Ricky Dimon

  • Approach Shots: 2009 regular season ends with Paris Masters

    2009-11-08 21:10:30

    “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

     

    At long last, the 2009 ATP season is coming to an end. To the chagrin of more than a few players, however, it’s not over yet! The regular-season action wraps up this week in Paris with the BNP Paribas Masters. Despite the carnage of a long and grueling 10 and a half months, most of the top players have survived the carnage and will take part in the final Masters Series event of the year. Of course, some (Andy Roddick, Sam Querrey, David Ferrer, to name just a few) are on the sidelines nursing injuries and others (Robin Soderling, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Juan Martin Del Potro, among many others) are limping their way into Paris.

    As usual, a title is not the only thing at stake in Paris. While spots in the year-end World Tour Final are usually still more up for grabs than they are this season, the picture has not entirely crystallized. The eighth and final place is still available, and any number of contenders could seize it with a Paris triumph, just as Tsonga did in 2008. Tsonga needs to go back-to-back in order to make a return trip to the prestigious year-end event, while Soderling and Fernando Gonzalez will be looking to match Tsonga’s feat from a year ago. Those who have already clinched—including Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray—will simply be looking to storm into London on a wave of momentum. 1000 ranking points would not hurt, either!

     

    Paris Masters

     

    Where: Paris, France
    Surface: Indoor Hard

    Points: 1000

    Top Seed:
    Roger Federer
    Defending Champion:
    Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

     

    Draw Analysis: After what did—or more like didn’t—take place at the Shanghai Masters, it’s almost pointless to analyze the draw before the tournament begins. At this stage of the season, there are too many retirements and too few sure things. The Shanghai draw opened up early and often to give all kinds of players an opportunity to do serious and surprising damage at a Masters Series event. Will the same thing happen in Paris? Maybe it will, but hopefully not at the expense of retirements.

    For now, at least, let’s take a look at the draw as if everyone entered is 100 percent—or close to 100 percent. It looks well-balanced from top to bottom, although the top half of the bracket is slightly stronger. Federer could meet Gael Monfils in the third round and either Marin Cilic or Fernando Verdasco in the quarters.

    In the second quarter of the draw, the seeded players are Murray, Del Potro, Gonzalez, and Radek Stepanek. All eight of the seeds in the top half have recently been—or still are—in outstanding form. If Del Potro is fully recovered from a wrist injury that has rendered him useless ever since winning the U.S. Open, a scorching quarterfinal clash between him and Murray is in the cards.

    On the other side, Nadal and Djokovic should have an easier time of things earlier in the week. Djokovic’s nearest seed is swine flu-stricken Tommy Haas, while Nadal is slated to meet fellow Spaniard Tommy Robredo in round three. The third-ranked Serb could go up against an in-form Nikolay Davydenko in the quarterfinals, but Davydenko could have a tough time making it that far if Soderling is healthy.

    Danger lurks throughout Nadal’s fourth and final quarter of the draw, but that danger also comes with a ton of question marks. The world No. 2 could open against Marco Chiudinelli, who is on fire right now but has to be tired having played so much tennis this fall. The case is similar for Ivan Ljubicic, who retired against Nadal in the Shanghai quarters and could get a rematch at the same point in Paris. The last quarterfinal will be Nadal vs. Tsonga if the seeds hold to form, but the ninth-ranked French retired last week in Valencia.

     

    First-round matches to watch (and you can probably add to this list when qualifiers get placed in the draw) include Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. Viktor Troicki, Jeremy Chardy vs. Juan Monaco, and Ljubicic vs. Sebastien Grosjean. James Blake already navigate his way through a tough opponent, dismissing Fabrice Santoro on Sunday.

    Among the potential second-round matchups are Monfils vs. Stanislas Wawrinka, Murray vs. Blake (already assured), Gonzalez vs. John Isner, and Del Potro vs. Safin.

     

    First-Round Upset Alert: There won’t be any real upsets in the first round because all 16 seed players have byes. Nonetheless, count on Chiudinelli (ranked 73rd as of Saturday, but climbing) taking out world No. 27 Nicolas Almagro. The veteran Swiss is sky high right now and he is far better hard-court player than the Spaniard.

    Second-Round Upset Alerts: Possibilities include:

    Wawrinka over (15) Monfils – Monfils has failed to produce any notable results of late and Wawrinka played well in Basel, reaching the quarters before leading Djokovic by a set and a break.


    Isner over (10) Gonzalez – Isner just beat Gonzalez in Basel and he has been in impressive form ever since returning from mono at the beginning of the summer.


    Safin over (5) Del Potro – Del Potro has been injured and the crowd be firmly behind Safin as the mercurial Russian plays his final tournament.

     

    Feliciano Lopez over (16) Haas – Haas has been sideline with swine flu and he will have to be 100 percent to stay on an indoor hard court with Lopez, who made it to the Shanghai semifinals.

     

    Ljubicic over (11) Simon – Ljubicic has had Simon’s number recently and he will have a significant edge on an indoor hard court as long as he serves well against the counter-puncher.

     

    Tomas Berdych over (14) Robredo – Berdych should always be considered the favorite against Robredo on any kind of hard court.

     

    Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Verdasco, Marin Cilic, Radek Stepanek, Michael Llodra, Ivan Ljubicic, Marco Chiudinelli

     

    Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tommy Haas, Philipp Petzschner, Fabrice Santoro, Paul-Henri Mathieu, James Blake, Ivo Karlovic, Victor Hanescu, Benjamin Becker, Ivo Karlovic, Jeremy Chardy, Sebastien Grosjean, Marat Safin

     

    Quarterfinal predictions: Federer over Cilic, Murray over Safin, Davydenko over Djokovic, Nadal over Simon

    Semifinals: Murray over Federer, Nadal over Davydenko

     

    Final: Murray over Nadal

     

    Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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Comments

really, too many injury unkowns on many players this time of the season. who really wants this trophy and is healthy enough?

murray and nole come to mind. only, i say nole gets the best of murray this time.

qtrfinal: federer over verdasco, murray over isner, nole over davy, nadal over ljubicic

semi: murray over federer, nole over nadal

final: nole over murray

zoey234 , 11/9/09 2:52 AM


ugh, Murray, Ricky? with so many players in the field, come on!

i think the Fed will take this. maybe Rafa. love your prediction zoey, with Nole beating Rafa and Muzza back to back, but unfortunately I think he'll be exhausted. Nole over Davy, but maybe a well-rested Rafa over Nole...Roger over Muzza fo sho (and Muzz only makes it that far coz he has a good draw - again!)

Roger and Rafa in the final, and I can't say who will win till I watch Rafa play!

stu , 11/9/09 6:54 AM


have a little more faith in your fave, stu :-)

he showed lots of patience and mental strength in basel. now if he can back it up with his best tennis against nadal and murray? why not? sure, his serve was not right yet, but neither was nadal's or murray's.

zoey234 , 11/9/09 8:30 AM


We may see the top four guys reaching the semis in the last Masters 1000 in 2009. I think that will be nice, to end the regular season with the top four guys battling it out for the last Masters shield. I hope for a Nadal/Murray final, they haven't met in a final since IW, and i hope for a Nadal win, so that Nadal will equal Fed with 16 Masters shields. I think Djoko will be tired after playing in so many tournaments and after coming through a tough tournament and final in Basel. I also wants to see whether Murray can overcome Fed yet again, esp after Murray is back from injury.

luckystar , 11/9/09 10:43 AM


was not giving simon enough credit- he should prevail against ljub in paris. but tsonga and simon have not been in the form they were while on the asian swing. and i hops one of them makes it to the qtrfinal, whichever one is up for playing nadal, lol...what an easy draw rafa has! (conspiracy?)

zoey234 , 11/9/09 3:14 PM


one more post before going to work. hehehe, poor soderling: his first match returning from injury is against dr.ivo...that's gotta hurt! some obvious draw riggin' there.

zoey234 , 11/9/09 3:29 PM


Ricky: just love your pick! Am here in UK not daring to breathe! Have to say though, Andy was in fine form on Sunday, especially coming off long time out with injury.

deuce , 11/9/09 3:45 PM


hi deuce. why aren't you breathing? breathe easy cos andy kicked arse in valencia! i watched his matches. have to say though, i was not impressed with verdasco's efforts and andy's other opponents had no chance in the first place, kinda like rochus and seppi were against fed.

that's the reason i am picking nole. he's young, yes he tweaked himself during his win but he's looking if nothing else extremely physically fit! as i said, his serving and andy's was not impressive, but considering the possible condition mental, motivational, and physical, let's say, of the others in this draw. i'm going with nole and andy. nole has matured and looks to be poised to make a move in the ranks. this will be another true test for him, if he meets rafa and andy.

and the reason i'm online- was curious to know if isner got through his match....it not over! i thought he'd come through. he's like having another dr. ivo in the draw, only worse, cos he has a bit more skills. well, can't stick around to see who wins. later....cheers!

go big john, don't make me a fool for picking you!

zoey234 , 11/9/09 7:38 PM


You're no fool zoey.
I would like to see a Rafa/Blandy final ... we'll have to wait and see how Delpo doing and whether or not Rafa's up for these fast courts.

smr , 11/9/09 8:09 PM


Rafa can play well on fast indoor hard courts if he is fully fit and his game is back to his pre-injury level. Didn't he reached the final of Rotterdam this year, and Rotterdam is also a fast indoor hard court? Also, Rafa had reached the final at the Paris Masters in 2007 and lost to Nalby. Though he did not win on both occasions, don't forget on both occasions, Rafa was not at tip top conditions too - 2007 he was back from knee tendonitis, and 2009 Rotterdam he was physically drained after the AO. I hope he has enough match play after the Asian swing and that his confidence is back, esp with uncle Toni by his side now.

Nole and Davy may have fatigue problem after playing in so many tournaments recently; Fed may or may not be ready for Paris, his form in the Basel final was disappointing. Even though Murray won in Valencia, he had to struggle through his earlier matches, its because Youzhny was clueless how to play Murray that's why Murray won rather easily. Had Murray played a player like Nole for eg, I dont think he would have it easy.

Other players like Delpo, Tsonga, Soderling, hard to predict how they'll fare as they are out injuried earlier on. I think its difficult to predict the winner of this tournament, too many known and unknown factors involved. For me I hope for a Rafa win as among the top 5, he is the only one that has not won a tournament since May, poor guy!

luckystar , 11/9/09 8:40 PM


stu: on other thread, samdaman, not ME, says Andy' s got a tough draw. As he's got Delpot on his side, "easy" is not a word I'd use.

deuce , 11/9/09 10:07 PM


thanks, smr. i do like predicting. it's challenging to put aside what i wish for and pick objectively. still, there are many unkown variables; i am learning.

was looking at the match-ups after today's results. couldn't believe poor gonzo's luck having to play isner again right outta the gate. his chances to qualify for YEC were all but ruined last week losing to isner in basel. maybe he'll come out and win this time.

typically this is not the best time of year for rafa and if he is well, maybe he'll hold something in reserve for YEC, a trophy he is yet to win too. i dunno. and roger? as much as i long for a win, how does he stay motivated? he looked grumpy, i thought, during the match with nole and talk about unfocused or something. maybe he wants to stay home with his twins and wife.

anyways, that's why i am not picking roger or rafa. but smr, fully aware either can surprise us! we shall see.

zoey234 , 11/10/09 3:32 AM


This whole tournament seems a bit murky in terms of who might be ready to take the championship.
zoey ... shame about Gonzo I thought he had a good chance at making the finals until Isnor bounced that ball between his excessively long legs and bumped him out of Basel. Perhaps he'll find a way through this time.

smr , 11/10/09 4:08 AM


One thing I've been trying to find but haven't been able to in all of the stories of finals scenarios is where we are relative to the race for Year-end No. 1.

If I understand the points system correctly, if Federer finishes better than Nadal at Paris--regardless of where either finishes overall--Federer clinches the top spot. If they finish the same or Nadal finishes better, then it goes to London.

Is that correct, Ricky?

SenorPlaid , 11/10/09 8:07 PM


deuce, don't worry. your guy has delPo's number.

(if you ignore that tournament in NY..what was it called again?)

stu , 11/10/09 10:36 PM


Oh yes, stu, you mean that tournament in the Summer when Andy whopped Delpot. Thanx 4 reminding me....

deuce , 11/11/09 7:49 PM


And my question is moot thanks to Fed's no-show today against Benneteau: It'll be decided in London.

SenorPlaid , 11/11/09 11:21 PM


SP: i woulda answered you, if i had a clue. was waiting to hear the answer.

doesn't matter now.

zoey234 , 11/12/09 12:46 AM


zoey and SP I'm pretty sure Fed has an awfully good chance of remaining at # 1 for the year. Rafa would have to win everything ... and judging by today's efforts ...

ps I like drew lilley too.

smr , 11/12/09 2:06 AM


he cracks me up smr...all his nicknames for the players. very amusing blogger. also like listening to his 'daily-round-ups' ....i can speak some german and a very little spanish but he does all the accents to perfection by my standards. i marvel at europeans who can do that.

i won't meltdown if roger loses his #1. was hoping he could surpass sampras record but roger has enough records as it is. yeah, maybe it was just the rust with rafa today. i didn't see the match. apparently it the serve was still a problem. but with rafa, his mental focus is second to none! not like nole and fed who can go 'walkabout' or murray who sometimes naps for a set. with rafa getting a break point or match point is harder than taking the binky from a baby or a bone from a dog. he hangs on and doesn't give it up!

i was impressed with delpo staying in that match with the crowd behind marat. sort of thought marat would win. delpo's wrist must be good and soderling's elbow.

i'm staying with my pick tho. i think with fed out, or like when rafa went out early last roland garos, it gives the others not in the top 5 more incentive. will be fun to watch, smr.....or in my case, watch the livescore. no espn360 coverage this week. whaaaaaaaa....

zoey234 , 11/12/09 3:31 AM


zoey234, 11/12/09 3:31 AM
http://watchlivetennis.org/live/today.php
Have you tried this site. Dont know where you are but it works for me in France and I know it works from Australia. There is a small annual fee (I paid 10 euros) but the quality is usually pretty good - better than ChannelSurfing. And if you open up a new 2nd window, and select another match you can even watch two at once!

ed251137 , 11/12/09 5:30 PM


Looks like Nadal and Nole are the only ones left alive to keep up with your prediction, Ricky.
I think it's going to go like this: Semis: Delpo d Cilic, Rafa d Nole.
Finals: Rafa d Delpo.

grafight , 11/12/09 10:57 PM


sorry deuce, i didnt wish for SUCH a bad showing. just wanted Nole to do one better!

stu , 11/13/09 1:32 AM


Novak/delPo final anybody?!

stu , 11/13/09 4:34 PM


Guess ths cud be repeat of IW when Rafa stuggled thru the initial half b4 clinching the tourney

vmk1 , 11/13/09 5:50 PM


hey ty ed. i tried the link but my old macbook and me are technically challenged. i may have to bribe, beg, help myself to my friend's pc during the YEC. we're in the usa here- rocky mountains....freezing cold, burrrrrrrr
so, rafa is back to form. hm, didn't expect it so soon. well, that changes things. but, my pick is djokovic. he leads rafa in hard court wins...but i hear the courts are slower than basel. my pick could be going down in flames. go nole!
a question, a duh one, anyone: so, if JMDP and roddick still can't play, that means soderling and tsonga are alternates, right?

zoey234 , 11/14/09 1:48 AM


novak/monfils final, looks like it. boy, didnt expect that, did we?

mriiidula , 11/14/09 5:14 PM


is it true that roddick won't be able to play london and will be replaced with soderling?

posmatrac , 11/16/09 2:48 AM


no official word, but yes, all signs point to Roddick being out of London. Soderling will be in.

RickyDimon , 11/16/09 4:25 AM


zoey234 , 11/14/09 1:48 AM
As a MacBook user I can sympathise. Are you still using Internet Explorer? If so this could be the problem. AppleMac have abandoned IE. LiveView works best with Safari. But if your system is pre OS X 10.4 you probably will not be able to download new software. Nothing for it girl - you need the new sexy MacBook.

ed251137 , 11/16/09 5:11 AM


dammit i was looking forward to a Roddick - Nole match.

stu , 11/16/09 5:15 AM



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