djokovic over roddick and then nadal. at least, thats what im hoping for :)
and i think delpo will beat tsonga

Tokyo full tournament picks:

Delpo over RV in 2
Melzer over Mayer in 3
Santoro over Golubev in 2
Hewitt over Ito in 2
Simon over Suzuki in 2
Youzhny over Bellucci in 2
Beck over Schuettler in 2
Berdych over Soeda in 2
Isner over Wawrinka in 3
Greul over VA in 3
Chewy over Sela in 3
Monfils over Ilhan in 2
Steps over Gulbis in 3
Monaco over GGL in 3
Gasquet over PP in 3
Tsonga over Zverev in 2

Delpo over Melzer in 2
Hewitt over Santoro in 2
Simon over Youzhny in 3
Berdych over Beck in 2
Isner over Greul in 3
Monfils over Chewy in 3
Steps over Monaco in 2
Tsonga over Gasquet in 3

Delpo over Hewitt in 2
Simon over Berdych in 3
Monfils over Isner in 2
Tsonga over Steps in 2

Delpo over Simon in 2
Tsonga over Monfils in 2

Tsonga over Delpo in 3

Beijing full tournament picks:

Nadal over Baggy in 2
Blake over Mayer in 2
Safin over Acasuso in 3
Gonzo over Ferrer in 3
Denko over Kunitsyn in 3
Kohli over Ivo in 3
Benny over Daniel in 2
Cilic over Andreev in 2
Soda over Chardy in 2
Robredo over Becker in 2
PHM over Ljubicic in 3
Roddick over Kubot in 2
Nando over Ginepri in 2
JCF over Almagro in 2
Troicki over Fognini in 2
Djoker over Hanescu in 2

Nadal over Blake in 2
Gonzo over Safin in 2
Kohli over Kohlya in 3
Cilic over Benny in 2
Soda over Robredo in 2
Roddick over PHM in 2
Nando over JCF in 3
Djoker over Troicki in 2

Nadal over Gonzo in 2
Cilic over Kohli in 3
Roddick over Soda in 3
Djoker over Nando in 2

Nadal over Cilic in 2
Roddick over Djoker in 3

Roddick over Nadal in 3

Tsonga over Delp? Now that's interesting since Tsonga just got beat, saying he's tired, will he be less tired now? And Delp must be on an almighty high, so please elaborate.

Ricky, again Roddick over Djoker. You really think he is better player than Djoker. We'll see.

Ricky, what's your reasoning - Roddick over Nadal? Just curious, because there is a 5:2 h2h in favour of Nadal, and Nadal last beat him on h/c at I/W this year. I know it will be close, so either of them could win, but I'm interested in why you've chosen Roddick.

The fact is, le't wait and see who gets to the final, long way to go yet.

carrie - IW was ages ago and a completely different situation. Nadal was playing great then and 100 percent. In my opinion, Roddick would have a 50 percent chance against a 100 percent Nadal on a fast indoor hard court. With Nadal not being 100 percent, I would be surprised if Roddick lost to him on such a surface.

deuce - indoor hard courts = Tsonga. And he should not be tired since his week in Bangkok ended on Saturday.

Ricky: thanx! So good to have xpert on tap!

grumble grumble Ricky. Roddick over Nole.

japan open-

i kinda think i 'get' how you can pick tsonga over delPo. also, seems like tsonga might be all up about beating a new slam champ and i think i agree. but...delPo is looking to move on up!!

delPo battles back from a losing first set, in 3

maybe it's a stretch of my imagination but gulbis over steps in 3. gulbis has to be soo over losing!! gulbis on a roll takes monaco 3, too, winning two huge mataches back to back!! exhausted gulbis meets tsonga again but....loses to jo in straights.
end of story.

china open-

rafa v roddick or nole.....no surprises. rafa draw is pretty simple for him , if he is healthy. roddick and nole bruised after meeting each other.

rafa in straights.

realize my post is confusing; got side-tracked about gulbis winning 2 matches this tourney! the ultimate winner in japan has to be:

delPo in 3 over tsonga......go delPo!!

definitely roddick and nole have the hardest draws!! rafa doesn't have a real contest until gonzo....and i think we know who wins there...

i suspect a conspiracy? chinese favoring rafa....yep.....lol..

zoey, Lol.

zoey - well said, although it shouldnt count

Gulbis won 2 straight matches in Davis Cup and 2 straight matches this weekend in qualifying. Nothing matters until he wins 2 straight matches at an ATP tournament. Still has not done it since July.....of 2008!

hm, did not think about the qualifying matches, ricky.

sorta kills my joy for prospect of gulbis winning back to back when it matters. i did not actually watch him play since us open.

stepanek in 3, then. :(

carrie...chinese draw conspiracy, yep....just for you. and clearly, blatant rafa favoritism too...lol...

zoey, not quite, because the bottom half is scheduled to play before the top half, so that's favouritism to Djokovic. Don't forget that the main man is not there, so who knows how the draw would have panned out if he was there. Lol.

Prediction: Roddick over Baghdatis in 3

final prediction: Kubot over Florian Mayer by second-set retirement

I am not a big fan of predictions, but I did want to make a few comments. I am not sure that Roddick will beat Nole. These two are both playing some of their best tennis, so it should be a great match. I am calling it even, 50-50. Either one of them could win.

As far as Roddick beating Rafa, IF they both get there, I don't know about that one, either. But I would feel more comfortable after I see Rafa play. I will know after a few games in his first match. If Rafa is really healthy, then all I can say is watch out! I know that Roddick is a real threat being the defending champion, but Rafa has something to prove and that's when he can be his most dangerous.

Wow tough draws for Nole and Andy huh! But yay, tennis is back!

Vammos Rafa, I know you will try your best.

LOL... Ricky... Your last comment just pawned me... LOL

Oops, Rodick over Nole won't do. Rodick just lost to Kubot. Ricky your post
"final prediction: Kubot over Florian Mayer by second-set retirement" might be partly true.

wow, roddick's out - nole's got to make the finals now. and delpo's out too - shocking!

Ricky, is it back to the drawing board now?

Rafa won in 3 over Baghdatis. I have to admit it was hard work, but hey, he's just come back, so he'll get better and better. Score: 6:4 3:6 6:4.

Since I don't have a crystal ball, I steer clear of predictions, so I'll take one match at a time.

VAMOS RAFA!

Hmmm Djokovic-Soderling SF. Now THAT would be an interesting match-up!

Kubot over Benneteau 6-7(1), 7-6(3), 7-6(11) no breaks of serve

i just bet my house on Kubot.

Roger-Vasselin over Gulbis 6-1, 6-0 in the Tokyo final

once i cash in on Kubot, i'm putting everything on R-V, double or nothing.

carrie- must defer to your scheduling conspiracy expertise....lol...

little worried about picking rafa to win but rafa over nole in 3.

japan open- ??? my man delpo lost. : (

gulbis benefits from extra day rest and wins in 3 over steps. gogogo gulbis!!!

Rafa through to the 3rd round, it wasn't easy because Blake gave him a hard fight, but 'the win is the important thing, no?

The chinese loooooooooooove Rafa, and they are not alone.

VAMOS RAFA!

it was great to see rafa going after blake 2nd serves when it mattered most.He was agressive! nice...he is getting better and better. blake was among the only few guys who had a winning record against rafa! now its 3-3!! nalby leads 2-1 now !i dnt think any other player currently on the tour other than nalby has a winning record,given he has played atleast 2 mtches ...:):)
go rafa go!

gulbis and vasselin are still on the collision course :)

I have no idea what is wrong with Rafa these days. His strategy on hard courts seems to be serve awfully, play short , try to outrun his opponent and hang in there. I know Nadal usually isn?t in control of the match on fastcourts, even when he?s in top form. But these days he?s just playing short all the time. I can?t count the number of times yesterday (against Blake) when he had a sitter on his forehand that he could have smacked inside out or down the line, but he still chose to play it short cross court which Blake promptly smashed for a winner.

In the past Nadal?s short ground strokes were directed in the corner of the service box, which would yank his opponents out of the court bcoz of the topspin and the angle. Now he hits short down the middle which just sits up begging to be hit. His forehand looks loopy and ineffective. Furthermore he?s barely hitting his signature down the line forehands that curl in on the sidelines and go for a winner, or at the very least keep his opponents honest. Now his opponents know that he?ll just hit the lefty cross court forehand all the time.

Rafa lost sets to Blake and Bagdhatis both of whom have been in a slump and were serving subpar. Nadal also failed to close the Blake match twice on his service (double faulting two times), which is most unusual for him. This is not the Rafa I know, both from the game and concentration perspective.

Seems like Rafa will be in trouble once he meets the first solid HC player who has a decent serving day. It?s unfortunate that Rafa?s injuries have taken him back to the 2007 tennis level.. He needs to change his game on the faster courts, or he ain?t beating the top 4 players. Hopefully he can get back to his best, once he gets more matches under his belt.

imjimmy,

That's a pretty grim assessment of Rafa's tennis. If Rafa thought the way you did, then he would pack his bags and go back to Mallorca. Thank goodness he is smart enough to think positive.

What exactly did you expect from him after his second injury layoff? Considering how little he has played recently, I am grateful that he is doing as well as he is. I didn't expect to see the Rafa of earlier this year. Rafa said in his post match press conference that he only started serving when he arrived in Beijing. So he hasn't served in a month. Do you mean to say that you didn't notice the difference in his serve compared to the US Open? At the Open he had to adjust his ball toss much lower due to his abdominal injury. Now it's where it should be.

I don't think you are giving Blake nearly enough credit for playing some fantastic tennis. Just because he hasn't had a good year, doesn't mean that he isn't a quality player who is capable of playing great tennis. Rafa has had trouble with Blake in the past, so why should this time be any different? There are always going to be players who will give Rafa trouble on hard courts. As you know, this isn't his best surface.

Since you seem to think you know what it takes, maybe you should send Rafa an e-mail and tell him what's wrong and how to fix it. But then you're not the one who has to go out there and play. Rafa's had the layoff for the knee injury and then, just when he was cramming to get ready for the US Open in a very compressed span of time, he had this abdominal injury. He had to take time off again. Rafa needs match play to get back in form. Did you think he was just going to wave his racket like a magic wand and play like he did before he got injured?

It's easy to second guess and dissect and criticize his performance. What's not easy is figuring out how to win when you're not playing your best. Rafa blew his chance to win in the second set and it's true that this is not characteristic of Rafa. He has been having trouble with his concentration and focus since he started his comeback. But what you choose to ignore is how he came back strong in the third set. Many players would have quit and given up after failing to win the match in the second set. But Rafa isn't a quitter. I thought he played some of his best tennis in that third set. He got more aggressive, was hitting his shots with a lot more accuracy and managed to take control of the match. Fighting off a break of serve early in the third set at 0-40 was a key point in the match. I thought Blake was mentally deflated after failing to get the break.

Rafa doesn't have to change his game, be someone he isn't, or go into panic mode. You cannot possibly be a Rafa fan with your attitude. He is trying to get back to his best tennis and no one said it would be easy. But I like his attitude of never giving up, pushing himself to play better and working through a difficult time.

After reading your post, I have concluded that you really don't know Rafa at all.

With Rafa's style he needs to groove his game in, and taking injury time off means he needs time to get his game going. He's had to deal with seasoned players so far and, yes, he's not been at his best but I'm sure his team are working on it. This is not to take anything away from Baghdatis or Blake who, let's face it, are good enough to beat Rafa on their day even when Rafa is playing at 100%.

I was distraught when he lost his serve whilst serving for the match and I think that he is beginning to suffer from nerves at key points. Recently, I have noticed that he drops his serve immediately after breaking serve, so some mind tuning needs to take place. His team will know what the root problem is, and I'm sure they will sort it out.

Rafa gave me a few more grey hairs yesterday. I'm so on edge when he is not playing well, that sometimes I can't really take in what's going on. I enjoy watchng the recordings later when I actually know that he won the match. Let's not forget that he was unbeatable before his multiple injury time out, and he has said himself that he needs matches to be 100% at his game.

Looking forward to the Safin encounter, I hope Safin is in one of his walkabout moods.

VAMOS RAFA!

carrie,

I agree with your thoughts on Rafa. I was absolutely a nervous wreck last night. I was screaming and crying at the same time when Rafa failed twice to serve out the match. It's just not like him at all. That was nerves. I guess he needs confidence in his game and more mental toughness and concentration at key points in matches.

Thank you for reminding everyone that Blake and Baghdatis are really good players who are easily capable of beating Rafa at his best. Blake is always a tough opponent for Rafa on hard court. He played some brilliant tennis and had Rafa back on his heels in that first set. But Rafa is always thinking out there on court and makes the necessary adjustments. He managed to hang in there and then break to win the first set.

I know I have more gray hair after yesterday's match. I wonder what the grand total will be when this tournament is over. I also prefer to watch the replays of the match once I know the outcome. I could never have watched that third set live. I would have torn my hair out. When Rafa got down 0-40 early on, well that would have had me screaming all over again. But watching it after the fact and seeing how tough he was in coming back and holding serve, was much easier on my nerves. I think that was a key point in that set. Blake seemed kind of deflated because he realized that he missed a golden opportunity.

I will also agree with you and hope that the inconsistent Safin has an off day. I won't be able to watch the match. I was supposed to be in bed by now, it's 1:30 am here in L.A. So off to bed with sweet dreams and hopes of another win for Rafa.

Well, Native and Carrie, I don't know if Safin had a bad day or not but Rafa took care of him fast! The little bit I could see showed a Rafa playing like himself, hitting cross shots by the line, very few errors and high first serve numbers. If he keeps this up he might remain undefeated in China and take his first title since Rome, which amazingly enough would put him on top for victories this year, despite his injuries and off times. Vamos!

sorry I meant Titles... Nole is the victories leader right now.

Rafa was very impressive today and that will do wonders for his confidence. He still has a mountain to climb to bite the trophy, because the players left in the field are all in-form players, but he's got shot. I'm not looking further than his next match, but little by little he is finding his groove and he is serving well. He's never played Cilic, so they are both in unknown territory.

VAMOS RAFA!

tho delpo matured faster, i believe marin to be on his way into top ten in 2010. as for his first meeting with nadal, marin will do well to make the match competative, imo. the second time they meet will be more interesting tho. cilic is a quiet, smart, classy guy - great future rival for delpo and murray! time will tell.

rafa in straights

harder to pick the soderling v nole match. nole in 3. although i would love to see a soderling v rafa final! more tension than a rafa v nole match.

talk about no tension in a match = french- french in tokyo. tsonga wins and the two friends may extend to 3 sets, just as crowd pleaser exo. or someone politely
retires.

hewitt over youzhny in 3

tsonga wins final in straights.

wow, do i miss feddy!

zoey...i cannot search all threads right now...but have you heard from fft? has she decided to leave for a while?......

hey malty...hope you don't have the flu buddy ol pal. get some rest, k? xxo

fft had computer issues and was having to post from a library, is what i recall in one of her recent posts. she is coming back; i believe she will. i don't want to meddle in fft and carries' tiff cos it is seems really dumb. they both love rafa and are anti-feds...it is just that feddy lost to delpo that day, was under fire for cursing and fft was being fair while carrie and memi were being snide about the lexus 'meant' for rog. fft did not join in the drama that time thus threw a monkey wrench in the trash talk by not joining in with them. should all be water under the bridge by now, you know malt? forgive and forget, cos life is far too short.

mwah! lovely. gotta go back to work.

carrie,

After a night of much needed sleep, I watched the replay of Rafa's match with Safin on espn360. Their picture is so clear and you can actually see the ball. I already checked the score, of course, so I knew I would enjoy watching it. I think this is the best Rafa has played since he came back. He seemed to be totally focused all throughout the match. What I particularly liked is how he was able to save his serve when he was down. That to me is a sign that Rafa is mentally concentrating much better. He wasn't going to let Safin in the match. He had a lot of help from Safin, who made a ton of UE's. But it was great to see Rafa hitting more forehand winners and painting those lines. He is still not in the kind of form he was earlier this year, but this is very encouraging. I have to believe that he got a lof of confidence from his match with Blake. It's the tough matches that help you get into peak form.

As far as Cilic, I am not certain what to think about this match. This kid is a younger Delpo in the making and his huge serve and powerful shots could be trouble for Rafa. He is hungry and has nothing to lose, so you never know. But if Rafa plays really well, I think he will win.

Regarding Nole and Soderling, well either of them will be a tough opponent for Rafa. I do agree that I would prefer to see Rafa playing at his best before he meets Soderling again. No way do I want a repeat of that nightmarish match at RG! I think their semifinal could be very entertaining. Nole is playing quite well now and should win.

Rafa has a tough road ahead of him if he wants to win this tournament. But if he can play the way he did against Safin, then I like his chances. I think Rafa is hungry for a win and has something to prove. His match with Cilic will start after the first semifinal is completed. Since the first one is starting at 9:00 pm here in L.A., Rafa could be out there before midnight. I am going to try and stay up to watch it.

Good luck, Rafa!