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Ricky Dimon

  • Australian Open preview part 2: Anticipating the draw

    2010-01-13 21:00:24

    This is the second of Ricky's five-part Australian Open preview series, running through Saturday.

    Part 1: Top 25 contenders
    Part 2: Draw preview
    Part 3: Draw analysis
    Part 4: Full tournament predictions
    Part 5: Weekly “Approach Shots”

    Perhaps more than ever before, tennis fans have a plethora of reasons to eagerly await the draw for this year’s Australian Open.

    No clear-cut tournament favorite? Check.

     

    Multiple potential title winners? Check.

     

    Dangerous floaters? Check.

     

    I can’t remember the last time I was undecided on my pick to win a major more than a few days prior to the start of the event. In other words, never before has a Grand Slam draw determined which player I anoint to win it all.

    But that is exactly the case with the Aussie Open.

    It is not up for debate that at least five players (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro, and Andy Murray) have a legitimate shot of winning the title Down Under. You could even argue that as many as 10 guys have a chance to emerge victorious (add Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Roddick, Robin Soderling, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Fernando Verdasco to the previous list).

     

    What this tournament does not have is a particularly notable No. 3 seed. For example, the huge question heading into the 2009 French Open draw was on which side of the draw would Djokovic fall. At the U.S. Open, everyone was interested to see if Nadal (seeded third) would be on the same side as Federer.

     

    Now, however, the field is too deep and too good to worry about No. 3 and No. 3 only. After all, what’s the difference between Djokovic (No. 3) and Del Potro (No. 4)? Both men are Grand Slam champions, both are in great form, and both have extremely realistic chances of winning this whole tournament.

    It starts to get interesting at the No. 5 spot. Murray, who did not defend his 2009 Doha title and thus slipped five points behind Del Potro in the rankings, is seeded fifth just one Grand Slam after being seeded second (2009 U.S. Open). As a result, he will be in the same quarter of the Aussie Open draw as any of the top four players in the world. That could be bad news for one of the top four.

    Then again, what wouldn’t be bad news? The other three players in the 5-8 range are Davydenko, Roddick, and Soderling. Davydenko is on fire, Roddick won the Brisbane title and reached the Aussie Open semis last year, and Soderling is enjoying a meteoric rise. In most slams, at least one or two quarterfinal matches are blowouts. It’s hard to imagine anything of the sort this time around in Melbourne.

    Players never explicitly say what they want in a draw, so I will go ahead and say it for them (or at least take a guess).

     

    Nadal wants Djokovic in his half rather than Del Potro. The difference is minimal, but Nadal is more at the mercy of Del Potro than he is at the mercy of Djokovic since Del Potro is more offensive and more powerful off the forehand side. Nadal surely doesn’t care which 5-8 seed is in his quarter, but he would probably opt for Roddick first, then Soderling, Murray third and Davydenko last.

     

    Federer also wants Djokovic in his half and Roddick (whom he owns) in his quarter. The world No. 1 would also take Soderling (he is still perfect against the Swede in official tournaments) in his quarter over Murray and Davydenko.

    Djokovic wants to be in Nadal’s half and he wants anyone other than Roddick in his quarter (ideally Soderling, then Davydenko).

     

    Murray wants to be in either Del Potro’s or Djokovic’s quarter so that he can avoid Federer and Nadal until at least the semis. Roddick wants to be in Djokovic’s quarter (or anyone other than Federer’s) and Nadal’s half. Same for Soderling.


    Davydenko, as usual, doesn’t care about anything. He will just go about his business crushing people early in the tournament, and then he will deal with the top players later.

     

    Of course, there is a chance none of that will matter because the top players—and all of the 32 seeds—will be challenged by an extraordinary amount of “dangerous floaters” in this field. You know, the guys who for some reason or another are not ranked very high, but have a ton of potential to wreak havoc on the draw.

    Enter Cheryl Murray for some commentary on the “dangerous floaters”:

    ---------------

     

    These aren’t guys who are necessarily contenders for the title, but they’re dangerous and unseeded and they could end up spoiling the party for any number of Top 10 hopefuls.

     

    Ernests Gulbis – Gulbis is the lowest-ranked among my list of floaters, but don’t let the No. 84 world ranking fool you, though.  The 21-year-old Latvian played better than Roger Federer last week for a set and a half before finally conceding defeat.  When he’s bad, he’s diabolical, but this kid can play tennis, make no mistake about that.

     

    Richard Gasquet - At No. 53, Gasquet still has some way to go before he regains the form that saw him into the top 10.  But chances are that the Frenchman did not forget how to hit a backhand during his four-month absence from the sport.  If Gasquet were to hit a hot streak in Melbourne, there are very few Top 10 players that he couldn’t trouble.

     

    Evgeny Korolev - Korolev is only ranked 52nd in the world, but in the span of one year, he’s moved from No. 118 to where he is now, so he is one to watch.  His stock is also on the rise at the Australian Open because he has been fierce on hard courts for the past few months.

     

    Julien Benneteau - Maybe this Frenchman isn’t as dangerous on plexicushion as he is on carpet, but his fiercely-paced serve and forehand should not be discounted.  Consistency has long been a problem for Benneteau, but he doesn’t have to be consistent in order to go on a hot streak and knock out a contender.

     

    James Blake - Pundits and fans alike were ready to write off Blake as a lost cause after his horrible season in 2009.  But Blake put together a couple of good matches in Brisbane last week and his forehand was clicking nicely.  He could cause problems if he draws one of the more defensive players in the top 10.

     

    Marcos Baghdatis - Baghdatis could be the most dangerous floater of all.  The Cypriot vacillates wildly between playing horrible tennis and playing brilliant tennis.  The bad news for the rest of the draw in Melbourne is that he sometimes plays brilliantly for more than one match.  And his brilliant is really quite brilliant.

     

    Ivo Karlovic - Critics are quite fond of calling Karlovic “all serve.”  And for all intents and purposes, they are right.  Except that they forget to mention that it might be the single winning-est shot in all of tennis.  That shot got him to a career-high 14th in the world, and he is still in the top 40 (37) because of it.  One good serving day (and let’s face it, with Karlovic that’s bound to happen sooner or later) and we have an upset in the making.

     

    Janko Tipsarevic - Tipsarevic is a question mark – but that’s what makes him so dangerous.  The Serb goes through periods of time in which he plays like he’s in the top 20.  He serves big, finds his range on groundstrokes, and moves well.  And then there are times when he can barely keep the ball in the court.  Since he just made the semifinals in Chennai, he appears to be on the “top 20” road at the moment.

     

    ---------------

     

    Also keep an eye on the draw placement of Verdasco, Tsonga, and Marin Cilic. Verdasco reached the semifinals last year, Tsonga is a former Aussie Open runner-up (2008), and Cilic is one of the hottest players on tour right now.

    Verdasco and Tsonga will be slated to meet an unlucky Top 8 player in the fourth round, while one of the Top 4 will be on a brutal collision course with Cilic for round four. Nobody in their right mind wants that.

    Without a doubt this is one of the most wide open Grand Slams in years. The draw will only begin to clear up what is a fascinating picture.

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Comments

Throw in Cilic, Gonzo, Youzhny, Isner, and a few others and you are talking complete chaos...just the way I like it.

thefanchild , 1/13/10 9:26 PM


blimey. this really is gonna be fascinating to watch. here's hoping rafa gets the draw he wants :P :D

Sib69 , 1/13/10 9:28 PM


TFC - Cilic was mentioned.

Isner would normally be atop the dangerous floaters section as the highest-ranked player who isnt seeded, but Cheryl INSISTS that someone will pull out and Isner will get a seed.

RickyDimon , 1/13/10 9:31 PM


Ferrero is gonna pull out. Mark my words.

cherylmurray , 1/13/10 9:33 PM


Is Monfils in or out? He was not on your preview for part 1 either.

chr18 , 1/13/10 10:03 PM


cheryl,

Thanks for putting together all this information. This is the one I was anxious to see. In every grand slam there seems to be a giant killer that comes almost out of nowhere to take out one of the top guys. Now we know who to keep an eye on at the AO. It's the early rounds that usually make me the most nervous.

I know most of these guys, but there are a few with whom I am not that familiar. Now I know who to keep an eye on for any surprises.

Isner could be trouble whether he's seeded or not.

I can't wait to see the draw on Friday. That should give us a better picture. I look forward to either you or Ricky giving us an updated preview after the draw has come out.

Nativenewyorker , 1/13/10 10:06 PM


Native - as you can see at the top, I will be doing "draw analysis" immediately after the draw comes out

Cheryl will also be doing live commentary during the draw ceremony so that we have a place to talk about it as it happens

RickyDimon , 1/13/10 10:13 PM


when is the draw made?

Sib69 , 1/13/10 10:24 PM


You guys, cheryl and ricky, are just brilliant! Can't wait.....

deuce , 1/13/10 10:27 PM


No question is going to be a fascinating AO. So many contenders, all hungry for their shot at a Major title are sure to put on a great show. I think Rafa is slightly favorite to win, being the defending champion, good with heat, having been working hard recently, getting relatively good results in the last two events, experience winning Majors, and his legendary mental toughness and stamina seem to be almost completely back. Federer is the next favorite, and after him I would go with 3-Delpo, 4-Djokovic, 5-Roddick, 6-Davydenko, 7-Murray, 8-Soderling and 9-Verdasco, in that order.

grafight , 1/13/10 10:29 PM


Sib - it's 11:00 pm GMT.

cherylmurray , 1/13/10 10:51 PM


11pm today? as in in 50 minutes time?

Sib69 , 1/13/10 11:10 PM


no. Tomorrow night.

cherylmurray , 1/13/10 11:17 PM


ok. thanks cheryl :)

Sib69 , 1/13/10 11:46 PM


Ricky,

Sorry, you are correct. It's right there for all to see. I should read more carefully, but I was kind of anxious to get to the article itself, so I skipped over that part.

I appreciate your patience in pointing out the obvious! :)

Nativenewyorker , 1/13/10 11:48 PM


Ricky, Cheryl, or anybody who may know,
I noticed del Potro and Tsonga only played one round in Kooyong and they have been replaced by Murray and Querrey. Any known injuries to report?

chr18 , 1/14/10 3:43 AM


On a related note, Verdasco just thrashed Djoker 6-1,6-2. Could he be regaining last year's form?

chr18 , 1/14/10 3:52 AM


chr - they aren't injured. There was a bunch of weirdness with the schedule because Federer had them hold his spot for so long. And by the time it had opened up, Murray didn't want the spot for the whole time anymore. So they're....time-sharing some of the slots.

Querrey lost early in Sydney and wanted more warm up time, so they just squeezed him in as well.

cherylmurray , 1/14/10 4:32 AM


oophs! Verdasco thrashing Djoker is quite scary. Looks like both Verdasco and Djoker are regaining thier last years form.

atul1985 , 1/14/10 4:48 AM


Thanks Cheryl, that's good to know they're not injured.

chr18 , 1/14/10 4:59 AM


This is shaping up to be probably the most interesting draw since the dawn of the WEAK ERA in 2003. There's a chance that one of Fed/Nadal might end up facing Murray in the QF and Delpo in the SF. If that happens, and for whichever of the top 2 seeds it happens, that guy is NOT winning the AO Open. That's for sure.

Both Fed and Nadal would be wishing for Delpo to land in the opposing quarter. The tall Argentinian is shaping out to be a nightmare for the top 2 seeds. Especially Nadal.

AO favorites : 1) Federer 2) Del Potro 3) Nadal 4) Djokovic/Murray 5) Soderling. I can't see anyone else winning (other than these 6 players)

imjimmy , 1/14/10 5:22 AM


And as I type the above comment implicitly discounting Verdasco's chances to win the AO, the Spaniard thrashes Djokovic 6-1, 6-2 playing some really good tennis.
What does Verdasco do during the off-season with Reyes in Vegas?

imjimmy , 1/14/10 5:39 AM


So Verdasco also has a chance to win? That will make it six players, imjimmy?

Ricky, I like your comments about Davydenko, that he doesn't care about anything. Yes, that's what I thought about him too, he couldn't care less now which quarter he lands in, as he is capable of beating all the top four seeds!! He is also capable of beating seed no.5, 7-10 too! Its so amazing what Davy can do now. I think one player he wouldn't like to meet is Cilic, as he does not have a good H2H against Cilic. Who knows, maybe this year we'll have two hot streak players - Davy and Cilic!

luckystar , 1/14/10 7:17 AM


I should say 'That will make it seven players'.

luckystar , 1/14/10 7:24 AM


i dont know where to post this.........i feel this is the better spot

New Zealand would be well served by a World Cup-style tennis tournament proposed by the ATP Player Council, Tennis New Zealand chief executive Steve Walker says.

World No 3 Novak Djokovic, a member of the players' council, along with the world's top two players Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, was involved with the World Cup proposal, which had been submitted to the All England Club, the United States Tennis Association and Tennis Australia.

"It's all fresh and it's all ideas," Djokovic told media.

"We didn't decide to put anything on an official term because we have to consider other sides as well. But the main point is that we are trying to make this sport improve and get better and players are most important - this is the bottom line."

The World Cup proposal, which suggested a biennial 32-team, 10-day tournament, featuring shorter matches in which players have to watch the clock between points and including compulsory mid-match substitutions, was greeted cautiously by the International Tennis Federation (ITF).

"This proposal, also shown to the ITF, has some interesting elements and, of course, timely branding, given the current worldwide fascination with the 2010 Fifa World Cup.

Article continues below
It also has many challenges that must be faced if it is to succeed," the ITF said in a statement.

"Everyone is in agreement that a nation versus nation format is very attractive, something Davis Cup has recognised for over a century, and only time will tell if a new competition can earn a regular place in the tennis calendar."

Tennis New Zealand's Walker told NZPA he thought a World Cup was an exciting concept and had a real chance of going forward.

"If it was a bunch of unknown event managers or marketers talking about it I'd be sceptical, but if you've got Djokovic talking about it and it's backed by Federer and Nadal, it's going to gather some momentum. It's got some clout."

The proposed tournament had the potential to serve New Zealand well, he said.

"If you look where we're at in Fed Cup, we're not able to make the top 16 at the moment, and in Davis Cup, with the world group 16 countries and Asia-Oceania group one eight countries, there're 24 countries ahead of us, so I think top 32 would be a realistic aspiration for us at the moment, and a good stepping stone," Walker said.

"Depending on the format, the time of year, the cost, we would be very open-minded about it."

vrael , 1/14/10 8:31 AM


Everyone wants to be in Djokovic quarter... man who win AO two years ago... strange... he was not so bad last year at all...

atg , 1/14/10 11:49 AM


chr - I was incorrect...one of the guys IS injured. The rest of them are just playing with a crazy schedule, but Del Potro actually is injured. Wrist injury. I'm going to post an article about it.

cherylmurray , 1/14/10 1:17 PM


Wow this is a damper already. The Sod and del Potro are hurt and Djoker can't take the heat. Maybe this won't turn out to be so competitive after all.

chr18 , 1/14/10 2:26 PM


If Delpo pulls out, Murray will be seeded 4 after all.

carrie , 1/14/10 2:29 PM


What on earth happened to Djoker against Verdasco? Anyone see it?

Cheryl, yes but IS delpo injured?! Looking forward to your article ...

alex , 1/14/10 2:40 PM


Why do players have injuries so early in the season? Are they new injuries or old ones that flare up again? I think both Delpo and Soderling should not rush into tournaments if they have not properly recover from their injuries. I think Murray missed some tournaments in order to let his wrist fully recover, a wise decision.

luckystar , 1/14/10 3:03 PM


alex - yes, it appears he is injured. His people won't say how badly though. The article is up.

cherylmurray , 1/14/10 3:16 PM


none of them are "injured." Maybe "hurt," but not "injured."

Delpo will be fine.

RickyDimon , 1/14/10 3:27 PM


alex, i found this from Martin Boulton:

The winner of the most-recent grand slam title, 2009 US Open champion Juan Martin Del Potro, and 2009 French Open finalist Robin Soderling withdrew from Kooyong's Classic yesterday with a wrist and elbow injury respectively, forcing organisers of the eight-man event to reshuffle remaining matches.

It was clear, however, that both Del Potro and Soderling were merely being cautious with their bodies and unless there was a further aggravation at the weekend, there seemed little chance that either would miss the Australian Open. Del Potro practised yesterday morning, withdrawing some hours later.

Soderling, the eighth-ranked player in the world, pulled out of his match against Ivan Ljubicic after losing the first set (6-4), due to a sore elbow - an injury that the Swede said had troubled him ''on and off'' for six months, having first surfaced at Wimbledon last year. ''Today, I felt it a little bit more, so I didn't want to take any risks,'' he said.

Del Potro, seeded fourth and one of the favourites to win the Australian Open (he is behind only Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in betting) was likewise playing it safe with his wrist.

maxi , 1/14/10 7:33 PM


This is the latest following the suspension of Yanina Wickameyer for missing her drugs test:

Along with her compatriot Xavier Malisse, who also received a one-year suspension for similar infractions, Wickmayer appealed and, on December 14, a civil court in Brussels ruled that the Flemish Anti-doping Tribunal?s decision had violated European human rights conventions and revoked the suspensions. (The cases are on appeal at the Court of Arbitration for Sport, with a decision is expected within three months.)

That was good news for Wickmayer but it came a week after the entry date, December 7, for the Australian Open and so she could only play with a wildcard or via the qualifying.

When her request for a wildcard was turned down, she had no option but the qualifying.

carrie , 1/14/10 9:25 PM


Correction:

When her request for a wildcard was turned down, she had no option but to qualify.

carrie , 1/14/10 9:28 PM



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