Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer aims for sixth U.S. Open title

  2009-08-30 03:22:39
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every weekend he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week. This is the fourth of Ricky’s five-part U.S. Open preview series, running through Sunday.
  
  Part 1: Draw preview
  Part 2: Draw analysis
  Part 3: Top 25 contenders
  Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
  Part 5: Full tournament predictions
  

   

  U.S. Open

  Where: Flushing, New York
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $12,144,000
  Points: 2000
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  Defending Champion: Roger Federer
  
  First-Round Upset Alerts
  Jeremy Chardy over (13) Gael Monfils – Fast hard courts will give an in-form Chardy a great shot at taking out his favored countryman.
  
  Donald Young over (14) Tommy Robredo – Not sure Young has enough to win a best-of-five match, but he came through qualifying and Robredo is in a dreadful hard-court slump.
  
  Simone Bolelli over (15) Radek Stepanek – Probably won’t happen, but if Bolelli plays up to his great potential and Stepanek is not 100 percent, there’s a chance.
  
  Andreas Seppi over (23) Philipp Kohlschreiber – Kohlschreiber has been unspectacular this summer and a rock-solid Seppi is not who you want to play if you’re struggling.
  
  Fabrice Santoro over (24) Juan Carlos Ferrero – Ferrero is playing better than Santoro (and better than almost everyone in this tournament), but this is Santoro’s last hurrah in New York and who knows what kind of magic “the Magician” has left.
  
  Daniel Koellerer over (25) Mardy Fish – Koellerer is no kind of force on hard courts, but Fish has been dealing with all kinds of injury problems. This could be a free pass for Koellerer.
  
  Mikhail Youzhny over (26) Paul-Henri Mathieu – This one is a complete toss-up. Youzhny is finally playing decent tennis again, and this presents a good chance for him to do something at a major for the first time in a while.
  
  John Isner over (28) Victor Hanescu – This battle of big men will almost certainly come down to just a few critical points and, quite frankly, Isner is the far better of the two in crunch time.
  
  Peter Luczak over (30) Viktor Troicki – Like Koellerer, Luczak could be able to win just by keeping the ball in play. Troicki’s foot injury has destroyed his entire summer.
  
  Notable Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form)
  Roger Federer – French Open. Wimbledon. Twins. Federer is on fire in every way.
  
  Andy Murray – Has been on a consistent rise up the rankings, and is now No. 2 after winning the Montreal title and reaching the semifinals in Cincinnati.
  
  Andy Roddick – His resurgent 2009 campaign under coach Larry Stefanki continued this summer with a runner-up finish in Washington, D.C. and a semifinal performance in Montreal.
  
  Juan Martin Del Potro – Pulled out of Cincinnati because he had been winning (and therefore playing) so many matches. His summer has been highlighted by a title in Washington and runner-up showing in Montreal.
  
  Sam Querrey – Won the U.S. Open Series; not only did he play in every single event, he performed well at all of them (including three finals, one title, and a win over Roddick in Cincinnati).
  
  Juan Carlos Ferrero – The former world No. 1 at one point dropped out of the Top 100, but he is back in the Top 30 thanks to an amazing spring and summer that came out of nowhere.
  
  Lleyton Hewitt – See Ferrero.
  
  Jeremy Chardy – Won a clay-court title in Stuttgart earlier this summer and also reached the third round in Cincinnati. This guy can get it done anywhere on any surface.
  
  John Isner – Despite a spring bout with mono, he is enjoying a breakout summer: semis in Indianapolis, quarters in Los Angeles, and semis in Washington to go along with two match wins at Masters Series tournaments.
  
  Philipp Petzschner – He is finally recovered from a wrist injury, and health has paid off in the form of his best summer on tour.
  
  Notable Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games)
  Tommy Robredo – His summer results would suggest that Robredo is little more than a clay-court specialist at this point in his career.
  
  Radek Stepanek – Knee problem has slowed his progress after he was on fire earlier in the season.
  
  Marin Cilic – This part of the season (fast hard courts) should be his best, but the 20-year-old appears to be in the midst of some growing pains.
  
  James Blake – The days of high hopes for Blake at the Open are over. I’m not even sure that his foot injury is a valid excuse for poor play.
  
  Mardy Fish – Fish’s favorite time of year (U.S. hard-court summer) has been derailed by injury. It’s hard to imagine it getting better at the Open.
  
  Viktor Troicki – There’s a good chance he won’t even make it through one match due to the foot problem that has stalled his season.
  
  Marat Safin – The mercurial Russian is retiring at the end of the season. He probably wishes he had retired at the start.
  
  Dmitry Tursunov – Ankle injury has prevented him from doing anything of note this summer.
  
  Ernests Gulbis – Can barely win any matches in what was supposed to be a breakout season on tour for the 20-year-old. Drawing Murray in the first round adds insult to injury.
  
  Richard Gasquet – Speaking of adding insult to injury, Gasquet returns from suspension and promptly gets Nadal in his first main-draw match.
  
  
  Potential Surprises
  James Blake – In previous years, anything less than the quarterfinals in New York was a disappointment for Blake. Now, just making it to week two would be a pleasant surprise. Nothing indicates Blake will be able to accomplish that at this Open…until you look at his draw. As part of Federer’s quarter, Blake has every reason to reach the fourth round, and that’s even if he continues to play uninspiring tennis.
  
  Sam Querrey – It’s hard to say that the winner of the U.S. Open Series reaching the quarterfinals of the Open would be a surprise, but Querrey has never been that far at a Grand Slam. He has to be tired after all of this tennis; will it catch up to him, or will his hot streak carry on through the U.S. Open? Querrey’s draw would suggest the latter. He should breeze into the third round, at which point his possible seeded opponent is Robin Soderling, who has been dealing with an elbow problem. In the fourth round Querrey could face Nikolay Davydenko, whom he just took out in the New Haven quarterfinals.
  
  Fernando Verdasco – After a torrid start to the year, Verdasco is flying under the radar again. I doubt Saturday’s title in New Haven changed that, since most tennis fans are too busy getting ready for the Open to notice. There is no one in the “Djokovic” quarter of the draw who would be a heavy favorite against Verdasco, especially if the Spaniard is playing up to his incredible talent (as he did at the Australian Open). Verdasco feeds off momentum, and he has it now after overcoming Querrey in the Pilot Pen final.
  
  Fernando Gonzalez – When healthy (both physically and mentally), Gonzalez has been one of the best players on tour this season. The Chilean still has the power to blow almost anyone right off the court like he did at the 2007 Australian Open, and he could do just that looking at his section of the draw. Potential third-round opponent Tomas Berdych is dangerous, but Gonzalez is a much better big-match player. If Gonzo gets past Berdych and rolls into the second week, watch out, because like Verdasco, when he gets hot almost nothing can stop him.
  
  Jeremy Chardy – Chardy will have to come out blazing if he wants to get out of the first round (against Monfils), but if he manages to score the upset, a fourth-round appearance is possible. Potential third-round opponent David Ferrer is playing well, but Chardy is a better hard-court player and has already dispatched Ferrer on the surface this year (Johannesburg semifinals).
  
  Unseeded players who could at least reach the third round (based on either current form or a favorable draw): Igor Kunitsyn, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Mikhail Youzhny, Andreas Seppi, Somdev Devvarman, Leonardo Mayer, Simone Bolelli, John Isner, Julien Benneteau, Chardy, Robby Ginepri, Chris Guccione, Fabrice Santoro, Philipp Petzschner, Feliciano Lopez
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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