Ricky Dimon

• 2010 World Tour Finals predictions

  2010-01-08 22:40:51
  

  While it probably seems like the 2009 World Tour Finals just ended, the new race to London is already underway. And that means it is time for my annual predictions of the eventual year-end championship participants. Here they are, in order from 1-8:
  
  1. Roger Federer – Federer finished 2009 at the top spot and while he was far from dominant over the last few months of the season, nothing suggests he is on the precipice of a major decline. His days of winning multiple slams in a single year could be over, but he might not have to in 2010 given the current parity and depth in men’s tennis. One major title and a host of impressive showings at Masters events should be enough for Federer to finish No. 1 yet again.

   

  2. Novak Djokovic – Nobody won more matches than Djokovic in 2009, but he came up short at all of the slams and that’s why his bid to surpass Nadal and/or Federer never got legs. Still, Djokovic was outstanding at times last season and there is no reason to think that he can’t put it all together at a major—or two—in 2010. With his consistency and propensity for good health, look for the Serb to finish 2010 at No. 2.

   

  3. Rafael Nadal – No. 2 in 2007, No. 1 in 2008, No. 2 in 2009…No. 1 in 2010? With Nadal seemingly back in near-perfect shape, that is certainly a possibility. But don’t bank on it. Nadal will have to stay healthy from start to finish in 2010 in order hold off a host of challengers, and—for him—that is much easier said than done. If Nadal is wise, he will limit his schedule, including a pass on the Madrid Masters. But that also means he must make the most of every event he enters, and with so many tournaments on hard courts, Nadal will be hard-pressed to finish above No. 3.

   

  4. Andy Murray – Murray briefly overtook Nadal for the No. 2 ranking last summer, but he was upset by Marin Cilic in the fourth round of the U.S. Open and never really recovered. Like Djokovic, Murray was consistent but never came up huge at a slam. He will have to end that trend if he wants to move back up, and if he even wants to stay ahead of Juan Martin Del Potro.

   

  5. Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro has the talent to win multiple slams in 2010 and finish the year as the No. 1 player in the world. But can he stay healthy enough to do it, or even come close to doing it? The 21-year-old Argentine played a ton of tennis last season (because he won so much) and his body finally broke down following his U.S. Open triumph. What’s to say it will hold up under the weight of so many matches this time around? Until he becomes more consistent, Del Potro will have to be content at No. 5.

   

  6. Nikolay Davydenko – Davydenko ended 2009 on fire, winning both the Shanghai Masters and the World Tour Finals. Arguably looking like the best player in the world right now, at least from the back of the court, Davydenko has never realized his potential at a Grand Slam. Until he does, it is hard to put him on the same pedestal as that of the current top five players in the world. The Australian Open is critical for Davydenko. He will be one of the favorites, but if he loses early, his lack of confidence at slams will linger and his status as a Top 5 also-ran could remain.

   

  7. Andy Roddick – Barring a significant injury to one of the top players in the world, six spots in the 2010 World Tour Finals already seem virtually guaranteed. That leaves two open. Roddick, who qualified for the 2009 year-ender before being forced out with a knee injury, should have the inside track on one of the vacancies if he stays healthy. His serve is lethal enough that he will continue to rack up ranking points on hard courts and grass, and he showed signs of life on clay as well in 2009. The 27-year-old is not done yet!

  
  8. Marin Cilic – You can often count on one "sleeper" crashing the World Tour Finals, and this year all signs point to Cilic being exactly that candidate. Of course, Cilic would not really be coming out of nowhere; it would just be a minor surprise to see him storm all the way into the Top 8. His talent was on display in a U.S. Open victory over Murray and in an utter thrashing of Nadal last fall. Furthermore, Cilic has no kind of injury history whatsoever. The 21-year-old Croat currently No. 14 in the world and he is not far from No. 10. This is his time.

   

  Outside looking in
  
  Robin Soderling – Soderling definitely has the game to make a return trip to the World Tour Finals. Nonetheless, it’s hard to imagine him duplicating his clay-court performance (French Open final) and he is somewhat injury-prone as well.

  
  Fernando Verdasco – Verdasco did well to reach the WTFs in 2009 and the fact that he is a threat on all surfaces helps him a great deal. Still, his serve often goes in the tank and he there are too many tournaments for which he barely even shows up.

  Gael Monfils – Monfils has all the tools necessary to be a consistent Top 10 player, but will he ever stay healthy enough to live up to his talent? The smart bet on that question is “no.”

   

  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Like Monfils, Tsonga is an electrifying Frechman who has Grand Slam champion written all over him. Physical problems, however, remain a major issue and his season is not off to a good start in that regard.
  
  Longshots
  
  Tomas Berdych – At 24, Berdych still has time to finally—finally—realize his potential. His mental game, however, is questionable at best and he has never fared well against the best players in the world. Both of those things need to change if he wants any shot at the WTFs.
  
  Gilles Simon – Simon is a master at making opponents beat themselves, and that worked to perfection in 2008. Now, however, the men’s tour is too deep and too good for players like Simon to reach the top. Simon has more talent than most people give him credit for, but not enough to snag a London spot.
  
  Dropping out of World Tour Finals discussion:
  
  Fernando Gonzalez – Gonzalez had another big year in 2009 and was even two games away from the French Open final. At 29, however, age and injuries are beginning to be a concern.

   

  Radek Stepanek – Like Gonzalez, Stepanek was outstanding in 2009. But he has never been a factor in Grand Slams and, at 31 years old, it’s probably too late for him to start.

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