Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer, Nadal to be tested at Australian Open

  2010-01-15 23:16:57
  

  This is the fourth of Ricky's five-part Australian Open preview series, running through Saturday.
  
  Part 1: Top 25 contenders
  Part 2: Draw preview
  Part 3: Draw analysis
  Part 4: Weekly “Approach Shots”
  Part 5: Full tournament predictions

   

  After a four-month hiatus from Grand Slams, the Australian Open is upon us. And what an Australian Open it could be! The tournament has some big shoes to fill following a 2009 event that ended with two straight five-set marathons. This one, however, has all the makings of another classic.
  
  Heck with thoughts of another Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal final; this 2010 Australian Open is so wide open that Federer and Nadal will be hard-pressed just to reach the semis. Federer has on-fire Nikolay Davydenko in his quarter of the draw and Nadal is in the same section as Andy Murray, who was No. 2 in the world just a few months ago.

   

  So get ready for a wild two weeks in Melbourne!
  
  Australian Open

   

  Where: Melbourne, Australia
  Surface: Plexicushion
  Prize Money: $8,212,600
  Points: 2000
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal

   

  The draw analysis has already been completed and full tournament predictions will be coming soon, so let’s go straight into the potential first-round upsets. None of the top players in the world should be troubled in the opening round, but the same cannot be said for a host of lower seeds.

   

  First-Round Upset Alerts
  
  Ivo Karlovic over (13) Radek Stepanek – This would be a considerable upset based on current form, but not based on their most recent meeting. They squared off last fall in the Davis Cup semifinals and Stepanek prevailed with a stunning 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(6), 6-7(2), 16-14 victory in five hours and 59 minutes. Karlovic set the all-time ace record with 78, and if he serves like that again, a surprise is possible.
  
  Frederico Gil over (15) Gilles Simon – Gil normally would have no chance in this one (at least not on a hard court), but Simon has been dealing with knee problems and he is a major question mark heading into the Aussie Open. And when you are struggling with your movement, a clay-court baseline grinder like Gil is not the kind of player you want to face.

  
  Richard Gasquet over (20) Mikhail Youzhny – This is arguably the best matchup of the entire first round. Youzhny enjoyed a stellar 2009 campaign whereas Gasquet struggled both on and off the court last year. But Gasquet currently finds himself in the final of the Medibank International in Sydney and he has a real shot at making a run in Melbourne.

   

  Robin Haase over (21) Tomas Berdych – Haase has fallen off the tennis map over the past two years due to all kinds of injuries (mainly with his wrist). This could be blowout in Berdych’s favor if Haase is not 100 percent, but the talented Dutchman has displayed recent signs of recovery. Plus you never know which Berdych is going to show up on any given day.

   

  Horacio Zeballos over (27) Philipp Kohlschreiber – Speaking of inconsistency, that is Kohlschreiber in a nutshell. He beat Andy Roddick at the 2008 Aussie Open and upset Novak Djokovic in straight sets at last year’s French Open. But if the German has one of his all-too-frequent off days, Zeballos is consistent enough from the baseline to let his opponent self-destruct.

   

  Nicolas Lapentti over (29) Viktor Troicki – Troicki struggled with both his game and his health last summer, but he is back in decent form. Lapentti, however, still has some tennis life in him at 33 years old. At the 2009 U.S. Open, Lapentti outlasted Stanislas Wawrinka in five sets before being edged by Denis Istomin in another five-set marathon.
  
  Ernests Gulbis over (30) Juan Monaco – Monaco is the seeded player in this matchup, but Gulbis is obviously going to be the favorite by oddsmakers and just about everyone else. He is far more comfortable on hard courts and he beat Monaco in straight sets last fall in Tokyo. Still, Gulbis is basically a rich man’s Berdych; even more talent, but just as mentally fragile.

   

  Denis Istomin over (32) Jeremy Chardy – Chardy is in dreadful form, but Istomin has been slumping ever since the U.S. Open. Istomin, however, should be Grand Slam-confident after his performance in New York (third round) and he will surely make this one competitive if nothing else.

   

  Notable Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form)

   

  Nikolay Davydenko – Shanghai Masters title, World Tour Finals title, Doha title.

   

  Andy Roddick – Recovered from a knee injury to kick off his season with a title in Brisbane.

   

  Radek Stepanek – Semifinals of the Paris Masters, runner-up in Brisbane.

   

  Marin Cilic – Quarterfinals of the U.S. Open, destroyed Nadal en route to a runner-up finish last fall in Beijing, repeated as Chennai Open champion.

   

  Marcos Baghdatis – Title last fall in Stockholm, final in Sydney.

   

  Richard Gasquet – Started to find his form last fall, final in Sydney.

   

  Janko Tipsarevic – Impressive fall season in 2009, semifinals of the Chennai Open.

   

  Arnaud Clement – Semis of Lyon, third round of the Paris Masters, final in Auckland.

   

  John Isner – Final in Auckland, up to No. 33 in the world and climbing.

   

  Notable Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games)

   

  Gilles Simon – Knee problems.

   

  Tommy Haas – Injured as usual.

   

  Sam Querrey – Sliced his right arm in Bangkok and has not won a match since.

   

  Nicolas Almagro – Went from bad to worse last week in Auckland, winning three games total against Marc Gicquel.

   

  Jeremy Chardy – Managed to sneak in as the last of the 32 seeds despite horrible results of late.

   

  Igor Andreev – Drawing Federer in the first round adds some serious insult to injury.

   

  Rainer Schuettler – Something’s gotta give when this former Australian Open runner-up (2003) takes on Querrey in the first round.

   

  Fabrice Santoro – The end is near because the draw did Santoro no favors, pitting the ancient one against Marin Cilic.

   

  Ivo Karlovic – Sure he is in free-fall mode, but one good serving day can turn things around immediately.

   

  Potential Surprises
  
  Marin Cilic – The secret is out on Cilic, so nothing short of the semifinals would come as a surprise. But Cilic has semifinal potential, if not more. His draw (In Roddick and Juan Martin Del Potro’s quarter) is far from taxing, so Cilic has a real chance to make major, major news Down Under.

   

  Marcos Baghdatis – Technically Baghdatis shouldn’t be unseeded, but he is, and thus he is one of the most likely unseeded candidates to make an appearance in the fourth round. He will be favored against both Gilles Simon and Lleyton Hewitt, and given the way he is playing right now, he even has a chance against Federer.

   

  Ernests Gulbis – Gulbis still has not put it all together, but things are looking up (at least compared to last year, which isn’t saying a lot). He made two quarterfinal appearances last fall, then reached the Doha quarters and took Federer to three sets. Gulbis is expected to win his first two Aussie Open matches given his draw, and he does not fear anyone, certainly not Davydenko who consistently underwhelms at slams.

   

  Richard Gasquet – Gasquet has a tough opener against Youzhny, but other than that his draw is favorable. A potential third-round opponent is Tommy Robredo and his nearest Top 8 player is Roddick, whom he could face in round four. With his talent and his current form, Gasquet could be making an appearance in Week 2.

   

  Janko Tipsarevic – One of the most dangerous unseeded players in the draw, Tipsarevic has the benefit of a section riddled with injury-plagued players. He should give up-and-coming American Ryan Harrison a free lesson in round one, then could meet Tommy Haas in round two, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in round three, and Robin Soderling in round four. All three of those guys are question marks due to injury.

   

  Evgeny Korolev – Borat—I mean Korolev—is playing his first Grand Slam as an official citizen of Kazakhstan, and it could be a good one. He is in a 16^th of the draw with fellow ball-bashers Berdych and Fernando Gonzalez, and Korolev matches up well with fellow ball-bashers. He won’t have to playing long points. Plus he has been playing the best tennis of his life recently. A fourth-round showing is unlikely, but it’s possible.

   

  James Blake – Blake is not playing as bad as he was in 2009, and his forehand makes him a threat on any given day. If Del Potro’s wrist really is a problem, Blake has a decent shot at an upset. And of course if he somehow gets past Del Potro, his draw opens up bigtime.

   

  Unseeded players who could at least reach the third round (based on either current form or a favorable draw): Marcos Baghdatis, Ernests Gulbis, Denis Istomin, Richard Gasquet, Robby Ginepri, Lukasz Kubot, Janko Tipsarevic, Feliciano Lopez, Evgeny Korolev, Nicolas Lapentti, James Blake, Jarkko Nieminen, Ivo Karlovic, Julien Benneteau, Mardy Fish, John Isner.

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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