Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: World Tour Finals wraps up 2009 season

  2009-11-21 07:48:04
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  A long and arduous 2009 ATP season is down to just one week…and eight men. Throughout the grueling year, players were stricken by the cruel fate of injuries and/or by their own shortcomings, but an elite eight—as always—have survived.

   

  While their punishment is more tennis and a shorter offseason (if you can even call it an “offseason”), their reward is in inaugural trip to London for the World Tour Finals.
  Almost every one of the participants has endured some significant bump along the way, but now they all have a chance to conclude the year on the highest of high notes: by becoming World Tour champion…and in the case of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, by finishing No. 1 in the world.

   

  World Tour Finals
  

   

  Where: London, England
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  Defending Champion: Novak Djokovic

  
  Draw Analysis:
  Group A
  Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Juan Martin Del Potro, Fernando Verdasco
  
  Group B
  Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, Robin Soderling

   

  What a difference a few months make. If you had offered Nadal this draw in the spring, he would have taken it in a heartbeat. Djokovic was slumping and being surpassed—rapidly—by Murray, Davydenko was not even playing (hurt until April), and Soderling was nothing more than a World Tour Finals afterthought.
  
  At the same time, if you had proposed this draw to Federer in the summer, he would have scoffed at it. Murray, briefly assuming the No. 2 spot in the world rankings, reached the semifinals at Wimbledon and won a Masters title in Montreal. An on-fire Del Potro won his first Grand Slam title by upsetting Federer in a five-set U.S. Open final. Verdasco made it to his second career Grand Slam quarterfinal with some stellar play in New York.

   

  Suddenly, everything has changed. It is Nadal’s group—not Federer’s—that is absolutely loaded. Djokovic is the hottest player on tour right now and has to be considered the pre-tournament favorite in London, Davydenko has been in outstanding form ever since returning for the clay-court swing, and Soderling—starting at the French Open, where he stunned Nadal—came out of almost nowhere to seize a WTF spot.

  
  Federer’s competition, although still imposing, is not what it could have been. Murray has been dealing with a wrist problem and is not quite as on fire as he was earlier in 2009, Del Potro is struggling mightily with an abdominal strain, and Verdasco has underwhelmed throughout the post-U.S. Open season.

   

  With Del Potro injured and Verdasco a longshot, Group A looks relatively clear-cut. Federer and Murray, of course, are heavy favorites to advanc out of round-robin play and reach the semifinals. Group B, on the other hand, should be a free-for-all. All six matches, conceivably, could be absolute thrillers, and other than Djokovic failing to make the semifinals, nothing would come a major surprise.

   

  Upset Alerts: There can’t be too many major upsets in London, since we are talking about the Top 8 (or Top 9 since Andy Roddick is out) players in the world here. Still, there could be more than a few “unexpected” developments in London.

   

  In Group A, Soderling over Nadal is a significant possibility. In fact, it would only be an upset on paper (Soderling is No. 9 in the world and the last “seed” in London, whereas Nadal is No. 2 and the top “seed” in his group). If the 25-year-old Swede can get the best of the Spaniard on clay, what’s to say he cannot topple Nadal on the faster surface of an indoor hard court?

   

  In Group B, Verdasco’s best chance of a round-robin victory will come against a reeling Del Potro. Again, assuming the U.S. Open champion is not 100 percent, that would only be an upset on paper. Del Potro, however, has upset potential of his own. He showed in New York that—when on top of his game—he is one of the most talented players in the world. If his abdominal problem miraculously disappears, DP will have every chance of taking out both Federer and Murray.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Juan Martin Del Potro

   

  Round-robin predictions:

  Group A
  Federer over Verdasco in 2

  Murray over Del Potro in 3
  Federer over Murray in 3

  Verdasco over Del Potro in 3
  Federer over Del Potro in 2

  Murray over Verdasco in 2
  
  Group B
  Nadal over Soderling in 3

  Djokovic over Davydenko in 2
  Djokovic over Nadal in 2

  Davydenko over Soderling in 3
  Davydenko over Nadal in 3

  Djokovic over Soderling in 2
  
  Semifinals: Federer over Davydenko, Djokovic over Murray

   

  Final: Djokovic over Federer

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

Tell a friend »

Comments

Write comment

You have to be logged in to comment. If you do not have an account, click here to register. It only takes a minute and you'll be redirected back to this page.

Username:

Password:

Archive

Unibet Mobile prematch,live betting

Recommend Tennistalk

Follow us

Poll

Articles - Latest commented

• 
  3

  Nadal headlines third-round action on Thursday
  

  rafaisthebest, May 17, 2012 10:25 AM

• 
  1

  Hewitt to gets his Paris chance
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 10:03 AM

• 
  4

  Federer, Ferrero clash in Rome third round
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 9:02 AM

• 
  3

  Federer wins Rome opener over Berlocq
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 8:55 AM

• 
  1

  Murray gets birthday warning swearing in victory
  

  ts38, May 17, 2012 3:15 AM

Blog - Latest commented

• 
  62
  Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
  

  rafaisthebest, May 17, 2012 10:04 AM

• 
  73
  Novak Djokovic takes up skating at the Madrid ice rink
  

  hawkeye, May 17, 2012 12:53 AM

• 
  207
  Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
  

  hrsikesa, May 16, 2012 4:23 PM

Tell a friend

Other tennis links

• www.atptennis.com
• www.tennis.com
• www.tennisnews.com
• www.sonyericssonwtatour.com
• More links...