Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Indoor season heats up in Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur

  2009-09-27 04:29:30
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  Thought the 2009 ATP season ended with the conclusion of the U.S. Open? Think again. There are still four 500-point events, two Masters Series tournaments, and of course the year-end World Tour Finals on the remaining schedule. This week, the two indoor hard-court tournaments are worth just 250 points, but the fields are much stronger than those of last week’s events in Bucharest and Metz. In fact, these are two of the best 250-point draws of the season. A total of four Top 10 players are in action; two in Bangkok (Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon) and two in Kuala Lumpur (Nikolay Davydenko and Fernando Verdasco).

   

  PTT Thailand Open

   

  Where: Bangkok, Thailand
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $608,500
  Points: 250
  
  Top Seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  Defending Champion: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

   

  Draw Analysis: The field in Bangkok is not quite as strong as that in Kuala Lumpur, but the Thai fans have little to complain about—in fact they will even witness the return of local hero Paradorn Srichaphan (albeit only in doubles). Last year’s champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is back to defend his title, and he has to be considered the favorite as the No. 1 seed.
  
  Tsonga took out Novak Djokovic in the 2008 final, but this year the Frenchman’s toughest challenger could be No. 2 seed and countryman Gilles Simon, who was a standout on indoor hard courts last fall. Simon, however, has been suffering from knee tendinitis and that will make the bottom half of the draw wide open.

   

  Third-seeded Sam Querrey won the U.S. Open Series and his power game should work well on fast indoor hard courts. Querrey is on a collision course with Simon for the semifinals, but the 6’6’’ American could first meet either Jurgen Melzer or Benjamin Becker in the quarters. Simon is in a relatively soft quarter of the draw where the other seeded player is No. 7 Fabrice Santoro.

   

  The top half of the field is unquestionably stronger, with Tsonga leading the way and an in-form John Isner expected to provide some serious resistance. Isner upset Andy Roddick en route to the fourth round of the Australian Open and before that he surprised Tsonga on his way to the Legg Mason Classic semis. Tsonga and Isner would not meet until the semifinals this week. In addition to Tsonga, No. 4 seed Viktor Troicki has the other first-round bye in the top half of the draw, but he has been dealing with an injured foot and he cannot feel good about his chances in a potential quarterfinal clash with Isner on indoor hard courts.

   

  Tsonga will open his Bangkok campaign against the winner of an interesting first-round clash between Ernests Gulbis and Somdev Devvarman. Another first-round match to watch is Marat Safin vs. Philipp Petzschner.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Because the top four seeds get byes straight to the second round, there won’t be any huge upset during the first few days of the tournament. As the No. 5 seed, however, Petzschner could be in trouble against Safin. Of the two, Petzschner has been playing MUCH better tennis this season, but Safin can still get hot at any moment. If the mercurial Russian plays well, the outcome of the match will be in his hands.
  
  The seventh-seeded Santoro also faces a difficult test in big-hitting opponent Evgeny Korolev, who bashes the ball at every opportunity and should be able to keep points short on a fast hard court. Like Safin, Santoro is slumping his way into retirement (although not quite as bad!), and Korolev won a Challenger title earlier this month.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Sam Querrey, Philipp Petzschner, John Isner, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Leonardo Mayer

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Viktor Troicki, Fabrice Santoro, Marat Safin, Ernests Gulbis, Danai Udomchoke, Rainer Schuettler

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over John Isner and Sam Querrey over Gilles Simon

   

  Final Prediction: Tsonga over Querrey

   

  Proton Malaysian Open
  
  Where: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $947,750
  Points: 250

   

  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
  Defending Champion: Inaugural Event

   

  Draw Analysis: I don’t feel like looking up the draws of every 250-point tournament in 2009 (although I’ll admit I am tempted to!), but it would be hard to imagine that this one in Kuala Lumpur is not the best of the entire year. If you know of one that was better, please mention it below!

   

  Just consider the four players with first round-byes (in order): world No. 8 Nikolay Davydenko, No. 9 Fernando Verdasco, No. 11 Robin Soderling, and No. 12 Fernando Gonzalez. Also headlining the field are No. 13 Gael Monfils, No. 16 Tomas Berdych, No. 19 David Ferrer, and No. 26 Lleyton Hewitt. That’s right; a former world No. 1 and two-time Grand Slam champion (Hewitt) is the eighth and final seed at a 250-point event! This inaugural Kuala Lumpur tournament is far better than a number of this season’s 500-pointers.
  
  If every one of the top four seeds reaches the semifinals, Davydenko would face Soderling and Gonzalez would go up against Verdasco. Of course that is unlikely to say the least, and Davydenko probably has the toughest road of the four. He could meet big-serving Taylor Dent in his opener before running into an in-form Monfils. Soderling is in the weakest section of the bracket, and he will almost certainly do battle with Berdych in the quarterfinals.

   

  Looking to prevent a Gonzalez-Verdasco semifinal in the bottom half of the draw will be Hewitt, Ferrer, Marcos Baghdatis, Mikhail Youzhny, and Richard Gasquet. Hewitt has an interesting first-round encounter on his hands against oft-injured and once-retired Joachim Johansson (this is a rematch of a 2004 U.S. Open semifinal). Hewitt could then meet Gasquet before facing Verdasco in a potential quarterfinal showdown.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Mikhail Youzhny vs. (7) David Ferrer. Neither man is playing particularly impressive tennis at the moment, and Youzhny is better suited for indoor hard courts. He should be able to dictate play with his one-handed backhand, and the fast surface should help his serve against a stellar returner like Ferrer. The winner will likely go on to meet Gonzalez in the quarterfinals.

   

  Johansson obviously has the talent to take out Hewitt—especially on an indoor hard court—but given his recent history, the Swede would do well just to make it through this match. A longshot is Denis Istomin over Monfils. Istomin reached the third round of the U.S. Open and Monfils, probably not 100 percent due to knee tendinitis, is coming off a long week in Metz. I would actually not be surprised to see Monfils pull out, in which case Istomin would face a lucky loser.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Fernando Verdasco, Robin Soderling, Fernando Gonzalez, Gael Monfils, Lleyton Hewitt, Taylor Dent, Simon Greul,

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Feliciano Lopez, Igor Kunitsyn, Marcos Baghdatis, Joachim Johansson

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Robin Soderling over Gael Monfils and Fernando Gonzalez over Lleyton Hewitt

   

  Final Prediction: Soderling over Gonzalez

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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