Ricky Dimon

• Live blog of the World Tour Finals title match - Del Potro vs. Davydenko

  2009-11-29 14:13:41
  

  Well, it's not Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal. It's not Federer vs. Novak Djokovic. It's not even Federer vs. Juan Martin Del Potro. But it IS a final between two of the hottest players on tour right now.

   

  It IS Del Potro vs. Nikolay Davydenko. And it deserves a live blog.

   

  Davydenko beats Del Potro 6-3, 6-4 to win 2009 World Tour Finals: Improbably, Davydenko did one better than last year. After losing to Djokovic in the 2008 final, Davydenko has captured the title at the year-end championships in 2009. It was a brilliant display from start to finish for Davydenko, who prevents Del Potro from taking the No. 4 spot in the world from Andy Murray.
  
  Davydenko 6-3, 5-4: Davydenko remains on fire and breaks at love for a 5-4 lead. Del Potro looks spent, and for good reason. Davydenko is simply pushing him around from the baseline, and the world No. 7 will now serve for the title.
  
  Davydenko 6-3, 3-4: Davydenko is starting to give Del Potro some chances, but he saved two break points at 2-3, one with an ace off BOTH lines and another with a serve-and-volley combination. Del Potro responds to the disappointment with a love service hold. A third set is not out of the question, but Davydenko still looks like the favorite to get it done in straights.
  
  Davydenko 6-3, 2-3: Del Potro saves two break points--and probably his World Tour Finals life--with two big first serves. Still, Davydenko is in complete control. It is taking huge serves or incredible groundstrokes just to win points against Davydenko, who is doing it all. He is even showcasing an impressive net game. Where has THAT been his entire career?
  
  Davydenko 6-3, 1-2: Del Potro appears to be finding the range with his huge forehand, but it hasn't been enough to gain any kind of momentum. Davydenko continues to come up with some huge serving (a rare display, for him) whenever it looks like Del Potro is about to mount a charge. This second set could be good.
  
  Davydenko 6-3, 0-1: Del Potro opens the set with a much-needed hold. He shows some positive energy after a game-ending winner, and looks mad. In other words, looks like he means business. He's going to need some help from Davydenko, however, to really get back in the match.
  
  Davydenko wins the first set 6-3: It's going to take some near-flawless tennis from Del Potro in two straight sets to beat Davydenko. The Russian is positively on fire right now--few errors, incredible angles, great serving, and moving Del Potro all over the place. Davydenko dropped only five points in five service games and won 17 of 19 first-serve points.
  
  Davydenko 5-2: Davydenko saves one break point to hold for 5-2. Del Potro is at least getting into the match, as Davydenko made five unforced errors in the past two games after making none in the first five (partly because Del Potro has started to keep the ball in play). Still, Davydenko has been able to dictate play from the baseline because he is making a ton of first serves. Del Potro is not going to win--or even come close to winning--if he stays on the defensive.
  
  Davydenko 4-1: Davydenko has not made a single unforced error through the first FIVE games of the match. He also has lost only one point in three service games. Del Potro had a chance to hold his service game at 1-2, 40-30, but Davydenko won the next three points. Del Potro is spraying balls all over the place, whereas Davydenko--who has been in the final of the year-end championships before--can't miss.
  
  Davydenko 2-1: Del Potro holds with a second-serve ace at 40-30. That (Del Potro's ability to win free points on serve) COULD end up being the difference in the match. Davydenko does not win many points outright with his serve, but at this rate he won't have to. He holds at love, again, with some great baseline tennis as well as some impressive serving.
  
  Davydenko 1-0: Love service hold for Davydenko to open the match. Solid start for the Russian.
  
  The best news of all, of course, is that ESPN has actually decided to air a non-Grand Slam professional tennis match. And that only means one thing (or more like two things): Cliff Drysdale and Darren Cahill!
  
  Del Potro was just escorted into the arena by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's younger brother (OK, not really. But they look IDENTICAL).... Lars Graf is in the chair, as expected.                                                            
  
                                                                       ----------------------------
  
  Prediction: Del Potro 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-3
  
  How they got here:

  Del Potro
  lost to Andy Murray 6-3, 3-6, 6-2
  beat Fernando Verdasco 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(1)
  beat Roger Federer 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3
  beat Robin Soderling 6-7(1), 6-3, 7-6(3)

   

  Davydenko
  lost to Novak Djokovic 3-6, 6-4, 7-5
  beat Rafael Nadal 6-1, 7-6(4)
  beat Robin Soderling 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3
  beat Roger Federer 6-2, 4-6, 7-5

   

  Pre-match analysis: Del Potro is the clear favorite on paper as the No. 5 player in the world (No. 4 if he wins this match), but this one looks like a toss-up.

   

  Why Del Potro could win: The 21-year-old Argentine has far more power than Davydenko, the biggest edge in that department coming with his serve and forehand. Although the hard court is playing slow, Del Potro still has the capability of overpowering Davydenko on this surface.

   

  Furthermore, Del Potro knows he can win the big one, having triumphed earlier this year at the U.S. Open for his first Grand Slam title. Davydenko has won three Masters shields, but he has always come up short at the majors; this would be the biggest title of his lengthy career.

   

  Why Davydenko could win: Even though the 28-year-old Russian is an underdog, there are plenty of reasons why he can prevail on Sunday. He made it to last year's Masters Cup final (lost to Novak Djokovic), so he will not be at all awe-struck by the occasion. Davydenko also toppled Roger Federer on Saturday for the very first time in 13 career attempts, so he has to be playing with incredible confidence.

   

  Finally, despite not having the offensive weapons of other World Tour Finals like Del Potro, Federer, and Robin Soderling, Davydenko is still a master at moving opponents all over the court. He simply does it with flawless tactics (always playing right at--if not inside--the baseline) and exquisite angles. Del Potro moves well for a man of his size (6'6''), but he will have to be moving extremely well on Sunday.

   

  Head-to-head history: Davydenko 2-1

   

  2007 Paris Masters: Davydenko 7-6(3), 6-1 - Del Potro was just 19 years old at the time of this match and ranked 51st in the world. He had to qualify simply to get into the main draw. After winning one round, he was out of his league against Davydenko, who went on to win his first Masters title.
  

   

  2008 Davis Cup semifinals: Del Potro 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 - With a few more months of experience under his belt and a rowdy Argentine crowd behind him, Del Potro completely turned the tide in this one. Just like their first encounter, however, this one means nothing now.
  

   

  2008 Masters Cup: Davydenko 6-3, 6-2 - After both of Davydenko's victories over Del Potro, the veteran Russian went on to win the tournament. That, of course, will be the case once again on Sunday afternoon. While Davydenko should still be feeling good about having hammered Del Potro at the 2008 year-end champioships, it still doesn't mean much. Del Potro had already made his breakout, but he was not the U.S. Open champion and world No. 1 contender that he is now.

   

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