Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Australian Open ends, wild February begins

  2010-01-31 23:07:01
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  The Australian Open is over, but the 2010 season is just getting started. Twelve ATP tournaments are on the schedule over the next four weeks, and it all begins on Monday in Zagreb, Santiago, and Johannesburg. Marin Cilic—the only Top 10 player in action—leads the way in Zagreb, while Fernando Gonzalez and Gael Monfils are the top seeds in Santiago and Johannesburg, respectively.

   

  PBZ Zagreb Indoors

   

  Where: Zagreb, Croatia
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Marin Cilic

  Defending Champion: Marin Cilic

   

  Draw Analysis: Cilic, who successfully defended his Chennai title earlier this season, will be looking to do the same in Zagreb. Already boasting a 10-1 match record on the year, Cilic is the overwhelming favorite to prevail once again. The 6’6’’ Croat will certainly have the crowd behind him on his way to the final, a path that begins against Jan Hajek and could include countryman Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals.
  
  Fellow Croat Ivan Ljubicic is the No. 2 seed and is part of a wide open bottom half of the draw. Looking to challenge Ljubicic for a spot in the final will be Viktor Troicki and Janko Tipsarevic. Those two Serbs are on a collision course for what would be a tough quarterfinal matchup.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Arnaud Clement over (2) Ivan Ljubicic. Both players lost early in Melbourne (Clement in the first round to James Blake, Ljubicic in the third round to Karlovic), but Clement still has to be feeling good about his recent runner-up performance in Auckland, where he held a championship point before losing to John Isner. Ljubicic will have home-court advantage, but Clement is a scrappy defender who can trouble big servers with his rock-solid return.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Marin Cilic, Janko Tipsarevic, Ivo Karlovic, Evgeny Korolev, Arnaud Clement, Lukas Lacko

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Viktor Troicki, Benjamin Becker, Igor Kunitsyn, Simone Bolelli, Mischa Zverev, Philipp Petzschner

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Marin Cilic over Evgeny Korolev and Janko Tipsarevic over Ivan Ljubicic

   

  Final Prediction: Cilic over Tipsarevic

   

  Movistar Open

   

  Where: Santiago, Chile
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $398,250
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Fernando Gonzalez

  Defending Champion: Fernando Gonzalez

   

  Draw Analysis: Gonzalez, who has won this title two straight times and four times overall, is naturally the overwhelming favorite to lift the winner’s trophy once again. Any player who landed on Gonzo’s half of the draw cannot be happy. Oscar Hernandez drew the worst luck and will play Gonzalez in the opening round. The Chilean’s road to the final could include Horacio Zeballos in the quarters and dangerous clay-courter Thomaz Bellucci in the semis.
  
  The bottom section is only slightly more open. Juan Monaco, seeded second, is playing well and is an absolute force on clay. Furthermore, the other seeds in that half (Simon Greul, Pablo Cuevas, and Potito Starace) all look far from imposing at the moment. As long as Monaco can get past Chilean veteran Nicolas Massu in his opener, the Argentine should be in the relative clear.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Peter Luczak over (8) Potito Starace. Luczak is not a clay-court specialist, but his heavy topspin forehand should work well on the surface. Plus, the Australian has enjoyed a strong start to the season. He fared well in Sydney before giving Rafael Nadal a decent test in the first round of the Aussie Open. Starace clearly has an edge being able to play this match on the slow stuff, but Luczak has a good shot at taking out the No. 8 seed.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Fernando Gonzalez, Thomaz Bellucci, Lukasz Kubot

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jose Acasuso, Paul Capdeville, Ricardo Mello, Nicolas Massu

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Fernando Gonzalez over Thomaz Bellucci and Juan Monaco over Simon Greul

   

  Final Prediction: Gonzalez over Monaco

   

  SA Tennis Open

   

  Where: Johannesburg, South Africa
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $442,500
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Gael Monfils

  Defending Champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: Johannesburg is the lone tournament this week without an obvious favorite. A final between the two biggest names—Gael Monfils and David Ferrer—would probably be a toss-up. Of course, there is no guarantee of a Monfils-Ferrer title match. The top-seeded Frenchman is coming off a third-round loss to Isner in Melbourne and his health is always a question mark. He could be tested in the top half of the draw by Jarkko Nieminen and Feliciano Lopez.

   

  Ferrer is an all-court player, but he generally prefers clay over hard courts. As a result, he could be tested by fellow Spaniard Ivan Navarro (who, believe it or not, serves and volleys) in round two. Ferrer’s road to a potential final could also feature Xavier Malisse in the quarterfinals and an in-form Marco Chiudinell in the semis.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Jarkko Nieminen over (7) Yen-Hsun Lu. Nieminen is actually the favorite in this match, but injury after injury has left him below Lu in the ATP rankings. Lu, meanwhile, is in a dismal slump and Nieminen is not the guy you want to play when you are struggling. The Finn is simply too solid from the baseline.
  
  Also keep an eye on Somdev Devvarman vs. (6) Xavier Malisse and (WC) Rik De Voest vs. (5) Rajeev Ram.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Marco Chiudinelli, Stephane Robert

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Xavier Malisse, Yen-Hsun Lu, Dominik Hrbaty, Steve Darcis, Karol Beck

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Gael Monfils over Feliciano Lopez and David Ferrer over Marco Chiudinelli

   

  Final Prediction: Ferrer over Monfils

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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