Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: 250-pointers take center stage one last time in 2009

  2009-10-26 05:25:19
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  Perhaps it once seemed that this tennis season would never end, but there are—in fact—just seven tournaments left on the 2009 schedule. Three of them take place this week, and they are the final 250-point events of the year. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, headlining the Lyon field along with fellow Frenchman Gilles Simon, is the only Top 10 player in action. In St. Petersburg, top-seeded Mikhail Youzhny looks for back-to-back titles in Russia, having prevailed last week in Moscow. At Vienna’s Bank Austria Tennis Trophy, rising stars Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils lead the way.

   

  Grand Prix de Tennis de Lyon

  Where: Lyon, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  Defending Champion: Robin Soderling (not playing)

  
  Draw Analysis: The French fans in Lyon won’t be complaining that there are two—and only two—clear favorites for the title. That’s because both of them are Frenchmen: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon. Of the two, Tsonga is obviously the more likely to win it all in Lyon and become the fifth Frenchman to win the title in this decade.

   

  Not only is Tsonga in better form than anyone else in the field, he also has an extremely favorable draw as the No. 1 seed. His nearest seeded opponent is a slumping Benjamin Becker, and only Ivan Ljubicic appears to be any kind of threat in the entire top half of the tournament.

  
  Simon will find the going more difficult in the bottom section. The world No. 12 and No. 2 seed is set to open against Simone Bolelli, and his road to the final could also involve countrymen Julien Benneteau and Paul-Henri Mathieu.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Fabrice Santoro over (8) Albert Montanes. Santoro should actually be favored in this matchup even though he is not according to seed. In addition to having the unbridled support of the crowd, the 35-year-old Frenchman will also enjoy a huge advantage against Montanes on indoor hard courts. The Spaniard does by far his best work on clay, and Santoro should give him absolute fits on any kind of faster surface.

  
  Another Frenchman, Josselin Ouanna, also has a decent chance of scoring a first-round surprise. Like Montanes, fourth-seeded Juan Monaco is most dangerous on the slow stuff, but he is completely out of his element indoors. If Ouanna serves well, his power game could get the best of the Argentine.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Ivan Ljubicic, Olivier Rochus, Simon Greul

  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Paul-Henri Mathieu, Benjamin Becker, Albert Montanes, Nicolas Kiefer, Sebastien Grosjean, Fabrice Santoro, Michael Llodra, Simone Bolelli
  
  Semifinal predictions: Tsonga over Ljubicic and Simon over Ouanna

  
  Final: Tsonga over Simon

   

  Bank Austria Tennis Trophy

  Where: Vienna, Austria
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Marin Cilic
  Defending Champion: Philipp Petzschner

   

  Draw Analysis: Of the three 250-point events this week, Vienna boasts the deepest field from top to bottom. Marin Cilic—tipped as a soon-to-be Top 10 player and potential future No. 1—and Gael Monfils are the only real stars, but the draw is marked by well-known players left and right.
  
  Also looking to contend at the Bank Austria Tennis Trophy are Radek Stepanek, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez, Jurgen Melzer, John Isner, Janko Tipsarevic, and defending champion Philipp Petzschner. Stepanek had the misfortune of being stuck in the same half of the bracket as Monfils, but both of them have a long way to go before a potential semifinal meeting. Monfils opens with Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and could face either Isner or Petzschner in the quarters, while Stepanek could go up against Melzer in the last eight.
  
  Cilic appears to have a slightly easier path in the top half of the draw. The 6’6’’ Croat should cruise into the quarterfinals, at which point he could see Lopez, who recently made it to the Shanghai semis but has been dealing with an ankle injury. Kohlschreiber and Nicolas Almagro are potential semifinal opponents for Cilic, but they generally prefer slower surfaces.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Janko Tipsarevic over (8) John Isner. Tipsarevic will actually be ranked higher than Isner when this match is played thanks to Tipsarevic’s performance in Moscow, but Isner is seeded eighth, nonetheless, with the Serb left unseeded. Isner was in unprecedented form throughout the U.S. Open Series, but he has endured more difficulty across the pond. Tipsarevic, meanwhile, is playing arguably the best tennis of his career right now. If he has some time to recover after finishing runner-up in Moscow, he should win this one.
  
  Looking at the draw, it’s hard to predict any other seeded players going down in the opening round, but keep an eye on Lukasz Kubot vs. (2) Stepanek, Garcia-Lopez vs. (3) Monfils, and Marco Chiudinelli vs. (7) Melzer.

  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils, Feliciano Lopez, Daniel Koellerer, Janko Tipsarevic, Marco Chiudinelli

  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Jan Hernych, Steve Darcis, Stefan Koubek, Frederico Gil
  
  Semifinals: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Marin Cilic and Gael Monfils over Radek Stepanek

  Final: Monfils over Kohlschreiber

   

  St. Petersburg Open

  Where: St. Petersburg
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Mikhail Youzhny
  Defending Champion: Andy Murray (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: After a long but triumphant week in Moscow, Youzhny will be right back at it again in Russia (this time moving over to St. Petersburg). Seeded first this week, a tired Youzhny should at least be able to get through his first few matches against relatively unimposing competition (Andrey Golubev followed by either Denis Istomin or Rainer Schuettler).

   

  In a top half of the draw that is much more difficult than the bottom, Youzhny could run into trouble starting in the quarterfinals. A likely opponent is the winner of a first-round blockbuster between Marat Safin and Richard Gasquet. In the second quarter of the field, seeds Viktor Troicki and Evgeny Korolev are both in fine form and would pose a threat to anyone in the semis.

   

  The bottom section, meanwhile, is completely wide open. Victor Hanescu is the highest seed there but he has been playing abysmal tennis, so Jeremy Chardy is probably the odds-on favorite to reach the final. The fourth-seeded Frenchman, however, could be tested by Robby Ginepri or Ernests Gulbis, among others. Perhaps the stage is even set for another run to be made by Ilya Marchenko or Mikhail Kukushkin, both semifinalists last week in Moscow.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Igor Kunitsyn over (7) Pablo Cuevas. Kunitsyn has been struggling mightily and he has dropped out of the Top 100 now that his points from last year’s Moscow title have come off the board. Still, the Russian has always been at his best in his native land and he will have an advantage on indoor hard courts against Cuevas, who prefers clay. Even though Cuevas is in better form, an upset in Kunitsyn’s favor would not be a huge shock.

   

  Fifth-seeded Igor Andreev is also in search of his game, but he should not have too much trouble against Potito Starace on an indoor hard court. The clay-loving Italian clearly has a chance, but the surface will probably be his undoing.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Mikhail Youzhny, Evgeny Korolev, Mikhail Kukushkin, Ilya Marchenko

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Victor Hanescu, Igor Andreev, Rainer Schuettler, Marat Safin, Richard Gasquet, Potito Starace, Ernests Gulbis, Igor Kunitsyn, Teimuraz Gabashvili

  
  Semifinals: Viktor Troicki over Marat Safin and Jeremy Chardy over Pablo Cuevas

   

  Final: Chardy over Troicki
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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