael Russell, Ivo Karlovic, Evgeny Korolev

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Radek Stepanek, Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, James Blake, Mardy Fish, Robby Ginepri, Ernests Gulbis, Bobby Reynolds, Jeremy Chardy

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over Tomas Berdych and John Isner over Philipp Kohlschreiber

   

  Final Prediction: Roddick over Isner

   

  Open 13

   

  Where: Marseille, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 512,750 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Robin Soderling
  Defending Champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

   

  Draw Analysis: Robin Soderling just won an even bigger indoor event in Rotterdam, so he has to be considered the favorite as the top seed in Marseille. He will helped by the fact that he gets a first-round bye, so the Swede will not have to play until Wednesday at the earliest.
  
  Soderling also has the benefit of a favorable draw. His nearest seeded player is Marcos Baghdatis, who has been playing well but is still struggling physically and got blown out last week in Rotterdam by Nikolay Davydenko. The toughest competition Soderling could face in the semifinals would come in the form of Mikhail Youzhny or Tommy Robredo. Youzhny just retired against Soderling in the Rotterdam final and Robredo if far better on clay than on indoor hard courts.

   

  The French fans—if not all tennis fans—will be far more interested in the bottom half of the bracket, where Frenchmen Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils have byes. Also looming large are fifth-seeded Gilles Simon, No. 8 seed Julien Benneteau, and in-form veteran Arnaud Clement. Simon has not yet played this season due to a knee injury and he could run into Tsonga as early as the quarterfinals.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Olivier Rochus over (5) Gilles Simon. After being plagued by knee problems throughout 2009, more of the same seems to be in store for Simon this year. The Frenchman is making his 2010 debut in Marseille, having missed the Australian Open and all other tournaments. He says he is healthy, but admits he will need some time to get back in a groove. Rochus is not a huge threat on indoor hard courts and his opponent has home-court advantage, but Simon could be showing signs of serious rust.
  
  Chances of any other first-round upset are slim because four of the seeded players have byes to the second round. Furthermore, the rest of the seeds who are in opening-round action are up against unimposing foes (Baghdatis vs. Brands, Youzhny vs. Rufin, Benneteau vs. Qualifier).

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Robin Soderling, Mikhail Youzhny, Marcos Baghdatis, Denis Istomin

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Gilles Simon, Simone Bolelli, Mischa Zverev, Igor Kunitsyn, Andreas Seppi

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Robin Soderling over Tommy Robredo and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Arnaud Clement

   

  Final Prediction: Tsonga over Soderling

   

  Copa Telmex

   

  Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $600,000
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: David Ferrer
  Defending Champion: Tommy Robredo (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: The Copa Telmex draw looks a lot like that of the Brasil Open. Making their way from Costa do Sauipe to Buenos Aires—among others—are Brasil Open champ Juan Carlos Ferrero, runner-up Lukasz Kubot, Igor Andreev, Albert Montanes, and Ricardo Mello. Ironically, Ferrero and Mello will be going head-to-head in the first round after recently playing each other in the Costa do Sauipe semifinals.

   

  Giving Buenos Aires somewhat of a different look, however, are a trio of well-known veterans. David Nalbandian is set to make his long-awaited comeback from hip surgery, Carlos Moya is returning from a host of injuries, and Argentina’s own Gaston Gaudio—the 2004 French Open champion—has a wild card into the event.

   

  While Moya should enjoy a relatively benign draw, Gaudio is up against countryman Horacio Zeballos in round one and Nalbandian could meet third-seeded Nicolas Almagro in the second round. Kubot, who finished runner-up in doubles as well as singles in Costa do Sauipe, has to make a quick turnaround and battle No. 4 seed Juan Monaco in a difficult opener.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: (WC) Eduardo Schwank over (7) Victor Hanescu. Hanescu ended 2009 in a dismal slump and things have not yet improved in 2010. The 6’6’’ Romanian lost to Roger Federer in the Aussie Open second round and a return to the clay last week in Costa do Sauipe did not help his cause. Hanescu fell in the second round to Ricardo Mello, while Schwank had the tough task of going up against Ferrero in round one. Both of these guys are clay-court specialists; Schwank to an even greater extent. The Argentine has not been playing well, either, but a home-court advantage of sorts should give him a boost.
  
  Also keep an eye on (SE) Kubot vs. (4) Monaco, (WC) Gaudio vs. (8) Zeballos, and Cuevas vs. (5) Montanes.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Juan Carlos Ferrero, Lukasz Kubot, Peter Luczak, Ricardo Mello

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Victor Hanescu, Oscar Hernandez, David Nalbandian, Potito Starace, Juan Ignacio Chela, Carlos Moya, Gaston Gaudio

   

  Semifinal Predictions: David Ferrer over Nicolas Almagro and Juan Monaco over Juan Carlos Ferrero

   

  Final Prediction: Monaco over Ferrer

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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