Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Djokovic, Davydenko return in Rotterdam

  2010-02-08 05:19:01
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  The streak of 12 ATP tournaments in four weeks continues in Rotterdam, San Jose, and Costa do Sauipe. Unlike last week, however, this time the big boys are back. Well, not as many as expected, but four of the Top 10.

   

  2009 Rotterdam finalists Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are not returning and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is on the mend, but Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, and Robin Soderling are all on hand at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament. Andy Roddick leads the way in San Jose, which boasts a relatively strong field considering it’s only a 250-point event. Also in action this week are Fernando Verdasco, Gael Monfils, Radek Stepanek, Tommy Haas, and Juan Carlos Ferrero,

   

  ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

   

  Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 1,445,000 Euros
  Points: 500
  
  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending Champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: This year’s tournament is not as strong as it could have been, but it still boasts a respectable field. World No. 4 and 2009 Rotterdam runner-up Nadal is out with a knee injury and Tsonga recently withdrew due to an abdominal strain. Reigning champion Murray is also out, opting not to defend his title.

   

  Leading the way, therefore, are Djokovic and Davydenko. Djokovic is joined in the top half of the bracket by fellow seeds Gael Monfils, Mikhail Youzhny, and Tommy Robredo. That trio is not especially dangerous on indoor hard courts, although Monfils took Djokovic to a third-set tiebreaker in the Paris final and Youzhny could pose problems if he is healthy. Janko Tipsarevic, Evgeny Korolev, and 2008 Rotterdam champ Michael Llodra are the unseeded threats in this section of the draw.

   

  The bottom half appears far more formidable. Davydenko has a brutal path to the final, at least in the very early stages of the tournament. Up first for the No. 2 seed is Johannesburg champion Feliciano Lopez and if Davydenko can get past the Spaniard, he will face either James Blake or Marcos Baghdatis. A semifinal showdown between familiar foes Davydenko and Soderling could be on tap for the weekend.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Jurgen Melzer over (8) Viktor Troicki. Melzer, a star on indoor hard courts, is coming off a semifinal showing in Zagreb. Troicki is an all-court player who can do just fine indoors, but he has been slumping ever since sustaining a foot injury last summer and he fell to unheralded Michael Berrer in Zagreb. Melzer, who just barely missed out on being seeded in Rotterdam, should actually be considered the favorite in this match.

   

  Upset chances are plentiful throughout the bottom half of the draw. In addition to Melzer-Troicki, Davydenko has a tough test in fast-court specialist Lopez, Soderling—who plays Florent Serra—has been dealing with an elbow problem, and Ljubicic has no gimmie against Julien Benneteau.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko, Thiemo De Bakker, Evgeny Korolev, Michael Berrer, Feliciano Lopez

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Robin Soderling, Viktor Troicki, Robin Haase, Mischa Zverev, Andreas Seppi, James Blake

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Evgeny Korolev and Nikolay Davydenko over Ivan Ljubicic

   

  Final Prediction: Davydenko over Djokovic

   

  SAP Open

   

  Where: San Jose, California
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $531,000
  Points: 250
  
  Top Seed: Andy Roddick
  Defending Champion: Radek Stepanek

   

  Draw Analysis: Even though Rotterdam features three Top 10 players, it’s not entirely top-heavy because the field is impressively deep. In San Jose, however, there are a couple of standouts and then there’s a considerable drop-off.

  Roddick headlines the field as the No. 1 seed, but the top half of the draw is clearly more difficult so the American will have to be on top of his game if he wants to go one step further than last year and reach the final. Roddick should have little trouble in rounds one a two, but he could run into Tomas Berdych in the quarters before a potential semifinal rematch against defending champion Radek Stepanek.

   

  Fernando Verdasco is a big favorite in the bottom half of the draw, especially since new American citizen Tommy Haas has been dealing with both injuries and illness in recent weeks and months. Nobody in Verdasco’s quarter of the bracket is playing well right now, so the second-seeded Spaniard should breeze into a possible semifinal against either Haas or Philipp Kohlschreiber.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Rajeev Ram over (6) Philipp Kohlschreiber. Quite frankly, the seeded players have relatively simple first-round draws, so there is not a whole lot of upset potential. Kohlshreiber, however, could have his hands full with Ram. The German is an all-court player, but he would probably prefer something slower than indoor hard courts. Ram thrives on fast surfaces and fast surfaces only.

   

  The American had a long trip from Johannesburg to San Jose over the weekend, but if he gets a few days to recover, he will have a chance. Ram should at least be competitive if he makes a high percentage of first serves.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Roddick, Michael Russell

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tommy Haas, Sam Querrey, Jeremy Chardy, Ernests Gulbis, Xavier Malisse, Mardy Fish, Teimuraz Gabashvili, Robby Ginepri

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over Radek Stepanek and Fernando Verdasco over Philipp Kohlschreiber

   

  Final Prediction: Roddick over Verdasco

   

  Brasil Open

   

  Where: Costa do Sauipe, Brazil
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $442,500
  Points: 250
  
  Top Seed: Juan Carlos Ferrero
  Defending Champion: Tommy Robredo (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: Juan Carlos Ferrero may be the No. 1 seed, but the draw certainly did not do him any favors. Both Thomaz Bellucci and Richard Gasquet are technically “under-seeded” (Gasquet’s relatively low ranking is due to a brief suspension and Bellucci is a clay-court master who just won a title in Santiago) and both are in the top half of the bracket; Ferrero could meet Gasquet as early in the quarters and Bellucci will almost certainly be waiting for one or the other in the semis.

   

  The bottom half should be completely wide open, with a host of contenders but no overwhelming standouts. Second-seeded Albert Montanes is the No. 2 seed and he has been in fine form of late, but he is in a crowded fourth quarter. Marcel Granollers, Lukasz Kubot, and seventh-seeded Horacio Zeballos are all dangerous, especially on the slow stuff.

   

  Whoever emerges out of the bottom section could meet either Igor Andreev or Pablo Cuevas in the semis. Cuevas does by far his best work on the dirt, while Andreev has emerged from being a clay-court specialist to become a capable all-court player. Still, his best surface is clay and that should help him get out of a recent slump.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: (SE) Joao Souza vs. (5) Victor Hanescu. Hanescu has been in dismal form ever since last summer, but he has to be feeling good about getting back on the clay. Don’t be fooled by his 6’6’’ size; this Romanian can almost be classified as a clay-court specialist. Still, Souza is coming off a semifinal performance in Santiago (thus he got a special exemption into this event and did not need his wild card) and he will have the Brazilian crowd squarely in his corner.

   

  There are plenty of other upset possibilities as well. Granollers owns a clay-court ATP title (2008 Houston) and he should test Zeballos, while Starace can get hot at any moment on the slow stuff and could surprise Andreev if the Russian can’t regain the form that was on display against Roger Federer for three sets at the Australian Open.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Thomaz Bellucci, Peter Luczak, Joao Souza, Lukasz Kubot

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Igor Andreev, Victor Hanescu, Eduardo Schwank, Nicolas Massu, Potito Starace, Oscar Hernandez

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Thomaz Bellucci over Richard Gasquet and Albert Montanes over Frederico Gil

   

  Final Prediction: Bellucci over Montanes

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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