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2009-07-27 06:44:54
“Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
The U.S. Open Series goes onward and upward--toward the U.S. Open--with Indianapolis champion Robby Ginepri as its current surprise leader. But it doesn't have the show all to itself quite yet. The clay-courts will still have their days in the sun, this week in Umag and Gstaad.
LA Tennis Open
Where: Los Angeles, California
Surface: Hard
Prize Money: $630,500
Points: 250
Top Seed: Tommy Haas
Defending Champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)
Draw Analysis: The U.S. Open Series gets better and better from start to finish, and destination No. 2 on “The Greatest Road Trip” in sports is a clear upgrade over the previous stop. Indianapolis had to contend with being in the same week as Hamburg, so its signature players were mostly the second-tier crop of Americans. Los Angeles has been able to do better in compiling its field.
Among those making their way from Indianapolis to Los Angeles are Dmitry Tursunov, Sam Querrey, Robby Ginepri, John Isner, Marcos Baghdatis, Dudi Sela, Ernests Gulbis, Marc Gicquel, Benjamin Becker, and Taylor Dent. Gicquel, Denis Istomin, and Yen-Hsun Lu—all of whom were seeded in Indianapolis—are unseeded this week. That’s because Tommy Haas, Mardy Fish, and Marat Safin are making their first U.S. Open Series appearances.
Haas and Fish have byes straight to the second round as the top two of the first four seeds. Safin, on the other hand, faces a brutal first-round showdown against Robby Ginepri. Ginepri and Safin are in a much tougher top half of the draw that also includes Haas, Querrey, and an in-form Sela.
The bottom half is home to some dangerous players, but players who are also inconsistent. Fish, rather up-and-down himself, will battle for a spot in the final along with Isner, Baghdatis, Tursunov, and Frank Dancevic. Baghdatis and Dancevic will square off in a marquee first-round matchup. Chris Guccione is also a threat near the bottom of the draw; like Isner, he is someone nobody wants to face due to his huge serve.
First-Round Upset Alert: There are not too many chances for a substantial first-round upset since the top four seeds have byes, but one that should happen is Ginepri over the eighth-seeded Safin. In his final season on the ATP Tour, Safin has been nothing short of awful. The two-time Grand Slam champion and former world No. 1 is struggling to win any matches at all and seemingly unable to find any motivation. This outcome will probably all come down to how Ginepri recovers from a long and successful week in Indianapolis.
So, too, will Isner’s chances of taking out of the seventh-seeded Becker. Isner ran out of gas late in his Indianapolis quarterfinal and during his semifinal, but if the 6’10’’ American is close to 100 percent, he can serve Becker right off the court.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Tommy Haas, Dudi Sela, Sam Querrey, Frank Dancevic, Jesse Levine, Leonardo Mayer
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Igor Kunitsyn, Marat Safin, Marc Gicquel, Ernests Gulbis, Marcos Baghdatis, Vince Spadea, Yen-Hsun Lu
Semifinal Predictions: Tommy Haas over Sam Querrey and Dmitry Tursunov over Mardy Fish
Final Prediction: Haas over Tursunov
Studena Croatia Open
Where: Umag, Croatia
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
Defending Champion: Fernando Verdasco (not playing)
Draw Analysis: The U.S. Open Series will not be overshadowed this week by a 500-point event (like Hamburg), but the tournament with the best field is once again in Europe. The Croatia Open is headline by No. 1 seed and Hamburg champion Nikolay Davydenko, No. 2 seed and Hamburg semifinalist David Ferrer, former world No. 1 Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Croatia’s own Ivan Ljubicic.
Other threats in the draw include Viktor Troicki, Jurgen Melzer, Nicolas Almagro, Andreas Seppi, Mischa Zverev, and surprise Hamburg semifinalist Pablo Cuevas. It’s a draw that also appears well-balanced, with Melzer, Almagro, Zverev, Cuevas, and Ljubicic joining Davydenko in the top half. The bottom section—perhaps slightly weaker—boasts Ferrero, Troicki, and Seppi in addition to Ferrer.
Ferrero and Troicki could be in the most difficult quarter due to the number of clay-court specialists there. On their way to a potential semifinal berth, they will have to contend with Maximo Gonzalez (Troicki in round one), Oscar Hernandez, and Potitio Starace (possibly Ferrero in round two).
The most electric—not necessarily most competitive—first-round showdown will almost certainly be Ferrer vs. Daniel Koellerer. Fireworks should come early and often with the always-unstable Ferrer and “Crazy Dani.”
First-Round Upset Alert: Maximo Gonzalez over (3) Viktor Troicki. Troicki is in fine form at the moment—even in position to be seeded at the upcoming U.S. Open—but even though he is solid on dirt, he is not a clay-court specialist. That’s exactly what Gonzalez is. The Argentine does all of his work on the slow stuff, and his recent breakout came by reaching the third round of the French Open.
Three qualifiers—all of whom are clay-court specialists—also could cause trouble in the first round, and maybe beyond. Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo faces a recently-injured Simone Bolelli, Juan Ignacio Chela goes up against Seppi, and Marcel Granoller meets Nicolas Almagro.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko, Viktor Troicki, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Mischa Zverev, Simon Greul, Pablo Cuevas, Fabio Fognini
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Nicolas Massu, Christophe Rochus, Filippo Volandri
Semifinal Predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Mischa Zverev and David Ferrer over Juan Carlos Ferrero
Final Prediction: Ferrer over Almagro
Allianz Suisse Open
Where: Gstaad, Switzerland
Surface: Clay
Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
Points: 250
Top Seed: Stanislas Wawrinka
Defending Champion: Victor Hanescu
Draw Analysis: The biggest news this week in Switzerland, of course, is the Federer Twins. Nonetheless, there is an ATP event there this week and it will try do its best to steal some of the headlines. It just might because Switzerland’s own Stanislas Wawrinka is the No. 1 seed. Wawrinka is at his best on clay, so he has to be the favorite to take this title.
The Swiss is in a top quarter of the draw littered with qualifiers, and his first real test could come in the quarterfinals possibly against the winner of a tough first-round match between Nicolas Kiefer and Jose Acasuso. Igor Andreev, Mikhail Youzhny, and recent ATP title winner Jeremy Chardy are also bidding for a final spot in the upper half of the draw.
Philipp Kohlschreiber, Victor Hanescu, and Hamburg runner-up Paul-Henri Mathieu headline the bottom section. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, who faces No. 7 seed Feliciano Lopez in the first round, should have the best chance of doing some surprise damage at the expense of those seeded players.
Arguably the most anticipated match of the first round is already complete, as Youzhny defeated 2004 French Open champion Gaston Gaudio on Sunday. Youzhny prevailed in three sets and could meet Chardy in round two.
First-Round Upset Alert: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez over (7) Feliciano Lopez. Don’t be fooled by the (ESP) next to Lopez’s name. He is from Spain no doubt, but he does not thrive on clay like most Spaniards. Lopez actually prefers fast hard courts and grass. Garcia-Lopez is also from Spain, and he most definitely is a clay-court specialist. GGL even won a clay-court title just prior to Roland Garros, and he should really be considered the favorite in this one.
Other potential upsets to watch for are Acasuso over Kiefer and Marcos Daniel over Mathieu. Clay gives Acasuso a fighting chance Daniel could be able to capitalize on the fact that Mathieu is coming off a long week in Hamburg, where he finished runner-up to Davydenko.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Philipp Kohlschreiber, Victor Hanescu, Jeremy Chardy, Paul-Henri Mathieu,
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Feliciano Lopez, Florent Serra, Mikhail Youzhny, Jan Hernych, Jose Acasuso
Semifinal Predictions: Stanislas Wawrinka over Igor Andreev and Victor Hanescu over Philipp Kohlschreiber
Final Prediction: Wawrinka over Hanescu
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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Ricky....a couple of things....i know that baghdatis is not the player he was since his recent injuries......but i really believe that he can come back from this....been reading a lot of positive reports from cypriot doctors about his recovery/progress and i would like to know in your opinion...do you think that he will be able to improve (massively)...on his current position of 141?...i mean...it's only gonna take more competitive tennis and a will to win...right? I know jumping ahead to montreal and hence eventual USO...but how do you see Marcos performing....
apart from that......i know not relevant in this comp....but predictions on Juan Monaco please......
malteser1 , 7/28/09 6:54 PM
so,you think Davydenko isn't gonna be at least in the semis,Ricky??
sisterofnight12 , 7/29/09 12:08 AM
Davydenko is clearly the most talented player in the Umag field, question is if he's 100% motivated to gun for a 250p clay title week after winning a 500 and right before going into the US-hard courts. Hamburg got him back into the top 10 where he belongs. Don't have a 250 title this year though and points are points.
derstatic , 7/30/09 8:46 PM
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Nice article and I agree with most of your conclusions.
I think Hanescu could run out of energy before the finals this week. He's gone deep into his last tournaments F, QF and played a few long matches. Good form no doubt and reigning champ should motivate, but if the body stops it stops.
Kohlschreiber didn't look very good in Stuttgart or Hamburg. Lacked intensity and looked tired and unmotivated. Only started playing decent tennis matchpoint down even in front of his home crowd. That's weak.
Lets hope that Wawrinka can get his act together after his embarrasing performance in Hamburg. Guess he should walk his first round against 300+ ranked Del Bonis and hopefully an easy win there can get him going. Brilliant player to watch when that backhand is on fire.
derstatic , 7/27/09 4:20 PM