Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: ATP Tour action resumes in Bucharest, Metz

  2009-09-20 21:39:51
  

  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

   

  The 2009 season will soon heat up again with four 500-point tournaments, two Masters Series events, and the World Tour Finals still on tap before the year ends. First, however, the relative calm following the U.S. Open continues. After a weekend of Davis Cup action, the ATP Tour returns to take center stage this week with 250-point tournaments in Bucharest, Romania and Metz, France. Clay-courters will have one last chance for success on the slow stuff in 2009 as they head to the BCR Open Romania. Meanwhile, Metz kicks off the fall indoor season and is headlined by a plethora of Frenchmen and Germans.

   

  BCR Open Romania
  
  Where: Bucharest, Romania
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

  Top Seed: Victor Hanescu
  Defending Champion: Gilles Simon (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: All that needs to be said about the quality of this tournament is that Victor Hanescu is the No. 1 seed. No disrespect to Hanescu, but you know an ATP event is way down low on the totem pole when Hanescu is the top draw.
  
  Hanescu is not, however, the favorite to win the title. Although the 6’6’’ Romanian is playing in his home country and is surprisingly adept on the slow stuff, he is not a clay-court specialist. And he will be challenged by a host of players who thrive on dirt, including Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco, Igor Andreev, Albert Montanes, Marcel Granollers, and Oscar Hernandez. Hanescu has to go up against Hernandez in the opening round.
  
  Aside from that interesting first-round encounter, the top half of the draw is definitely softer than the bottom. Daniel Koellerer reached the third round of the U.S. Open and took a set off eventual champion Juan Martin Del Potro, so this is a good opportunity for the veteran Austrian to go deep in an ATP tournament. Monaco, who has been injured but reached a clay-court final in Bastad earlier this summer, should also contend for the title.
  
  In the bottom half of the draw, all four of the seeded players are serious threats to go all the way. A quarterfinal lineup of Andreev vs. Andreas Seppi and Almagro vs. Montanes would not be surprising to see. But unseeded sleepers such as Granollers, Simone Bolelli, Florent Serra, and Potito Starace are more than capable of crashing the party.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Potito Starace over (5) Albert Montanes. The No. 5 seed should be able to take care of business, but this is not the easiest of first-round matchups. Neither man is in particularly good form at the moment, but clay could provide an instant solution to their respective problems. Montanes is 2-0 lifetime against Starace at the ATP level, but Starace has won two of their three encounters on the Challenger circuit (all five previous meetings on clay).
  
  The top two seeds in Bucharest both face tough openers. In addition to Hanescu vs. Hernandez, Almagro has to go up against Bolelli. For a small tournament like this one, Almagro-Bolelli has the feel of a final showdown rather than a first-round clash.

   

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Daniel Koellerer

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Steve Darcis, Karol Beck, Andrei Pavel, Marcel Granollers

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Juan Monaco over Daniel Koellerer and Albert Montanes over Igor Andreev

   

  Final Prediction: Monaco over Montanes

   

  Open De Moselle

   

  Where: Metz, France
  Surface: Indoor Carpet
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250

  Top Seed: Gael Monfils
  Defending Champion: Dmitry Tursunov (not playing)

   

  Draw Analysis: Metz boasts a stronger field, with France’s own Gael Monfils leading the way. Monfils is joined by a cast of seeded players that includes fellow Frenchmen Paul-Henri Mathieu and Fabrice Santoro, along with Germany’s two Philipps (Kohlschreiber and Petzschner).
  
  The draw appears to be well-balanced in terms of even halves (although the top half is slightly stronger). Monfils’ potential road to the final (after a first-round bye as the first of the top four seeds) includes Jarkko Nieminen, Ivan Ljubicic, and Petzschner. Several Frenchman will also be looking to challenge Monfils; one of them is recently suspended Richard Gasquet, who played his first main-draw match since his return against Rafael Nadal in the opening round of the U.S. Open. Nearing the end of his career just like Santoro, Sebastien Grosjean hopes to treat the French crowd to one last memorable performance.
  
  First-round byes in the bottom half of the field go to Kohlschreiber and Mathieu. Sixth-seeded Benjamin Becker should be able to mount a charge through the draw, as the big-serving German will feel right at home on indoor carpet. Also look for up-and-coming Frenchman Josselin Ouanna to take advantage of his wild card. Ouanna reached the third round of the French Open and the second round of the U.S. Open (lost to Fernando Gonzalez both times). He opens against unheralded countryman Andrian Mannarino, then could meet No. 7 seed Andreas Beck. Denis Istomin, a third-round finisher at the U.S. Open, also could surprise.

   

  First-Round Upset Alert: Because the top four seeds get byes straight to the second round, there won’t be any huge upset in the first few days of the tournament. Two opening-round matches involving seeded players feature opponents with similar styles and could go either way. Becker meets fellow ball-basher Evgeny Korolev, and Santoro faces fellow veteran Christophe Rochus. Neither Santoro nor Rochus have the power game that most of today’s players employ, but they can showcase a variety of quirky shots and are never fun to play against.

   

  Both Becker and Santoro should prevail, but Becker is the more likely of the two to go down. He is remarkably inconsistent, and Korolev’s talent is unquestionable even though he is as up-and-down as they come.

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Gael Monfils, Philipp Petzschner

   

  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Fabrice Santoro, Benjamin Becker, Ivan Ljubicic, Sebastien Grosjean, Jarkko Nieminen, Janko Tipsarevic, Michael Llodra, Richard Gasquet, Rainer Schuettler

   

  Semifinal Predictions: Gael Monfils over Fabrice Santoro and Paul-Henri Mathieu over Denis Istomin

   

  Final Prediction: Monfils over Mathieu

   

  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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