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Ricky Dimon

  • Approach Shots: Nadal returns in Montreal, so does Federer

    2009-08-10 20:56:28

    “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

     

    Welcome back, Rafael Nadal. The tennis world is glad to see you. Well, the fans are, but your opposition probably isn’t!

    Nadal is coming back at just the right time for tennis fanatics, and just the wrong time for fellow pros. On the menu for the next action-packed month are two Masters Series events (Montreal and Cincinnati) and the U.S. Open. This week it’s the Rogers Cup in Montreal, and the hype surrounding it is without question at a zenith. Nadal is making his first appearance on the tennis scene since a shocking French Open loss to Robin Soderling, and Roger Federer is back for the first time since Wimbledon after becoming a father of twin girls. As if that isn’t enough, some of the top two’s biggest challengers are in outstanding form (specifically Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy Roddick).

    The result should be a Masters Series tournament that is both high-quality and wide open.

     

    Rogers Cup

    Where: Montreal, Canada
    Surface: Hard
    Prize Money: $3,000,000

    Points: 1000
    Top Seed:
    Roger Federer
    Defending Champion:
    Rafael Nadal

     

    Draw Analysis: In his first tournament since the French Open, Nadal was certainly awarded no favors by the draw. It’s almost hard to believe, but Nadal’s opening match will most likely come against fellow Spaniard David Ferrer, who was as high as No. 4 in the world just last year (Ferrer must first get past Viktor Troicki, but that is almost a certainty given Troicki’s recent struggles with a foot injury). Ferrer slipped at the end of 2008 so he is no longer ranked high enough to be seeded in Montreal, but for Nadal this is simply a brutal ask.


    If Nadal manages to advance, it probably will be just as difficult the rest of the way. He could face an in-form Sam Querrey and round three and Washington champion Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarterfinals.

     

    Of course, this is a Masters Series event so it’s not exactly going to be easy for anyone. Roddick, who finished runner-up to Djokovic last week, could meet Fernando Verdasco in the third round before a another installment of what is a borderline rivalry with Novak Djokovic in the quarters.

    Andy Murray’s section of the draw is absolutely loaded, but fortunately for the Scot he will avoid most of the potential threats. For example, Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez, Tommy Haas, and Ivo Karlovic are all in the opposite half of Murray’s quarter. Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Marat Safin, and Gael Monfils are all in the same sixteenth of the draw, but Murray could only meet up with one of them in round three.

     

    Aside from Murray being on Federer’s side of the bracket instead of Nadal’s, Federer clearly has the easiest road of “the Big 4.” His nearest seed is No. 16 Radek Stepanek, who has been dealing with an injury of late and had to withdraw from the Legg Mason Classic. The other seeded players in Federer’s quarter are Frenchmen Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon. Tsonga had not played since Wimbledon prior to last week and lost his opening match to John Isner (in a third-set tiebreaker). Simon has really been slumping ever since a quarterfinal showing way back at the Australian Open. Federer could, however, run into fellow Swiss Stansislas Wawrinka in the third round.

    Some first-round showdowns to note: Simon vs. Frank Dancevic, Hewitt vs. Ferrero, Safin vs. Monfils, Haas vs. Karlovic, Verdasco vs. Feliciano Lopez, and Philipp Kohlschreiber vs. Tomas Berdych.

    By the way, can someone—preferably a Nadal supporter—please explain to me why Nadal is in the doubles draw? Seriously, what is he doing playing doubles? When you have knees like those of Nadal, you simply cannot be playing any “meaningless” matches; especially not on hard courts. Terrible decision. Terrible.

     

    But hey, if you’re a Nadal fan and want to look at the glass half full, I guess it means he is feeling pretty darn good.

     

    First-Round Upset Alert: Frank Dancevic over (9) Gilles Simon. Dancevic needed a wild card (and he got one since he is Canadian) just to get into the main draw, but don’t let that fool you. He almost always does his best work during the U.S. summer hard-court swing and he recently made it to the Indianapolis semifinals. Dancevic advanced one round at the Legg Mason before battling Haas in an entertaining three-setter. Simon reached the semis of last season’s Rogers Cup, but he is not playing the same kind of tennis right now.

    Safin has no business beating Monfils, but he could do it if Monfils is not 100 percent physically. Same goes for lucky loser Andrey Golubev against Stepanek. Also don’t be entirely shocked if Feliciano Lopez upsets Verdasco in the clash of Spanish doubles partners. Lopez is not playing well, but he actually prefers hard courts over clay. Verdasco, meanwhile, has cooled off just a bit since a torrid start to his 2009 campaign.

    Potential Surprises: Isner has been the surprise of the summer so far; semifinals in Indianapolis, quarterfinals in Los Angeles, and most impressively the semifinals last week in Washington (where he upset Tomas Berdych in addition to Tsonga before falling to Roddick 7-5 in the third). Why stop now? The big man’s performance at the Legg Mason earned him a special exemption into Montreal, and his draw appears to be relatively kind. Isner faces qualifier Jesse Levine in round one and he would then meet unseeded Mikhail Youzhny, who took out Marin Cilic on Monday. A third-round showing (or beyond) is almost a likelihood for an in-form Isner.

    If he can get past Simon, Dancevic has a real shot at reaching the quarterfinals. Similarly, if Nadal is either rusty or just not 100 percent, Querrey could also make a run to the quarters.

     

    Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Roger Federer, Andy Murray, Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro, Nikolay Davydenko, Fernando Gonzalez, Dudi Sela, Lleyton Hewitt, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Tommy Haas, Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Sam Querrey

     

    Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Gilles Simon, Rainer Schuettler, Florent Serra, Marat Safin, Feliciano Lopez, Mikhail Youzhny


    Semifinal Predictions:
    Andy Murray over Roger Federer and Andy Roddick over Juan Martin Del Potro

     

    Final Prediction: Murray over Roddick

     

    Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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Comments

nadal is playing doubles because... hes feeling fine, he always does, and hes too stubborn to change it up and play less?? agree with u, absolutely dreadful decision. Hope he lsoes first round cos that can't do much damage.

If Murray wins this hes no.2, right? Please don't let that happen.

U need to get a new twitter account or something... ur missed.

kaitepai01 , 8/10/09 9:38 PM


Great prediction there Ricky.I daresay,its the most likely scenario so far.That said the long break could result in some huge surprises.Players doing well could end up not doing that well and players who've been in minor slumps could rise again-the break giving them a good time to set things right.
I do see Nadal putting on a decent showing here though its hard to comment without having watched him play.
Djokovic again is too unpredictable.But HC seems to be his best surface, so who knows...

janhavi , 8/10/09 9:59 PM


No Davydenko being a true threat to Murray? I was thinking, given his good form as of late and their head to head, Davy might pull off beating Murray once again. I doubt it though, but there have been many upsets in my book so far, even without the big names starting.

Recordbreaks , 8/10/09 10:03 PM


Truth be told I am surprised with Rafa's decision in the doubles. No matter how darn good he is feeling, he IS coming back from a rather serious injury and I reckon that still warrants the whole dipping toes in water thing. But I guess Rafa (and his entourage) knows what best, so I hope that is the best decision for him.

No Rafa in semis, Ricky? I think he might just surprise everyone! I am seeing him in the finals, and maybe even potentially winning it!

I am ITCHING for a Roger v Rafa final (and let's face it, so is 80% of the TennisWorld) but yeap really tough semi-opponents if they get that far...Nole and Mandy are no pushovers after all. Really hope for Roger to pull off a win over Murray cos I think he needs it...but gonna be tough. Am still questioning whether is Murray "in Roger's head".

Anyway can't wait for this to fully start...been having tennis (or more notedly, Roger and Rafa) withdrawals.

jyannis , 8/11/09 12:49 AM


Ricky, he and the 'aged' Roig did win their first doubles match so maybe it is just a confidence builder ... a way to test the knees.

smr , 8/11/09 12:57 AM


Rafa loves doubles; also he says it's good for net play. I trust him.

mara2 , 8/11/09 2:12 AM


Cheryl said he looked good.

Still don't agree with the decision.

RickyDimon , 8/11/09 3:51 AM


wow Ricky, you didn't even bother to analyze Djokovic's section of the draw. should we be writing him off already?!

stu , 8/11/09 4:30 AM


stu - yes I did. It's the least interesting, and I mentioned the three most interesting players (at least at the momet) in it: Roddick and Djokovic (who should meet in the quarters), and Isner, who is probably the only threat to derail a Djokovic-Roddick meeting.

RickyDimon , 8/11/09 6:21 AM


for the SF's, i pick murray over fed in 3 [unless its a grand slam, i dont see fed beating the scot], and delpo over roddick in 3, then i got murray over delpo in 3 as well.

im looking forward to fed vs tsonga, delpo vs rafa, djoker vs roddick QF's, they should be great matches. also interested to see how others like verdasco, gonzo, isner, haas and hewitt will play.

hoping for a roger vs rafa final but i dont think it will happen in montreal, hope it will be at US Open though, one can only hope :)

redpanda , 8/11/09 11:40 AM


I'm kind of looking forward to Roddick vs Verdasco they haven't played in a while.

smr , 8/13/09 3:30 AM


if Federer can get far in this tournament and the next one, he will get extra points to be year end number one, because last year he got like 150 points from this two tournaments and 2000 from the Us Open, so I believe he is very motivated to get very far into this two master 1000 tournaments, in the other hand, he doesnt have the lack of confidence that troubled him last year or the begining of this, so i do believe he can beat murray on the semis, no pressure, less unforced errors. I also believe he could face davydenko instead of Murray.
On the other half of the draw, I really dont think Nadal could beat an in form Del Potro, also, he got to the third round without really playing, so he hasnt goten any practice against a tough player. An i also believe that Roddick is in great shape right now. My guess is Roddick beating federer on the final
On the half of the draw, as ricky da

mdmch , 8/13/09 3:56 AM


mdmuch, your post is interesting. i watched federer play yesterday and indeed he was rusty (his returns anyway), i am sure the more match practice he gets, the more his 'on game' will return. but i think it is the same for everyone out there. they are all playing down their chances of winning the tournament. hedging their bets. i always think that federer now has his sights set on the slams and that is his focus more than any of the other tournaments. perhaps if he was starting out or had been on the tour for say 3 or 4 years, you know, at the start of his career, than his goals would be different. i still think he will be around for another 4-5 years - he certainly intends on being at the 2012 olympics and i will, for sure, go and see him there. in the masters series, surely, he again steps up to the challenge but i dont see him as hungry in these tournaments. Though, i contradict myself now, whereby he says he wants to end the year as no. 1 so i guess, that being the case, he will be out to gain as many points as he can, naturally. so i have kind of shot myself in the foot now. i guess i am typing and thinking at the same time, one ahead of the other. but i do think he is in with a shot, i just see roddick more hungry and murray more hungry as well as delpotro. that is not say that i dont think fed can beat them. i do. but they all have points to prove. he doesn't have that point to prove anymore. so i guess it comes down to how much he wants to win the tournament. i still want him to have the killer spirit, that hunger that surpasses anything i have ever seen before. a lot of the journalists are now saying he is going to lack the motivation (the guy can do nothing right can he?), but over and over again, he states how much he loves the game. and let's face it. this has been his life since he was 6 years old, so to suddenly bow out, losing that motivation i cannot see that happening to fed until another 5 years as i say. but i think provided he keeps that motivation, determination and hunger, fed can still go on to win. he trains every day. has a great team behind him and so i support him all the way as a fan to go deep into this tournament, and want him to keep that self-belief.

maxi , 8/13/09 11:41 AM


Hi Maxi, thank you for your reply, i read your posts on another threat, i dont remember where, but you were speaking about the never ending debate about Nadal and federer, and about Tennis.x, I liked them. I agree we should stick to the tennis performance, technique, tactics, strategy and mental aspects of the game, and stop talking about personalities issues.
About Federer, I believe he is yet to show his very full potential, thats because, after breaking almost every record in tennis, he is more free to experiment with new ways of playing, untill now he was "obligated" to play in a kind of traditional way, because thats what worked and got him to be almost indisputably the Best player to ever play the game, but now, he is 28, I believe he will want to play untill 35 or more, he is amazingly fit, and never got seriously injured. So I conclude that, given he doesnt have to prove anything to no one, he will want to try new things, things no one have ever done before, he will loose a few matches because of this, but, like someone said, Federer is like the bethooven of tennis, so he will want to make his game the most artistic that can be. I am very sure we are yet to see the very best of him, and most importantly, his very contribution to tennis evolution

mdmch , 8/13/09 5:13 PM


mdmuch, i think i am going to like you - very much!

maxi , 8/13/09 5:42 PM


jaja, me too Maxi, there is something intersting about you, You and Malt1 (the one they are saying that is your previous being) are the only ones that call me mdmuch, (coincidence?) i wont tell either way, i like Malt1, I only noticed that she disapeared lately because she use to post a lot, but I havent been here since wimbledon, so I wouldnt know. In the other hand, why Malt1 would want to change her name?. There are certain coincidences between you guys, but I still think you are different persons, sorry to bring this up..

mdmch , 8/13/09 5:49 PM


aahh..md...you are not the first person who has said that. a simple mistake on my part....looking at your name....'mch'...i have only just noticed. i guess mch - much - similar....? yet my eye sight is 20:20. i will get it right for next time. apologies.

you seem to be very analytical in your precis of federer md - i like the fact that you go into his game very carefully. that is an area i would like to improve on, so i think that i will learn a lot from you. and dont apologise. i think of lots of situations where people can come across as the same - think of the artists who paint similar pictures and then are found out for being 'fake pictures' - you know - turner watercolours and then there was a guy who even the experts said was Turner - 'turned' out to be not him. you know what i am saying. but then i could get all philosophical here and talk about deja vu/reincarnation - you know where you think you 'know' someone. it's a wonderful thought actually.

i post a lot on tennis.x and also read a helluva lot on bleacher. i love tennis md - love it! i tried very hard to get tickets to go to wimbledon this year - but missed out - so will try again for next year, happened to me earlier on this year as well, when i was travelling in Australia - missed getting tickets again and so headed to perth instead and swam with the rockinham dolphins! just up from monkey mia! if ever you get the chance you must go! so analyse away md!

maxi , 8/13/09 6:05 PM


Wow. It's just occurring to me that A-Rod is on Rafa's side of the draw.
Hmmm.

mara2 , 8/13/09 10:14 PM


Wow! Roger is going to play in just a few minutes to win another match toward the inevitable! LOL :) Go Roger go! Go FED go! C'MON! Just do it! :) Malty where ever you are! I love you! You were the "truest" spirit on this site (and sadly missed by many)! The most BEAUTIFUL and SUPREME! LOL Tons of fun too! May you prosper... I know, I know one game at a time... What's the hurry! LOL :) C'MON!

sky , 8/14/09 1:04 AM


I just realized that this has been a perfect tournament so far! The top 8 have made it to the quarters! Hope it stays that way till the semis! :D

stu , 8/14/09 5:33 AM


I am going to take a risk and predict the last four players. Roddick over djokovic. Andy is in a momentum right now, and his confidence might be very high, in the other hand Novak, is yet to discover his full potential, he doesnt really believe in himself, he tries to show everybody else who he is, instead of working to earn it.
Del Potro over Nadal. Rafa off course is, with Federer, the best player in the world right now, but This is only his third match in singles competition, and he hasnt face any true competitor to his talent, Del Potro is trying to make a point, that he not only can win 500 tournaments, but also can compete in the big league, he is also on a winnig streak, he has this inertial force that will drive him to beat Nadal ( i believe). Nadal will facea rythm, tactics and strenght that he hasnt face in almost 3 months, so he is kind of lacking the practice. My guess is Del potro over Rafa in 3.
Davydenko over Murray. Nikolay has won back to back tournaments lately, he is on a winning streak, got back to the top ten, and solidly building his confidence. He beat Murray on the Master cup last year. Murray is too worried about other people expectations, and less on evolving as a player, in the other hand Andy is very good at this kind of tournaments, so is going to be a tight match. Federer over Tsonga. Roger has only played two matches since wining Wimbledon, and that explains why he hasnt been much "solid" ( even thought he has won his last two matches on straight sets), why his serve hasnt been as good as in wimbledon. But lets remember that Roger has won ( by this date) 21 straight matches, 3 straight titles. tsonga is too erratic, and my guess is that he will be trying to go for the winners at a very high price of too many Unforced errors. I believe Federer on two.
What do you think?

mdmch , 8/14/09 4:09 PM


why do these matches start so late in the day, i can't kill time at work in the mornings! :P

stu , 8/14/09 6:49 PM


hey mdmch, so far you've got both predictions wrong...i hope the other 2 are wrong as well :)

stu , 8/14/09 11:25 PM


well Fed really choked away what would have been a perfect semifinal for my predictions!!!

RickyDimon , 8/15/09 6:54 AM


ricky. why do you think this happened? he was 5-1 up and usually performs so well under pressure situations. i dont get it. i read somewhere, that at that point fed saw 'murray' the other side of the net. do you think he just lost focus for that split second and then turned to jelly? I just dont understand? or may be he thought he wanted a couple of days off with his girls (mirka plus twins)?

maxi , 8/15/09 8:55 AM


Ricky ... US Open question ... if Andy M takes #2 will that be his seeding or is it decided earlier like the whole (six weeks before) US series thing ?

smr , 8/15/09 2:44 PM


Ooh, good question smr. If he does become #2, I hope it reflects as his seeding for the USO. This way Rafa and Nole won't meet each other till the finals! :D

stu , 8/15/09 5:44 PM


That would be a good final stu. :)

smr , 8/15/09 6:26 PM


smr and stu - Murray would be in position for the No. 2 seed, but Nadal would have a chance (albeit an extremely slim chance) to regain it in Cincinnati.

Seeding is done according to the rankings after Cincinnati.

RickyDimon , 8/15/09 8:48 PM


Nadal and Federer have been playing against each other since 2004, and this rivalry is a significant part of both men's careers:

They are the only men in the open era who have played each other in 7 Grand Slam finals, with Nadal winning 5 of the 7 finals. Three of these 5 wins were on Nadal's best surface (clay), and he has beaten Federer twice in non-clay major finals: Wimbledon 2008 and the Australian Open 2009.
Their 2008 Wimbledon final has been lauded as the greatest match of all time by many long-time tennis critics.
Many critics consider their rivalry to be the greatest in tennis history.
Nine of Nadal's 13 wins over Federer have come on clay courts, Nadal's best surface. Nadal leads their overall head-to-head series 13-7 (Nadal leads 9-2 on clay, Federer leads 2-1 on grass, nobody leads (3-3) on hard courts).

carrie , 8/15/09 11:59 PM



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Mon 14/05 03:45
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Mon 30/04 05:57
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