2009-08-17 04:29:28
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
It’s safe to say there is no longer a “Big 2” in men’s tennis. There’s not even a “Big 4” anymore. Is it a “Big 6,” or is it even more than that?
Whatever it is, the Masters Series Montreal only confirmed what we already knew prior to last week: the remaining big events this year are completely wide open. Next up is the second of back-to-back Masters Series tournaments; this one in Cincinnati.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both bowed out of Montreal in the quarterfinals, which at least means they will be well-rested for Cincinnati. But that’s just about where the good news ends for them; Federer suffered a shocking loss to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga after leading 5-1 in the third set, and Nadal only got little more than two full matches under his belt (his first-round win ended after seven games due to a David Ferrer retirement). Does either one have enough to halt the current surges of Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, and Juan Martin Del Potro?
Western & Southern Financial Group Masters
Where: Cincinnati, Ohio
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $3,000,000
Points: 1000
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Defending Champion: Andy Murray
Draw Analysis: The top eight seeds are the same in Cincinnati as they were in Montreal, where all eight reached the quarterfinals. Should the octet accomplish the same feat this week, none of the quarterfinal matchups would be the same; Federer would face Roddick, Murray would run into Del Potro, Novak Djokovic would meet Nikolay Davydenko, and Nadal would clash with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Before looking that far ahead, however, there are a handful of scintillating first-round showdowns. Those include: Ferrer vs. Stanislas Wawrinka, Marin Cilic vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero, Robin Soderling vs. Lleyton Hewitt, John Isner vs. Tommy Haas, Gael Monfils vs. Ivo Karlovic, and Tomas Berdych vs. Fernando Gonzalez. Berdych and Gonzalez also squared off in the Cincinnati first round last year.
Among the eight players with byes, the draw (which is without question well-balanced) was probably least kind to Roddick and Del Potro. Roddick could open with Sam Querrey (whom he beat two weeks ago in Washington), then could get either Soderling or Hewitt before colliding with Federer, the bane of his tennis existence. Del Potro could face Fernando Verdasco in round three before another installment of his rivalry with Murray.
As a whole, Federer’s quarter is easily the most loaded. Consider the players in Federer’s section: Federer, Ferrer, Wawrinka, Ferrero (recent Wimbledon quarterfinalist and Umag runner-up), Cilic, Soderling (French Open runner-up), Hewitt (Wimbledon quarterfinalist), Querrey (leader of the U.S. Open Series after three evnts), and Roddick. Federer’s potential path to the semifinals, however, is not necessarily too taxing, since he could only meet two—at most—from that formidable list.
First-Round Upset Alert: Ferrero over (12) Cilic. At 29 years old, a resurgent Ferrero has been arguably the most surprising player this season. In addition to his quarterfinal finish at Wimbledon and runner-up showing in Umag, he won a title in Casablanca, reached the Queen’s semifinals, and recently won two matches in both Washington and Montreal. Cilic, on the other hand, lost his openers in each of the past two U.S. Open Series events.
Other seeds in first-round danger:
(12) Soderling against Hewitt – This probably will come down to whose injury worse. All things being equal, Soderling is the more powerful player, but Hewitt could frustrate him by keeping ball after ball in play.
(9) Gilles Simon against Wayne Odesnik – Simon just barely outlasted Odesnik at the French Open, and even though clay is Odesnik’s favorite surface, the American will once again have a great shot at Simon. Odesnik is enjoying a solid U.S. Open Series, while Simon (by 2008 standards) has been freezing cold ever since the Australian Open.
(15) Tommy Robredo against Jeremy Chardy – Robredo has done nothing since getting destroyed by Juan Martin Del Potro in the fourth round of the French Open. Chardy does by far his best work on hard courts and Robredo does nothing of the sort, so Chardy should take this.
(10) Gonzalez against Berdych – This is a rematch of last year’s first-round encounter, which Berdych won in three sets. Gonzalez is playing better tennis right now and should get revenge, but you never know when Berdych’s talent will suddenly appear.
(13) Gael Monfils against Ivo Karlovic – This is not a good matchup for Karlovic, as Monfils is comfortable at the art of returning serves from 15 feet behind the baseline. Monfils can retrieve just about anything, but Karlovic is so dangerous no matter the opponent thanks to his serve.
Potential Surprises: The winner of the first-round blockbuster between Isner and Haas could conceivably reach the semifinals (especially if Haas is the winner). After all, the four seeds in their quarter of the draw are Djokovic, Davydenko, Simon, and Robredo. Davydenko has been in outstanding form of late, but his blowout loss to Murray in Montreal must have been a reality check. Djokovic, Simon, and Robredo have not been playing well this summer. Isner and Haas have been two of the most consistent performance over the past month, so anything can happen.
If Hewitt is 100 percent (he usually is not, and he certainly wasn’t in Washington or Montreal), he could reach the quarterfinals. His first-round opponent, Soderling, pulled out of Washington and withdrew from Montreal with an elbow injury. The Australian always gives Roddick trouble, so even though Roddick is borderline on fire, that potential third-round match could be special.
In Murray’s section, Victor Hanescu could be a surprise quarterfinalist. Fernando Verdasco is not overly daunting in round two, and Hanescu led Del Potro by a set and a break in the Montreal third round last week. They would meet again in Cincinnati if they both make it that far.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez, Robin Soderling, Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tommy Haas, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Sam Querrey
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Gilles Simon, Marin Cilic, Jose Acasuso, James Blake, Florent Serra, Marat Safin, Feliciano Lopez
Semifinal Predictions: Andy Murray over Andy Roddick and Rafael Nadal over Nikolay Davydenko
Final Prediction: Murray over Nadal
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Del Potro has pulled out of Cinci.
carrie , 8/17/09 7:01 PM
Ricky, sounds like this is what you hope will happen rather than what you think will happen, so all of a sudden Murray is a cut above the rest, just because he won Montreal. He was lucky because Del Potro got fatigue due to over playing recently, no way would Murray had beaten Del Potro yesterday if he was fresh.
Now Nadal is inferior to Murray is he, well we'll see how it pans out. If Rafa gets to the final, then I pick him over anyone, because he would have recovered his form, at least you don't think he is a slam buster. To suggest that Federer is a slam buster is really amusing, just because he lost to Tsonga.
carrie , 8/17/09 7:10 PM
Ricky! Your semifinal predictions! *shock*!!
stu , 8/17/09 7:12 PM
Sorry Ricky, got the Federer bit wrong.
carrie , 8/17/09 7:14 PM
carrie, thats terrible news. so the draw opens up for muzz again!
stu , 8/17/09 7:16 PM
This could be hope talking, but I honestly think that if Djokovic makes it that far, he's be a better pick against Davydenko for the semis. And considering the Rafa-Nole matches on clay were so close, given an injured Rafa, I would pick Nole for the finals as well. I think his biggest threat will be in R3 against Chardy/ Isner/ Haas....
stu , 8/17/09 7:21 PM
this is far from what I want to happen. I would have wanted DP in the semis, but he pulled out.
Like most other people, I want a Federer-Nadal final.
RickyDimon , 8/17/09 7:45 PM
aah...ricky.
what happens now DP out?
maxi , 8/17/09 11:41 PM
nothing, I had Murray over DP in the quarters. No Murray will probably beat Verdasco on his way to the quarters instead.
RickyDimon , 8/18/09 1:35 AM
I'm definitely one of those who wants a Fed-Nadal final...but Mandy is in the form of his life right now admittedly. And I have a feeling that A-Rod will go all out and fight teeth, tooth and nail if he should meet Roger in QF...I don't expect Roger will have an easy time with Andy R this time round.
Soderling is in Fed's half? I am so hoping for a Soderling and Nadal rematch...it'll be ultra interesting to see the dynamics and outcome of the match on a different surface.
My non-bias prediction:
Semi-final: Rafa over Nole, Murray over Roger
Final: Murray over Rafa
My ultra-bias prediction aka the outcome I really want:
Semi-final: Rafa over Nole, Roger over Verdasco
Final: Roger over Rafa
Ahhhhh wishful thinking at its best :P
jyannis , 8/18/09 2:09 AM
Murray is not winning Cincinnati. The last person to win the Rogers cup and Cincinnati back-to-back was Roddick in 2003. We all know the kind of form he was in then, and also what the competition was like. Roger, Rafa, Nole, Roddick will all want to prove their superiority over him this year coz of his new ranking. Also, Murray will be defending his title, always a little hard to do. Lastly, I think he will want to conserve his energy for the USO and he will not want this so bad when the going gets tough.
stu , 8/18/09 4:51 AM
stu...interesting analysis.apparently, murray is 'injured' quoting stiffness after montreal-i(dah!) sn't that the same after every tourny?sometimes i wish that players would just get on with it (and i dont include rafa here - he does JUST get on with it! which is why he so brilliant) -no complaints!-maybe murray is trying to 'put it out there' to scare the others off?
RICKY
..why dont you like murray's game?(I am not a massive fan either-and have given my reasons earlier- i watched the match over the weekend- he swears quite a bit on court-the 'f' word-camera just clips it and swings well away, media always apologise for the 'blue' language) - i would be interested to know, as you join hundreds of others.
maxi , 8/18/09 8:32 AM
things getting strange with number 3 besides Rafa's name things can change so quickly after the AO final at the begining of the year he owned the world now he is number 3, reminds me so much of Roger's 2008 the feeling of defeat of some one you have been cheering so long for and all the sudden he looses his touch. i think Nadal is changing his game slowly the 100% physical game is not applicable right now for him it will be quite interesting to see how he is going to do , he is having a friendly draw in cincy if he made it through that will give him a push towards USO if he doesnt i think he might find it difficult to get to the semi final there.so personally i hope for Nadal Roger final at cincy but i dougbt it i dont think both are that passionate for this title i hope Djoko do some effort the guy is becoming a shadow, woundering what is going inside his head, i prefer his game much more than Murray's, but after his loss to Nadal he got destroyed.
dont forget Roger from your prediction please i know the guy is busy with family and stuff and won 2 GS and he is looking up to his beloved NY city, the one champoinship that never betrayed him even in the worest times, but as i said dont forget about him remember everytime you did he did bounce again like he is saying
Gootsha ya!
Go Fed!
tennislover , 8/18/09 11:10 AM
The first thing we have to take into account is that Rafa is not yet 100% match ready, so whatever he achieves here is a bonus. He is doing well, but he has probably been adviced by his doctor to ease in slowly into match play, plus he is still finding his rythm. Having said that, I sincerely hope that he does well here, if he gets to the SF then there is no reason why he shouldn't win the title.
jyannis, I don't understand why you predict Rafa to beat Nole, but Andy M to beat Rafa. I think Nole is the one more likely to take it to Rafa than either Roger or Andy. AM has had a good run lately, but when he comes up against real opposition he falls short, so let's not get carried away just yet, because if Del Potro wasn't fatigued on Sunday, it would have been a different result. I will never pick Andy over Rafa ever.
Wawrinka seems to have lost all the umph he had at the beginning of the year, he seems less that the player he was even this time last year, and he has gone out in the first round. That must be so frustrating for him. Monfils really didn't play well yesterday against Karlovic, and it's not because of Karlovis's aces. There were times when Monfils could easily have won the point by lobbing Karlovic, but he chose to volley, and Karlovic is a serve and volley animal, so having lost your balance by returning his incredible serve, the best thing to do is lob him whilst he is waiting at the net.
carrie , 8/18/09 12:16 PM
carrier - Monfils played extremely well, Karlovic just played better. And there is no such thing as a good time to LOB Karlovic! He tried it a few times and of course it never worked, so he stopped doing it.
RickyDimon , 8/18/09 2:20 PM
carrie - the reason I picked Rafa over Nole is because Nole has been struggling with his game recently. Nole is one of the best players on tour and one to frequently give Rafa (and Roger and Murray) trouble, but as of late, he's been trying to find his mojo and fire and I somewhat feel he's not quite there yet, therefore I would think he'll come up short with Rafa, for this moment.
As for why Murray over Rafa - you said it yourself, Rafa is not 100% fit. Murray's style is sort of to return and rally and wait for the unforced errors from his opponent - and Rafa at less than 100% is more inclined to make those errors. Also adding that Murray is entering the tournament in a much better form, physically.
So that was what I based my thoughts on :)
jyannis , 8/18/09 3:40 PM
Ricky,
please tell me what is going on with verdasco's game right now? comparing him to the start of the year? just watched the match against garcia-lopez - no passion. and he working with cahill?
maxi , 8/18/09 7:07 PM
The stars are shining on Murray again. All threats disappear from the bottom of the draw to have him fresh, fit and ready for Roger or Roddick in the semis!
stu , 8/19/09 2:38 PM
Yes, the draw certainly seems to be opening up for Murray this week. I would have liked to have seem him play Verdasco. Still, exciting week ahead. Some great comments on here incidentally. Whilst I am taking Murray for the USO, i'm not sure about this week. I think Fed will win in Cinci.
Jamie1732 , 8/19/09 6:42 PM
Fed played a good match to beat Acacuso... He looks to be a lil bit too relaxed..
torres9 , 8/20/09 12:59 AM
are you watching the match against ferrer, torres? any comment? just wish fed would regroup. this is too close for me.
maxi , 8/20/09 7:34 PM
fed's heart's not in masters series anymore (imo).i know it not on his agenda - but as a fan - it frustrates me no end - i know he gotta preserve his energy for the slams - and may be that is his plan - but i just dont get it! he knows better than me, I s'pose.
maxi , 8/20/09 7:40 PM
do you know-have just listened to fed's interview- he described how well Ferrer was playing, at the beginning, he played 'horrible' allowing him (fed) to break early,then he said he (fed) played too many UE's and had to 'get his game together'-he was pleased he was put through his 'paces', accepted that he played horrible at moments too-that Ferrer was a 'quality' player' and that fed was pleased to get through to the next round. He seemed passionate to win-may be i am wrong in terms of his passion not existing for the masters? Just gotta trust in his game like millions of others.
maxi , 8/20/09 9:19 PM
Seems like all the top players are being put through their paces in Cincy. I know the weather is totally sucky because I am closeby. It's absolutely hot as heck, humidity is high, raining at the drop of a hat (we got 2 inches in 90 minutes but across town got zero rain--lol). Is it true Ricky that Cincy is considered one of the fastest HC around?
maxi, I never thought fed's motivation would lessen just because he broke the slam record. But some of the fed fans remarks have been weird concerning that.
fan4tennis , 8/20/09 9:37 PM
apparently Cincy is the fastest
RickyDimon , 8/20/09 9:55 PM
Hi fan4tennis, not sure why you addressed me? my post above was a general post (I think with myself! - trying to reassure ME about fed's passion - but i agree with you and what you say in terms of fed's hunger sometimes. He nonplusses me at moments, and others, well-he just shines. Am pleased he got through this match and learnt from it (on to the next one!).
maxi , 8/20/09 10:20 PM
maxi, I addressed you because of the comments you've made about 'fed's heart'. It is just a continuation of the talk SP and I have been having on another thread about motivation. Don't read anything more into it just because I addressed you, that's all.
fan4tennis , 8/21/09 3:23 AM
if the top 4 make the semis (seems to me like they will), and the top 8 continue doing as well as they have at the USO, this will be the most exciting US Open series I have ever watched!
stu , 8/21/09 5:36 AM
okay fan4tennis - i wasn't sure whether i had misread a post above, no more than that. you seem a very knowledgeable tennis fan and i enjoy reading your posts.
stu, it is very exciting - i agree - just read the mcenroes interview on tennis.x (they are at loggerheads as to who they think are going to win the USO). Johnny Mcenroe says its going to be one of the Andy's (murray/roddick), Patrick Mcenroe says it's gonna be Federer. Fights are already starting!
Of course, Federer is gonna do it!
maxi , 8/21/09 10:43 AM
maxi, with me also wanting Rafa to win everything until he is 60 and you wanting the same for Fed, all I can say is see you there.
Players need tough matches, it's painful for fans to watch but at the end of the day that's how they assess where their game is and I'm sure they feel much better winning a tough match than just strolling through. The last thing Rafa needed on his come back were easy victories before going into the USO. Let's face it, only the players know exactly why they lost a match, we have our theories, but only they know what they were thinking when they missed a forehand or when they served a double fault, we can only guess. I know commentators like to think they can get inside the minds of the players, but they can't.
maxi, I have noticed that since you started posting here, you have brought some calm onto this forum. In the past Fedfans and Rafans used to go at each other hammer and tongues as if their lives depended on it, but we have all mellowed, even I am now happy to say positive things about Roger which you wouldn't catch me doing before because it was like scoring an own goal.
carrie , 8/21/09 11:35 AM
carrie,i enjoy TT immensely.Things get very hot over on Tennis.x sometimes, it's nice to take a breather. you seem very knowledgable on this forum and I enjoy reading your posts about rafa because (imo), you CARE about rafa very much, you show the same passion for him, that I have for roger and I understand how upset you and the other rafa fans were when he got injured. because I (along with millions of fed fans - when roger went through his phase of losing - not through injury - but mental barrier/block/lack of concentration) - it's just horrible - i squirmed in those moments carrie - even now I still feel at essential moments in fed's game - he lapses - but i know deep down in me, he will dig deep (like he always does) and come up with the goods - when they have an 'off' day especially when you know how great your own player is and they dont come up with the goods - you just gotta go with it, with the flow - it's not pleasant sometimes, but what can you do? but like you say - as fans - we all go through the momentous occasions - the downfalls and the pinnacles - i just want to enjoy EVERYTHING about federer whilst he is here, in the game - on tennis.x he has given an interview (reading between the lines), I think after this year he wont mind so much about being No.1 - he wil still be a 'top' player, but his priorities will shift in terms of how many tournaments he plays - that will obviously have a knock on effect on his ranking, but i dont really care about that so much, I just want to see him still win and still be the champion that he is. I admire and respect rafa greatly. The same with Novak and I enjoy watching the resurgent roddick - these guys have personalities and charm - roddick makes me laugh some of the time because of his dry humour - i dont have the same feeling towards murray - i read some of the posts that you wrote about murray (very diplomatic), but he is taking the lead in the arrogance stakes right now - i know you have to 'big yourself up' - but again - he is everywhere - and i dont like it when he compares himself to roger or to rafa - sorry - but that's how i feel.
maxi , 8/21/09 12:46 PM
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Sun 06/05 03:03
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Mon 30/04 05:57
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No live scores today?
smr , 8/17/09 6:13 PM