Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal ends 2009 with Davis Cup

  2009-12-03 16:25:54
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  It’s not. Over. Yet.

   

  The incredibly long 2009 season continues this weekend and will conclude with one the most coveted titles in tennis. Defending Davis Cup champion Spain hosts the Czech Republic in Barcelona, where the Spaniards will try to go back-and-back and Rafael Nadal will attempt to end his painful—but also successful—year on a high note.

   

  Czech Republic vs. Spain
  

   

  Where: Barcelona, Spain

  Surface: Clay

   

  Czech Republic: Radek Stepanek, Tomas Berdych, Lukas Dlouhy, Jan Hajek

  Spain: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Fernando Verdasco, Feliciano Lopez

   

  Draw
  1) Tomas Berdych vs. Rafael Nadal

  2) Radek Stepanek vs. David Ferrer

  3) Lukas Dlouhy and Jan Hajek vs. Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco

  4) Radek Stepanek vs. Rafael Nadal

  5) Tomas Berdych vs. David Ferrer

   

  How they got here

   

  ***note: Davis Cup ties are best three out of five matches (called “rubbers”) with two singles matches on both Friday and Sunday and a doubles rubber on Saturday. When a team wins three matches (earns three “points”), the tie is clinched and any remaining rubbers are referred to as “dead” rubbers. Prior to a team winning three points, all rubbers are “live.” All live rubbers are three out of five sets; dead singles rubbers are two out of three.***

   

  Czech Republic
  d. France 3-1 in Ostrava, Czech Republic (dead rubbers not included)

  d. Argentina 3-2 in Ostrava, Czech Republic

  d. Croatia 3-0 in Porec, Croatia

   

  Spain
  d. Serbia 3-1 in Benidorm, Spain

  d. Germany 3-2 in Marbella, Spain

  d. Israel 3-0 in Murcia, Spain

   

  It’s no coincidence that the two finalists played a combined five of six Davis Cup ties at home on their way to the final. Having home-court advantage—and with it, the choice of surface—is arguably the most critical factor in Davis Cup. Yes, having star players and a great team helps, but playing on your court in front of your cup-crazy fans is priceless.

   

  The Spaniards, of course, have both. That’s why they are overwhelming favorites to retain the Davis Cup trophy one year after going into Argentina and pulling out a 3-2 victory in the decisive fifth rubber (Verdasco d. Jose Acasuso in five sets).

   

  While I firmly believe that a Spanish win over the Czechs is a foregone conclusion, it would not be unfair to make a counter-argument. The Spaniards have not been entirely dominant during their latest Davis Cup run; although they handled Serbia and Israel with little trouble, Germany took them the distance—on clay, in Spain. After Verdasco dropped the fourth rubber to Philipp Kohlschreiber 8-6 in the fifth set, Juan Carlos Ferrero played the hero role by erasing Andreas Beck in straights.

   

  Furthermore, the Spanish team is quite simply banged up. Verdasco, who went winless at the World Tour Finals, most likely needs offseason foot surgery and is scheduled only for doubles this weekend. Nadal, of course, has endured well-documented problems throughout the second half of this season; knee tendinitis, abdominal strain, and parents’ divorce top the list.

   

  Nonetheless, it is hard to imagine the Czechs capitalizing those issues and pulling off an upset for the ages. At home on indoor hard courts? Sure. In Spain on red clay? In a word, no.

   

  The Czechs are good, but to beat Spain on the road and on clay in the Davis Cup final, you need to be better than good. You can't even be great. You need to be the best. No disrespect to Stepanek and Berdych, but that's not what the are.

   

  Stepanek, at 31 years old, enjoyed an outstanding season in which he has compiled--so far--an impressive 47-20 match record. He is playing well (reached at least the quarterfinals of his past four tournaments) and has the mental strength to handle the pressure of hostile Davis Cup environments (see his incredible 6-7(5), 7-6(5), 7-6(6), 6-7(2), 16-14 victory over Ivo Karlovic in Croatia).

   

  Berdych is younger and more naturally talented than Stepanek, but his mental fortitude has also been--to put it nicely--an issue. He struggles mightily against top players (including 0-4 in his last four meetings with Nadal) and has struggled in general this season. Although still a decent 20th in the world, Berdych is just 36-25 for his 2009 campaign after a dreadful 6-4, 6-4 indoor hard court loss to Tommy Robredo in the Paris second round.

   

  Predictions

  Nadal over Berdych in 3
  Ferrer over Stepanek in 5
  Lopez/Verdasco over Dlouhy/Hajek in 4

   

  Spain 3, Czech Republic 0
  

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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