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2009-11-21 16:16:45
Throughout the eight days leading up to the 2009 World Tour Finals, Ricky has been individually previewing this year’s eight qualifiers, starting with No. 8 and progressing toward No. 1. Last but not least is Roger Federer.
Despite winning last year’s U.S. Open, Federer was the victim of all too many fans writing him off after an uninspiring end to his 2009 campaign. Having lost his No. 1 ranking, Federer fell to Andy Murray at the Madrid Masters, pulled out midway through the Paris Masters, and failed to advance out of Masters Cup group play (losing to Murray and Gilles Simon).
Was Federer done? Less outrageously, was the era of Federer dominance over? Would he ever surpass—or even tie—Pete Sampras’ Grand Slam record?
Those questions grew louder when the Swiss succumbed to nemesis Rafael Nadal in a five-set Australian Open final, and Federer—for a while—had no answer. He promptly lost again to Murray (6-1 in the third set at the Indian Wells Masters) and smashed a racket in a three-set loss to Novak Djokovic in Miami.
The disappointing tennis seemed to be carrying over to the clay-court swing when Federer was upset in the second round of the Monte Carlo Masters by countryman Stanislas Wawrinka before falling to Djokovic in the Rome semifinals.
With no kind of warning, however, the slump ended. Sure enough, Federer would not lose another match until he was the Grand Slam record-holder with 15 men’s singles titles.
How He Got Here
2009 record: 59-10
Grand Slam performances: Australian Open F, French Open W, Wimbledon W, U.S. Open F
Titles: Madrid, French Open, Wimbledon, Cincinnati
Runner-Ups: Australian Open, U.S. Open, Basel
Key Wins
Australian Open QF: d. Juan Martin Del Potro 6-3, 6-0, 6-0
Australian Open SF: d. Andy Roddick 6-2, 7-5, 7-5
Madrid QF: d. Andy Roddick 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-1
Madrid SF: d. Juan Martin Del Potro 6-3, 6-4
Madrid F: d. Rafael Nadal 6-4, 6-4
French Open R4: d. Tommy Haas 6-7(4), 5-7, 6-4, 6-0, 6-2
French Open QF: d. Gael Monfils 7-6(6), 6-2, 6-4
French Open SF: d. Juan Martin Del Potro 3-6, 7-6(2), 2-6, 6-1, 6-4
French Open F: d. Robin Soderling 6-1, 7-6(1), 6-4
Wimbledon SF: d. Tommy Haas 7-6(3), 7-5, 6-3
Wimbledon F: d. Andy Roddick 5-7, 7-6(6), 7-6(5), 3-6, 16-14
Cincinnati SF: d. Andy Murray 6-2, 7-6(8)
Cincinnati F: d. Novak Djokovic 6-1, 7-5
U.S. Open QF: d. Robin Soderling 6-0, 6-3, 6-7(6), 7-6(6)
U.S. Open SF: d. Novak Djokovic 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-5
Head-to-Head vs. other WTF participants
vs. Rafael Nadal: 7-13 (3-3 on hard courts)
vs. Novak Djokovic: 9-5 (7-4 on hard courts)
vs. Andy Murray: 3-6 (3-6 on hard courts)
vs. Juan Martin Del Potro: 6-1 (3-1 on hard courts)
vs. Nikolay Davydenko: 12-0 (8-0 on hard courts)
vs. Fernando Verdasco: 3-0 (1-0 on hard courts)
vs. Robin Soderling: 12-0 (6-0 on hard courts)
Outlook
Although certainly not as topsy-turvy as Nadal’s year, Federer’s history-making 2009 season took the shape of a fascinating bell curve. It started in dismal form, reached a zenith during the summer, then bottomed out again in the fall.
Federer is not quite in the same form that he enjoyed when he triumphed in Madrid, at the French Open (tied Sampras’ record), at Wimbledon (broke the record), and in Cincinnati, but it could be worse. The world No. 1 was actually far more dominant throughout most of the U.S. Open than he was at Roland Garros…until the final. Just as many players have failed to astound since the conclusion of the season’s final major, Federer has not done much since losing to Del Potro the five-set title match.
After handily winning a pair of Davis Cup singles rubbers, Federer fell to Djokovic in the Basel final and dropped his Paris opener to Julien Benneteau. Of course, in 2008 Federer limped into the Masters Cup after not even making it through Paris.
He is in better shape this time around, and in perfect position to finish the year No. 1 in the world. Federer’s group is arguably the weaker—or more like, the less impressive—of the two, with Del Potro struggling physically and Verdasco a longshot making his World Tour Finals debut.
It would come as a significant shock if Federer does not make it out of group play, and he has a great chance of winning the entire tournament. Still, given Djokovic’s form and Federer’s poor record against Murray, the Swiss will have more than enough competition. Federer fans should not guarantee a title for their man, but they should feel absolutely great about his chances of ending up No. 1.
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The maestro should resurface for the last tournament just to remind everybody who's the boss.
chr18 , 11/22/09 3:33 AM