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2009-11-20 05:56:51
I predicted the 2009 World Tour Finals lineup, in order, at the beginning of the year. Now the regular season is over and the field is set, so it’s time to take a look back....
(Note: bold text is what was previously predicted. Plain text is the new addition).
1. Roger Federer — It was obvious that Federer lost his aura of invincibility in 2008. Whether or not his dominance is completely over, however, is a different story. I'm saying that with Pete Sampras' Grand Slam record within reach, Federer will have extra motivation to propel himself to one more year as the best player in the world.
Federer was not exactly dominant throughout the season, but he did more than enough to regain the No. 1 world ranking and head into London as a near lock to finish 2009 at the top spot. And, of course, he surpassed Sampras in the process.
2. Rafael Nadal — The only question in regards to Nadal's World Tour Finals status is whether or not his body will still be intact at the end of the season. Nonetheless, go ahead and chalk up a fifth straight French Open title for the Spaniard. Nadal, however, might need a breakout performance on hard courts in order to fend off his challengers.
Nadal got his breakout performance on a hard court (Australian Open), but neither his body (knees) nor his mind (parents’ divorce) remained intact. As a result, a fifth straight French Open title was not in the cards. Still, Nadal was good enough—and healthy enough—to finish the regular season at No. 2.
3. Andy Murray — Murray erupted last season, winning back-to-back Masters Series titles and reaching the final of the U.S. Open. He swiftly turned the ATP Tour's "Big 3" into a "Big 4." If the Scot can somehow start working this kind of magic on clay, he has a chance to finish the year ranked No. 1.
During the first half of the season, it looked like Murray would—in fact—finish in the No. 3 spot if not even No. 2 or No. 1. However, he failed to maintain his form on clay and was never the same thereafter, in part due to a wrist injury. Had it not been for an incredible hot streak by Novak Djokovic, however, Murray could have been No. 3 right now.
4. Novak Djokovic — Barring serious injury, four World Tour Finals spots are already all but guaranteed: one for Federer, one for Nadal, one for Murray, and one for Djokovic. If Djokovic wants to finish 2009 as the No. 1 player in the world, however, he needs to find more consistency.
The top four did, of course, turn out to be locks. However, it was not inconsistency that plagued Djokovic. Quite the contrary. Djokovic was the most consistent player on tour in 2009, he simply came up short at the Grand Slams (no titles, no finals).
5. Andy Roddick — There's the top four, and then there's everyone else. If Roddick can stay healthy under new coach Larry Stefanki, a resurgent year is not out of the question.
For the first eight months of the season, that is exactly what happened. Roddick stayed healthy and played some of the best tennis of his career. When a knee injury set in at the beginning of the Asian swing, however, Roddick was all but finished. He qualified for the World Tour Finals at No. 6 but was replaced by Robin Soderling.
6. Nikolay Davydenko — Once the clear-cut No. 3 player in the world, Davydenko is starting to be surpassed by a younger crop of stars. Even so, Davydenko should be able to produce at least one more rock-solid year on tour.
Davydenko was surpassed by another younger star (Juan Martin Del Potro), so the veteran Russian qualified in the seventh spot rather than sixth. A stellar 2009 would have been even better for Daydenko, but he missed almost the entire first three months of the season. It’s clear that he has not one, but several more good years left.
7. Juan Martin Del Potro — Del Potro won't be able to sneak up on anyone this time around. He doesn't yet have the all-court game to challenge the Big 4, but he has the talent to keep his spot in the top eight. Finishing 2009 as high as No. 5 in the world would not come as a huge surprise.
Del Potro did just that: finished the regular season at No. 5. While that was hardly a surprise, his U.S. Open triumph over Federer was a major shock. If he stays healthy throughout next season, he can challenge what was once a “Big 4.”
8. Gael Monfils — This, obviously, is my sleeper pick. Armed with a rare clean bill of health and a new coach in Roger Rasheed, the Frenchman should finally live up to his massive hype in 2009.
A sleeper did, in fact, fill this No. 8 spot; it just wasn’t Monfils. Instead, it was Fernando Verdasco. Still, by finishing runner-up in Paris, Monfils was not too far off and he should have another decent shot at qualifying for London in 2010.
Outside looking in:
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga — It's easy to see that Tsonga will be in the 2009 World Tour Finals if he stays healthy throughout the season. The chances of that happening, however, are slim.
As predicted, Tsonga just barely missed out on a WTF spot. He finished the regular season at No. 10 and is the first alternate now that Soderling is in the main draw. Tsonga did, however, stay surprisingly healthy (albeit not 100 percent) throughout the year.
Gilles Simon — Clearly a player on the rise, there's no reason to think Simon won't contend for the season-ending event yet again. The Frenchman, however, needs to add some offensive weapons to his arsenal and come up big at a Grand Slam.
Simon’s already-stellar backhand got better and better, and he came up relatively big at a Grand Slam (Australian Open quarterfinals). Had he not been plagued by a knee injury over the last six months of the season, Simon could have come even closer to WTF qualification.
Robin Söderling — There just aren't enough indoor tournaments for Söderling to get over the hump in Masters Cup qualifying. He doesn't have the mental game to do it, either.
Soderling was on the outside looking in when the regular season ended, but he is in now that Roddick has withdrawn. The Swede, however, became a force on all surfaces, not just indoor hard courts, and he showed plenty of mental toughness in scoring the upset of the year over Nadal at the French Open.
Longshots:
Marin Cilic — Probably one year away. Cilic has the power game (especially with his serve and backhand) to make a run at the Top 10, but it won't happen until he improves his forehand and movement.
One year away was right. If his forehand improves, Cilic should be in the 2010 World Tour Finals.
Ernests Gulbis — Probably two years away. At 20, Gulbis already has Top 10 talent. In terms of consistency and mental capacity, however, the Latvian looks like a player who belongs well outside of the Top 100.
Two years away? More like two light years away.
Dropping out of World Tour Finals discussion:
David Ferrer — His lack of offense will probably prevent him from ever hooking back up with the game's elite.
Ferrer did not quite drop completely off the ATP map (he is still No. 18 in the world), but for the 2007 Masters Cup runner-up, his days as a serious contender are long over.
David Nalbandian — Flashes of brilliance interspersed with prolonged slumps is not the recipe to qualify for the World Tour Finals.
Neither is missing almost the entire season with a hip injury.
James Blake — Blake somehow managed to finish 10th in the world in 2008 despite an extremely quiet season. The American has already risen from the dead (almost literally) once in his career, but at his age (29), the chances of a similar resurrection are miniscule.
Once No. 4 in the world, Blake is now the No. 4 American.
Fernando Gonzalez — The departure of coach Larry Stefanki won't help matters. Neither will the Chilean's age (28).
Gonzalez, as expected, did not qualify for London, but he certainly did not drop out of the discussion. In fact, he was one of the last players eliminated in the last week of the regular season. Now 29, Gonzo still looks to be going strong.
Richard Gasquet — Is it time to give up on Gasquet? Despite his talent, the Frenchman is nowhere near consistent enough to contend for a London spot.
Now that he also has plenty of off-the-court issues to deal with, it’s looking like Gasquet will never live up to the hype.
Tomas Berdych — It’s never a good sign when you're going in the wrong direction in the rankings at such a young age (23). Unless his mental game underwent a sudden metamorphosis this off-season, the Czech will not be a factor in the 2009 World Tour Finals discussion.
He wasn’t. And he almost certainly never will be.
Not mentioned: Fernando Verdasco
While Verdasco had never been anywhere close to finishing a year near the game’s elite, his breakout 2009 campaign did not exactly come out of nowhere. Verdasco clinched Spain’s 2008 Davis Cup title with an emotional five-set win over Jose Acasuso and he followed that up with a month of intense training in Las Vegas. While my World Tour Finals predictions were (ADMIT IT, READERS!) impressive, I should have seen this one coming.
Tell a friend »
Straight to the top-of the-class impressive.
ed251137 , 11/20/09 2:04 PM
Colleen - ask and you shall receive:
Nadal: http://www.tennistalk.com/en/blog/Ricky_Dimon/20091120/World_Tour_Fina ls_profile:_No._2_Rafael_Nadal
RickyDimon , 11/20/09 4:58 PM
Ricky,
You say, "Del Potro doesn't yet have the all-court game to challenge the Big 4."
He has done more than challenging the Big 4. Beating Nadal 3 times in a row and humiliating Federer at the world's biggest stage, and winning US Open by beating Nadal and Federer back to back in 2 days.
Has anyone else done this? Will anyone else be able to do this in 2010? I doubt it.
Then, you say, "Finishing 2009 as high as No. 5 in the world would not come as a huge surprise."
This is a hasty understatement. The year is not over yet, and he still has a shot at No. 4.
Then you say, "If he stays healthy throughout next season, he can challenge what was once a ?Big 4.?
Let me tell you this, if he stays healthy, he will become No. 1 or 2 by the end of 2010. Safin agrees with me on this.
MurrayFan , 11/20/09 6:38 PM
Ricky, I just noticed and read this particular blog and I give you full props. *pushes palms up* If there were rankings for predictions, you'd be right up there.
Also, I appreciated all of your humor and brutal honesty throughout the blog. My favorite being your jab at Gulbis. XD That kid is so frustrating! After he played that five-setter against Roddick at the US Open in 2008, I thought he'd at least -
......Never mind.
Seeing Gael Monfils' name up there bugs me. I just wish I could grab that guy and shake him silly...er...straight. I just feel that he is such an underachiever. I hope he matures and gets serious before it's too late. How much longer can one stay a "potential"? I think his finals match vs Djokovic in Paree will hopefully be a wake up call for him. Midway through that match I could just sense that he wanted to win that final..BADLY. Usually he clowns around and isn't focused, etc. But this time he seemed to set his mind and heart on winning. The thing is, so did Djokovic. The biggest difference though is that Djokovic made up his mind that he wanted to win at the beginning of 2009, not in the middle of the actual final.
Jo Willy is someone else I feel is an underachiever. What's with the french?!
Gasquet is an underdog that I have a soft spot for. I hope he finds a way to get back on track.
David Nalbandian, I can't wait for his return in 2010!
MiniArbre , 12/3/09 3:11 AM
Mini - thanks for the comment
fyi Gulbis only took Roddick to 4 sets, not 5
RickyDimon , 12/3/09 7:28 AM
Very impressive, Ricky!
Even more so if you remember that in the last months of 2008 many people were saying that 2009 would be an exciting year in tennis and more difficult to predict what with all the players moving into the top 6 or so positions.
Isn't 2010 shaping up to be even more difficult to predict?
chlorostoma , 12/3/09 2:21 PM
Mini: 'What's with the french?' you ask. Presumably you are referring to the fact that in spite of 12 (11 since Santoro retired) players in the top 100 this is not reflected in the number of titles they have won between them?
I would ask, how come GB (which has the same size population as France) has 1 lone player* in the top 100 and the US (population 5 times that of France and GB and 7 times that of Spain) does not have a far greater number of players ranked above 100?
* though that 1 player holds an impressive 14 titles!
ed251137 , 12/3/09 5:55 PM
RickyDimon, 4 sets it was, put me down as informed.
It was such an entertaining match. In a way, I felt like Roddick was playing himself. Not only is there something similar about their personalities (Gulbis has a confidence and cockiness about him - whether it's justified or not is something that doesn't concern him. He also has this blasé attitude. His serve is one of my favorites in the game if for nothing else but the way he non-nonchalantly tosses the tennis ball up in the air before he serves.) Plus, that particular match between them just happened to fall on the eve of both of their birthdays. That made it all the more enjoyable for some strange reason. :)
I was thinking about Cilic. He was always a player I rooted for to do well. I think he's coming along nicely and is moving in the right direction. The thing is, we hardly ever hear anything about him. But he strikes me as a player who quietly goes about his business and works very hard. One of the most enjoyable matches for me this year was watching him play that five setter vs Tommy Haas at Wimbledon. Haas's girlfriend/wife is scary. :D
Chlorostoma, 2010 is going to be insane!
Ed251137, that's exactly what I'm referring to. When you look at the French players, you see individuals who have a lot of talent. That's when you realize that it takes more than just talent to be successful (of course I'm speaking about titles and not rankings in this instance.) While 5 career titles (for Jo Willy) isn't bad for someone who's been on tour for six years, especially when you consider that they are playing in the era of two of the most greedy competitors ever, I can't help but feel that an individual with his kind of talent should do a bit more. Monfils annoys me to death because I just feel that he just isn't professional enough. And that maybe his style. Not everyone wants to win a whole bunch of titles and set/break records and such. He strikes me as the type of player who enjoys performing more than competing. With just 2 titles to his name, if he plans on making a significant breakthrough, he better get serious. He's surrounded by a large group of extremely hungry competitors who are dead serious. I'm interested to see if his match vs Djokovic in Paree has opened his eyes. Maybe 2010 will bring a more mature and focused Monfils. Speaking of hungry, Gilles Simon (another one of my favs) is so tiny! I wish I could invite him home one day and just stuff him with food! During his match vs Ljubi at the Paris Open (you know, the one with the bizaare ending?) Gilles looked like the walking dead. His slightness (which is how he has always been) was emphasized by the fact that he injured himself badly and so had a strained expression on his face and was as pale and white as chalk.
I think that the French are definitely doing something right with regards to producing top players. But the common denominator, I think, when it comes to all of their weaknesses, is their mindset.
*exhales deeply* You bring up a good point. I think the epidemic that GB and the US (and I think we should also include Australia) are suffering from is slightly lightened by the fact that a recent survey showed that over 30 million Americans are now participating in tennis (it's the highest it's been in over 2 decades). So hopefully, that enthusiasm will spill over and translate into the pro tour. Also, since the heavy majority of those new participants are young, the word will get around and they'll inspire the youth in GB and Australia.
Of course there are many reasons as to why their are a lack of champions coming from the aforementioned countries (lack of proper venues, training methods, dedication and time, to name a few. Plus it's a sport that competes with the other more "glamorous" sports like soccer, basketball and football. Then, of course, is the age old problem of tennis being an expensive sport to pick up. Like it or not it is still an "elitist" sport.)
There's a ways to go before tennis becomes grass roots and more accessible. I think that a lot of the management is nothing but troublesome,incompetent and downright useless. Facilitation, not complication, is the key.
Oh, a quick shout out to the lone player from GB with the 14 titles. Being the only current successful player in a country that is hungry for a champion is a whole lotta pressure. So kudos to him for doing as well as he has so far. WOOT!
MiniArbre , 12/3/09 10:07 PM
MiniArbre: gr8 post as per usual. I love Simon too, he has the most beautiful smile in tennis! Yes, the French are so talented aren't they? Heard it discussed somwhere, apparently, in France, individual talent is nurtured and supported so they don't just turn out automatons who play the same way. Collectively, they support each other too, which brings me to por Andy! So much talent, too much? So much pressure and so prone to injury. I view 2010 with a certain amount of trepidation...
deuce , 12/4/09 1:34 PM
deuce,
I felt the need to post some words of encouragement for you and Murray in 2010. I think some of the pressure will be off this year for Andy. Last year the expectations were insanely high. Now that he has lost the #3 ranking to Djoko, maybe he can relax a little and just get back to playing some brilliant tennis. He gets to start the new year on his favorite surface and that's a good thing. After his fourth round loss in the US Open, he has nowhere to go but up. I don't see him coming in as the tournament favorite, as he was last year. There will be a lot of competition, what with Delpo being a contender, Djoko finding his game again, Fed always a threat here and Rafa being the defending champion.
Take heart and look forward to a great grand slam tournament to start off the new year!
Nativenewyorker , 12/4/09 10:51 PM
12/4/09 1:34 PM: Spot on deuce. France does throw a lot of money and support at their talent. I live in what is essentially a fishing town which is also home to the the regional tennis HQ for Normandy. Every day I see kids as young as 5 and 6 having top notch coaching for which they pay peanuts and the older ones (7 or 8+) competing regularly in junior tournaments. This explains why 20 Frenchmen feature in the top 200 and is in painful contrast to the dearth of GB players. So much is talked about nurturing British talent but this is not translated into financial support.
MiniArbre, 12/3/09 10:07 PM: It does seem the fault lies in bad management rather than lack of funds.
ed251137 , 12/5/09 9:05 AM
france has a very good program for spotting and honing young talents. it's not just the money they pump into it but the structure in place. spain isn't bad either. some countries could definitely learn a thing or two from the french approach. oz being one of them! poor hewitt is just as lonely as muzz.
homos , 12/5/09 12:18 PM
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Ricky,
I'm totally impressed! :)
Your predictions were close to perfect.
Look forward to your preview of two last (top) qualifiers!
Colleen , 11/20/09 9:08 AM