Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Final Australian Open tune-ups in Sydney and Auckland

  2010-01-10 02:51:59
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  It’s a big week in tennis, but not exactly in terms of ATP tournament action. With the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the year, just one week away, players are going about their respective business in an attempt to fine-tune their games for the big event. After a loaded week in Doha, Brisbane, and Chennai, most of the top guns are either resting or playing a few exhibition matches at the annual Kooyong Classic. The result is two decent but wide open fields in Sydney and Auckland.

   

  Medibank International

   

  Where: Sydney, Australia

  Surface: Hard

  Prize Money: $484,750
  Points: 250

  Top Seed: Gael Monfils

  Defending Champion: David Nalbandian (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: A handful of players in the Sydney draw are accustomed to being a part of the seeded ranks, so the result is a host of exciting potential early-round matchups.
  
  Richard Gasquet and Feliciano Lopez will do battle in a tough opener, while Dudi Sela and Stanislas Wawrinka will meet for the second straight week (Chennai semifinals) if Sela can get past Julien Benneteau. Mardy Fish, who missed the second half of last season with an injury, could face fellow American Sam Querrey in the second round.
  
  If one half of the draw is more difficult, it has to be the bottom section. The third quarter features Lleyton Hewitt, Viktor Troicki, and Stanislas Wawrinka. Whoever emerges from there could meet Querrey, Fish, Tomas Berdych, or Evgeny Korolev in the semifinals.
  
  With No. 1 seed Gael Monfils struggling physically and the third-seeded Wawrinka coming off a long week in Chennai, the top half of the draw is wide open. Almost everyone has at least a remote shot of going all the way to the final, with a likely candidate being the winner of the Gasquet-Lopez showdown.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: The top four seeds get byes into round two, so there are only a few shots at a significant surprise in the opening round. Korolev has a ton of talent and he started putting it all together late last year, so the fifth-seeded Querrey could be in trouble. Additionally, the qualifier who ends of drawing seventh-seeded Igor Andreev will have an opportunity to advance, as Andreev has been slumping.
  
  In the second round, Wawrinka will be severely tested against either Sela or Benneteau. The Swiss barely scraped past Sela in Chennai and Benneteau enjoyed a strong second half of his 2009 campaign.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Stanislas Wawrinka, Dudi Sela

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Sam Querrey (injury), Igor Andreev, Benjamin Becker, Potito Starace, Mardy Fish (injury)

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Richard Gasquet over Dudi Sela and Lleyton Hewitt over Tomas Berdych

   

  Final Prediction: Hewitt over Gasquet

  
  

  Heineken Open

   

  Where: Auckland, New Zealand

  Surface: Hard

  Prize Money: $355,500
  Points: 250

  Top Seed: Tommy Robredo

  Defending Champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: Looking at the field, you would think this is a warmup event for the French Open, not the Australian Open. Clay-courters left and right.
  
  Look no further than the top four seeded players who have byes to the second round: Tommy Robredo, David Ferrer, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Juan Monaco. Also partaking in Auckland are Juan Monaco, Albert Montanes, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Horacio Zeballos, and Thomaz Bellucci.
  
  Like Sydney’s tournament, this Auckland event also features some dangerous unseeded floaters. David Nalbandian is finally back from hip surgery and he faces a blockbuster first-round encounter with Philipp Kohlschreiber. John Isner narrowly missed out on a seed but will have a surface advantage against Garcia-Lopez. Bellucci and Marco Chiudinelli are both playing impressive tennis right now, but one will be out after round one.
  
  Aside from Nalbandian, the best players in Auckland generally prefer clay, so the title is completely up for grabs. In the top half of the draw, Robredo and Ferrero should be tested by Isner, Monaco, and/or Zeballos (all in Robredo’s quarter).
  
  In the bottom half, Ferrer and Almagro will face competition from Kohlschreiber, Nalbandian, Bellucci, Chiudinelli, Jurgen Melzer, and Jeremy Chardy.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Nalbandian over (5) Kohlschreiber. Nalbandian is a bit of a wild card (not literally) in this field, as he is playing his first ATP tournament in almost a year. The Argentine fared relatively well in some exhibitions during the offseason, so it is probably a good bet that is nearing 100 percent. Kohlschreiber was far from stellar throughout the second half of 2009, so Nalbandian is probably the favorite in the eyes of the public to win this clash.
  
  Also keep an eye on Zeballos vs. (7) Monaco. Monaco had a respectable 2009 campaign, but he picked up almost all of his match victories on clay. Zeballos also likes the slow stuff, but he made a surprise appearance in the St. Petersburg final last fall.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Tommy Robredo, David Ferrer, Juan Carlos Ferrero, John Isner, Horacio Zeballos, Thomaz Bellucci, Marco Chiudinelli,

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): David Nalbandian (injury), Sebastien Grosjean, Jeremy Chardy

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Juan Carlos Ferrero over Tommy Robredo and David Ferrer over David Nalbandian

   

  Final Prediction: Ferrer over Ferrero

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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