Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Back to the clay before the U.S. Open Series

  2009-07-13 17:58:47
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  The French Open and Wimbledon are over, and the official buildup to the U.S. Open is one week away. In between, it’s back to clay and clay only. Although just two 250-point ATP events are taking place this week, a handful of big-name players are in action. Top 10 players headline each tournament (Gilles Simon at the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart and Fernando Verdasco at the Catella Swedish Open in Bastad), while French Open runner-up Robin Soderling looks to continue his recent surge in his native Sweden. It is by no means a huge week on the ATP World Tour, but the summer is about to heat up both literally and figuratively.
  
  
  

  Mercedes Cup

  Where: Stuttgart, Germany
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Gilles Simon
  Defending Champion: Juan Martin Del Potro (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: Given that it’s just a 250-point tournament, the Mercedes Cup has lured a solid crop of players into its field of 32 this week. 2008 champion Juan Martin Del Potro (who started his streak of four straight tournament titles in Stuttgart) is absent, but Top 10 player Gilles Simon is on hand as the No. 1 seed.
  
  Simon will be tested by contenders such as Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Albert Montanes, and Jose Acasuso. The Frenchman also has a tough opener on his hands against Philipp Petzschner, who will have the German crowd behind him. Petzschner, however, is a tougher opponent on faster surfaces.
  
  The entire top half of the draw is clearly stronger all-around, even beyond Simon and Petzschner. Mischa Zverev is a potentially dangerous second-round opponent for Simon, Acasuso is always a force on clay, Berdych is playing well and won a recent clay-court title, and Kohlschreiber is in outstanding form.
  
  Several intriguing first-round matchups are on tap in the bottom half of the draw. No. 7 seed Fabrice Santoro faces a tough clay-court test in Fabio Fognini, fellow veterans Paul-Henri Mathieu and Mikhail Youzhny will go head-to-head, and Janko Tipsarevic takes on clay-court specialist Oscar Hernandez. Montanes should be able to give any opponent in that section of the draw a free clay-court lesson, but Davydenko would not be a surprise finalist.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Fabio Fognini over (7) Fabrice Santoro. This is a possibility only because of the surface. Fognini does almost all of his damage on clay and Santoro has to make a difficult—and quick—transition from grass. After playing at Wimbledon, Santoro headed over to the U.S. to play in Newport, where he reached the semifinals. “The Magician” is in fine form and is probably too crafty for his younger opponent, but clay gives Fognini a chance.
  
  Also keep an eye on Jeremy Chardy vs. the eighth-seeded Acasuso, although clay should help the Argentine fend off that upset bid. With the German crowd behind him, Nicolas Kiefer should make things competitive against Berdych. Plus the third-seeded Czech can implode at any moment.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Philipp Kohlschreiber
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Rainer Schuettler, Michael Berrer
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Philipp Kohlschreiber over Jose Acasuso and Albert Montanes over Nikolay Davydenko
  
  Final Prediction: Kohlschreiber over Montanes
  
  
  

  Catella Swedish Open

  Where: Bastad, Sweden
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Fernando Verdasco
  Defending Champion: Tommy Robredo
  
  Draw Analysis: The top four seeds—Fernando Verdasco Robin Soderling, Tommy Robredo, and Jurgen Melzer--have byes straight to the second round since the draw size is 28 instead of 32. The top three, and especially the top two, should be heavily favored to take care of business and make it through to the weekend.
  
  Verdasco and Soderling are both in the midst of their best years on tour. The top-seeded Spaniard has been a force week in and week out, including a semifinal finish at the Australian Open. An in-form Soderling, of course, reached the French Open final and the fourth round of Wimbledon, losing to Roger Federer both times.
  
  While a Verdasco-Soderling final is a real possibility, Verdasco could run into serious trouble prior to that point. Robredo already owns multiple clay-court titles this season and he is on a collision course for an all-Spanish semifinal with Verdasco. Both Spaniards lost Davis Cup singles rubbers to Germany's Philipp Kohlschreiber over the weekend; Robredo in easy straight sets and Verdasco 8-6 in the fifth set.
  
  Another one of Spain's clay-court specialists also looms large in the draw. The streaky Nicolas Almagro is always a threat to win any tournament on clay, but also is no stranger to bowing out far too early in tournaments. Almagro could be one and done in Bastad mainly because he will be contesting the marquee matchup of the first round against Marat Safin. Safin is in dismal form in his final season on tour, but the mercurial Russian remains dangerous.
  
  In addition to Safin, unseeded threats who could wreak havoc on the Bastad draw are Julien Benneteau, wild card Grigor Dimitrov, and clay-court force Juan Monaco. An all-Argentine first-round clash pits Monaco against No. 8 seed Maximo Gonzalez. Should Monaco prevail, he could run into Verdasco in the quarterfinals. Benneteau is in a tough fourth quarter of the draw along with Safin, Almagro, and Soderling. Dimitrov has a good opportunity in a relatively weak third quarter of the draw, where the two seeds are Melzer and Florent Serra.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Juan Monaco over No. 8 seed Maximo Gonzalez would only be an upset according to seeds. Monaco is actually ranked 13 spots higher than Gonzalez at 61st in the world, but Gonzalez was ranked higher when the seeding for Bastad took place. Both players are stellar on clay and Gonzalez enjoyed a breakout performance at the French Open, but Monaco has been incredibly consistent on the slow stuff this season. Monaco should take this one.
  
  Don’t be surprised if Dimitrov scores a big win over Guillermo Canas. The 18-year-old wild card has displayed serious promise in his brief career and Canas is on the decline at No. 151 in the world. Canas should be feeling pretty good about himself after qualifying for the main draw, but Dimitrov could have too much talent for the grizzled veteran. Meanwhile, Safin has no business beating Almagro on clay given his current form, but you never know when he is suddenly going to catch fire.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Fernando Verdasco, Robin Soderling, Tommy Robredo, Juan Monaco
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Steve Darcis, Andreas Vinciguerra, Marat Safin, Guillermo Canas
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Fernando Verdasco over Tommy Robredo and Robin Soderling over Jurgen Melzer
  
  Final Prediction: Soderling over Verdasco
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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