Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Hamburg overshadows start of U.S. Open Series

  2009-07-20 18:53:28
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.

  The start of the summer hard-court swing is officially underway with the onset of the U.S. Open Series in Indianapolis. None of the expected top contenders, however, are in action at an event that is worth just 250 points. Instead, the Indianapolis Tennis Championships will be overshadowed by the International Hamburg Open. Hamburg has been downgraded from a Masters Series to an ATP 500 tournament, but it still boasts a strong field. So while the summer hard-court season heats up, it won't be stealing headlines quite yet; the never-ending clay-court season is STILL in progress.
  

  International German Open
  

  Where: Hamburg, Germany
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 1,115,000 Euros
  Points: 500
  Top Seed: Gilles Simon
  Defending Champion: Rafael Nadal (not playing)

  Draw Analysis: Hamburg is no longer a Masters Series event--nor is it even during the same time on the ATP calendar as it once was--but it still plays host to an impressive field as one of the bigger tournaments on the ATP World Tour (outside of Masters and Grand Slams). Top 10 player Gilles Simon headlines the draw, and he is joined by former Top 4 stars David Ferrer and Nikolay Davydenko as well as an on-fire Robin Soderling.

  Ferrer is in a brutal quarter of the draw that features a plethora of clay-court talent. The No. 6 seed could face Juan Monaco in the third round, but Monaco will play clay-court specialist Jose Acasuso in round two if he gets through his opener. No. 4 seed Tommy Robredo, owner of two clay-court titles already this season, is also in this section.

  Arguably the second most difficult quarter features Robin Soderling, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Nicolas Almagro. Soderling reached the French Open final and just won a clay-court title in Bastad, Kohlschreiber made it to the fourth round at Roland Garros, and even though Almagro is slumping, he has always been a major force on the slow stuff.

  Simon is not playing like he did in 2008, so the favorite to reach the semifinals out of the top part of the draw is probably Stanislas Wawrinka, whose favorite surface is clay. In the bottom quarter, No. 2 seed Nikolay Davydenko has a solid chance to get back on track following an ankle injury, but he could face both of last week's Stuttgart finalists (champion Jeremy Chardy and runner-up Victor Hanescu) on his way to the semis.

  First-Round Upset Alert: All of the 16 seeded players have byes straight to the second round, so no first-round result between fellow unseeded floaters would be a huge shock. Watch out, however, for Mikhail Youzhny against Monaco and wild card Florian Mayer against Rainer Schuettler. Monaco is playing far better than Youzhny right now, but the Argentine could be fatigued after a run to the Bastad final. Mayer has been off the tennis map this season, but Schuettler is struggling to win any matches at all, so Mayer has a real shot.

  Once the seeds start taking the court in round two, plenty of upsets are possible. If Monaco gets past Youzhny, he should be able to take out Acasuso. Fabio Fognini would have no business beating Soderling, but the third-seeded Swede could be mentally ready for a break from tennis. Chardy also has to be tired after his Stuttgart title and he could go up against veteran clay-court specialist Oscar Hernandez in his Hamburg opener.

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Robin Soderling, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Victor Hanescu, Juan Monaco, Jeremy Chardy
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Gilles Simon, Nikolay Davydenko, Marcel Granollers, Rainer Schuettler, Florian Mayer, Mikhail Youzhny, Steve Darcis
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Stanislas Wawrinka over Robin Soderling and David Ferrer over Nikolay Davydenko
  
  Final Prediction: Ferrer over Wawrinka

   

  Indianapolis Tennis Championships
  

  Where: Indianapolis, Indiana
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $450,000
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Dmitry Tursunov
  Defending Champion: Gilles Simon (not playing)

  Draw Analysis: Because it is worth only 250 points and because it is ongoing simultaneously with a more valuable tournament (Hamburg), Indianapolis will probably have the weakest field of any U.S. Open Series event. Andy Roddick recently pulled out due to his lingering hip injury and 2008 champion Simon opted to play in Hamburg rather than defend his title.

  That leaves last year's runner-up Dmitry Tursunov as the top seed in Indianapolis. The Russian could face American wild card Taylor Dent in a marquee round-two matchup. Another interesting potential second-round clash is Sam Querrey vs. Rajeev Ram, which would be a rematch of the Newport final. Ram upset Querrey to win the Newport title and is already through to the Indianapolis second round after defeating fellow wild card Devin Britton on Sunday.

  The top half of the Indianapolis draw appears to be the most difficult--at least potentially--with streak, talented players like Tursunov, Querrey, Ram, Dent, and Ernests Gulbis. In the bottom section of the field, a deep run by one or more of the unseeded threats looks like a strong possibility. If No. 2 seed Dudi Sela does not reach the final, surprise possibilities include Marcos Baghdatis, Robby Ginepri, John Isner, or Isner's first-round opponent Josselin Ouanna.

  First-Round Upset Alert: None of the eight seeded players in Indianapolis is particularly intimidating. In fact, most of the seeds aren't even used to being seeded! Being seeded at the ATP level is a rare occurrence for a number of the top eight players in Indianapolis, so it remains to be seen how they will handle the pressure of being a favorite. The result could be several first-round upsets.  

  One that should happen--but probably won't--is Gulbis over No. 7 seed Marc Gicquel. Gulbis obviously has a massive edge in talent, but he is almost unanimously considered by people in the tennis world to be the biggest underachiever on tour this season. Gicquel, 12 years older than Gulbis at 32, is also slumping during what is most likely one of his last seasons as a professional. If the young Latvian plays well, he will take care of Gicquel with little trouble. The problem is Gulbis has not played well--or won back-to-back matches--in exactly 12 months.

  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Dudi Sela, Rajeev Ram
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Igor Kunitsyn, Marc Gicquel, Michael Berrer, Arnaud Clement, Danai Udomchoke, Ernests Gulbis, Marcos Baghdatis, John Isner, Eduardo Schwank, Robby Ginepri, Vince Spadea
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Sam Querrey over Dmitry Tursunov and Dudi Sela over John Isner
  
  Final Prediction: Querrey over Sela
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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