Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer, Nadal kick off 2010 ATP Tour season

  2010-01-04 05:09:37
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Welcome back, tennis fans.
  
  The 2010 ATP World Tour season is upon us and it will get started with a bang; more specifically, with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Federer and Nadal, who are taking part in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, are two of four Top 10 players in action this week as the year begins in Doha, Brisbane, and Chennai. Andy Roddick is the No. 1 seed at the Brisbane International while Robin Soderling leads the way in Chennai.
  
  Qatar ExxonMobil Open
  
  Where: Doha, Qatar
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $1,024,000
  Points: 250 Top Seed: Roger Federer
  Defending Champion: Andy Murray (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: You can bet this will be the first AND last 250-point event of 2010 in which both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are present.
  
  In Doha, there's Federer and Nadal, then there's Nikolay Davydenko, and then there's everyone else. As such, a key question of the draw ceremony centered on which side of the draw Davydenko would fall. Normally the Russian not considered to be an extremely dangerous threat to the top players, but he changed that notion by toppling both Federer and Nadal at the World Tour Finals (and Nadal in Shanghai, as well).
  
  Davydenko ended up in Federer's half of the Doha draw, but the No. 3 seed has some work to do before a potential semifinal with the top-ranked Swiss. Up second for Davydenko could be an in-form Marco Chiudinelli and Ivo Karlovic looms large--literally--as a possible quarterfinal opponent. Federer, meanwhile, should ease through a soft top quarter of the draw on his way to the last four.
  
  Nadal should also storm into the semifinals, although his toughest early-round match could come in his opener against Simone Bolelli. No. 4 seed Mikhail Youzhny (if he makes it that far) can be expected to make life difficult on Nadal in the semis. Youzhny has a strong history against the second-ranked Spaniard and he has crushed Nadal in a season-opening event once before (2008 Chennai final).
  
  First-round upset alert: Ernests Gulbis over (6) Albert Montanes. Gulbis was generally recognized as the most disappointing player on tour in 2009, and for good reason. Nonetheless, the 21-year-old Latvian displayed some semblance of good tennis last fall after hiring new coach Hernan Gumy. Furtheremore, Gulbis is a stellar hard-court player and Montanes makes his living on clay. Gulbis destroyed Montanes in the first round of last year's Australian Open, but they have gone in different directions since then. Montanes should win this, but a Gulbis upset would not come as an absolute shock.
  
  Feeling Good: Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Nikolay Davydenko, Mikhail Youzhny, Marco Chiudinelli, Evgeny Korolev
  
  Flying South: Ivo Karlovic, Ernests Gulbis, Potito Starace, Simone Bolelli
  
  Semifinal predictions: Roger Federer over Nikolay Davydenko and Rafael Nadal over Olivier Rochus
  
  Final prediction: Federer over Nadal
  
  
  Brisbane International
  
  Where: Brisbane, Australia
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $372,500
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Andy Roddick
  Defending Champion: Radek Stepanek

  
  Draw Analysis: With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in Doha and 2009 runner-up Fernando Verdasco still enjoying his offseason, the Brisbane field is not incredibly strong. Still, it features the return of Andy Roddick, who has not won a match since the second round of the U.S. Open mainly due to injury, along with contenders Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, Marcos Baghdatis, and defending champion Radek Stepanek.
  
  Roddick is not the only American coming back from injury in Brisbane. Sam Querrey, who sliced his right arm in Bangkok and missed the last two months of the season, faces a tough opener against countryman James Blake. They are part of a strong bottom half of the draw that also includes Monfils, Stepanek, and Jeremy Chardy. Monfils, however, is up against a dangerous first-round opponent in big-serving Taylor Dent.
  
  Roddick appears to be in a relatively soft top half of the draw. His nearest seeded player is No. 6 Jurgen Melzer, but Melzer will face Richard Gasquet in the second round if the Austrian gets through his opener. Berdych and Thomaz Bellucci are the seeds in quarter two of the draw, which also includes Baghdatis.
  
  First-round upset alert: Blake over (5) Querrey. Blake suffered through a dismal 2009 campaign in which he dealt with a foot injury during the hard-court summer swing and slumped even when he was healthy enough to take the court. The veteran also parted ways with long-time coach Brian Barker. Nothing suggests that Blake is ready to recover his form of old in 2010, but Querrey also comes with question marks. Querrey will no doubt be rusty and even though he should get this one, a Blake victory would not come as a shock.
  
  Also keep an eye on Dent vs. Monfils. While Monfils should win it, Dent has the game to trouble the Frenchman, as Monfils likes to partake in grueling baseline rallies. Dent, however, owns a massive serve and almost always follows into the net.
  
  Feeling Good: Radek Stepanek, Gael Monfils, Marcos Baghdatis, Taylor Dent
  
  Flying South: Andy Roddick (injury), Sam Querrey (injury), Richard Gasquet, Jarkko Nieminen (injury), Mardy Fish (injury), James Blake, Philipp Petzschner
  
  Semifinal predictions: Roddick over Baghdatis and Monfils over Stepanek
  
  Final prediction: Monfils over Roddick
  
  
  Chennai Open
  
  Where: Chennai, India
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $398,250
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Robin Soderling
  Defending Champion: Marin Cilic
  
  Draw Analysis: Marin Cilic cannot be disappointed with his potential path to a second consecutive title in Chennai. In a relatively weak bottom section, Cilic is set to open with a slumping Igor Kunitsyn and his nearest seeded opponent is Simon Greul.
  
  Assuming the 6'6'' Croat reaches at least the semifinals, he could run into No. 4 seed Janko Tipsarevic. The Croat, however, is part of a wide open third quarter of the draw that also includes wild card Carlos Moya, Rajeev Ram, and 2009 runner-up Somdev Devvarman. After leading India to the Davis Cup World Group last fall and having reached last year's final, Devvarman should enjoy overwhelming crowd support.
  
  No. 1 seed Robin Soderling will need to maintain his outstanding current form if he wants to live up to his billing as the Chennai favorite. Soderling will begin against Robby Ginepri and he is on a collision course with Stanislas Wawrinka for the semifinals.
  
  First-round upset alert: (WC) Moya over (4) Tipsarevic. Moya has not played an ATP match since February and he is 33 years old, but he showed signs of like in some exhibition outings during the current offseason. The Spaniard has a good history in Chennai and it would not be shocking to kick off what could be his final season on tour with an upset win.
  
  Also look for Ram to be tested against up-and-coming Dutchman Thiemo De Bakker. Ram will have to serve well because he does not want to get into baseline rallies against De Bakker, who cracked the Top 100 for the first time in 2009.
  
  Feeling Good: Robin Soderling, Marin Cilic, Simon Greul, Thiemo De Bakker
  
  Flying South: Robby Ginepri, Robin Haase (injury), Rainer Schuettler, Carlos Moya (injury), Igor Kunitsyn
  
  Semifinal predictions: Robin Soderling over Stanislas Wawrinka and Marin Cilic over Somdev Devvarman
  
  Final prediction: Cilic over Soderling
  
  Comments and your own predictions are encouraged!

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