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2009-10-19 17:28:44
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
Perhaps it is a good thing that most of the world’s best will be taking a break this week—and next—before the big tournaments return to the schedule. After what can only be considered “carnage” at the Masters Series Shanghai, they definitely need an extensive rest. A whopping nine retirements plagued a tournament that had a field of just 56 players.
While the quality won’t be as good this week with two 250-point events, you can bet—thankfully—that there will be nowhere near as many retirements. Robin Soderling headlines the Stockholm Open while Shanghai champion Nikolay Davydenko leads the way in Moscow. Overall, however, this week is an opportunity for lesser-known players.
IF Stockholm Open
Where: Stockholm, Sweden
Surface: Indoor Hard
Points: 250
Top Seed: Robin Soderling
Defending Champion: David Nalbandian (not playing)
Draw Analysis: Soderling is the one guy everyone else wanted to avoid, as the top-seeded Swede is by far the best player in this field. Furthermore, he gets to play this one on indoor hard courts (his best surface) and in front of his own Swedish fans. The world No. 10 also should have plenty left in the tank despite having played a lot of tennis recently, because he was upset on Friday in the Shanghai quarterfinals (as opposed to, say, if he had reached the final).
The Stockholm draw signaled bad news for Andreas Seppi and Benjamin Becker. Seppi could face Soderling in the second round, while Becker is the tournament favorite’s nearest seeded player. Soderling’s first real test should come in the semifinals, where a probable opponent is the winner of a first-round showdown between Juan Carlos Ferrero and Marcos Baghdatis. Ferrero has been in fine form all season and Baghdatis just won a Challenger title on Sunday.
Question marks surround a bottom half of the draw that is completely up for grabs. None of the four seeded players in that section is a sure bet to make any noise in Stockholm. Albert Montanes and Juan Monaco are much better on clay than indoor hards, Tommy Haas retired with a shoulder injury in Shanghai, and Feliciano Lopez had a long week in Shanghai before retiring with both a foot infection and an ankle injury.
Should the seeds falter, watch out for Leonardo Mayer or Swedish wildcard Joachim Johansson making a deep run. In general, though, this is Soderling’s tournament to win or lose.
First-Round Upset Alert: Leonardo Mayer over (7) Albert Montanes. Mayer is from Argentina, so one would think he does by far his best work on clay. Not so. Mayer owns a huge serve and really broke onto the ATP scene this summer during the U.S. Open Series. Montanes, a Spaniard seeded seventh, thrives on clay and clay only. As long as Mayer enjoys event a decent serving day, he should able to produce what would only be an upset on paper.
Mayer-Montanes is far from the only upset opportunity in a first-round that should be expected to see a number of seeds fall. The eighth-seeded Lopez has to be tired and appears to be injured as well; if that’s the case, he could go down to Ernests Gulbis. Becker is slumping and probably will bow out to an in-form Simon Greul, even on a fast indoor hard court. Baghdatis, who appears to finally be in decent form, should have a good chance against Ferrero on this surface.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Robin Soderling, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Feliciano Lopez, Simon Greul
Notable Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Juan Monaco, Benjamin Becker, Peter Luczak, Jan Hernych, Ernests Gulbis, Jarkko Nieminen, Florent Serra
Semifinal predictions: Soderling over Ferrero and Haas over Johansson
Final: Soderling over Haas
Kremlin Cup
Where: Moscow, Russia
Surface: Indoor Hard
Points: 250
Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
Defending Champion: Igor Kunitsyn
Draw Analysis: For the record, I don’t think any draws are rigged. Yes, there have been some draws that are borderline inexplicable, but that’s bound to happen when the ATP season basically runs 52 weeks a year with multiple tournaments almost every week!
But if there was one draw that definitely was not rigged, it was at the Kremlin Cup.
The two most well-recognized players in the entire field have to play each other immediately. That’s right; in a matchup that tournament organizers and fans probably had hoped would be the title match, No. 1 seed Nikolay Davydenko and two-time Grand Slam champion Marat Safin will go head-to-head...in the very first round.
It’s hard to even bother talking about the rest of the bracket, especially since Davydenko-Safin has been made all the more compelling by Davydenko’s title in Shanghai and Safin’s pending retirement at the end of the season. Still, there are other contenders in Moscow.
Third-seeded Mikhail Youzhny has regained some stellar form following a dismal first half of the season and has to be considered the favorite to reach the final out of remarkably weak bottom half of the draw. The No. 3 seed got past Horacio Zeballos in his opener on Monday and has no real danger anywhere near him.
Also hoping to make some noise this week are seeds Victor Hanescu, Igor Andreev, and Fabrice Santoro. First-round matches to watch (in addition to Safin-Davydenko) include Andreev vs. Robby Ginepri, Janko Tipsarevic vs. Daniel Koellerer, and Evgeny Korolev vs. 2008 surprise Moscow champion Igor Kunitsyn.
First-Round Upset Alert: Marat Safin over (1) Nikolay Daydenko. The outcome of this match will be dictated almost entirely by Davydenko. He is far and away the better player of the two right now, but—to put it nicely—his, um, “interest level” in this tournament could be lacking after a triumphant week in Shanghai. Don’t be surprised if the No. 1 seed hands this match to Safin in a gift-wrapped package. And that’s probably the only way Safin can win it, because he has been in atrocious form throughout 2009.
In fact, the only seeded player who is a near-certain first-round winner is Santoro (facing unheralded Russian wildcard Andrey Kuznetsov). Possible upsets include Ginepri over (4) Andreev, Koellerer over (6) Tipsarevic, and Andrey Golubev over (8) Martin Vassallo Arguello.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko, Mikhail Youzhny, Denis Istomin, Daniel Koellerer
Notable Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Victor Hanescu, Igor Andreev, Marat Safin, Igor Kunitsyn, Robby Ginepri, Yen-Hsun Lu, Teimuraz Gabashvili
Semifinal predictions: Marat Safin over Robby Ginepri and Mikhail Youzhny over Fabio Fognini
Final: Youzhny over Safin
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Last year Valencia was a clay tournament equivalent to an ATP250 event and was played in April, very different from this year's Valencia. So I agree Ferrer won't be able to defend it.
I picked Davydenko to win, he's on a roll and he's very motivated to secure his place in London. As for Basel, it has got to be Fed.
nestor , 11/4/09 7:49 AM