Ricky Dimon

• French Open preview part 2: Top 25 contenders

  2009-05-21 22:04:04
  This is the second of Ricky's five-part French Open preview series, running through Sunday.
  
  Part 1: Nadal vs. Federer
  Part 2: Top 25 contenders at the 2009 French Open
  Part 3: Draw analysis
  Part 4: Weekly "Approach Shots"
  Part 5: Full tournament predictions
  
  It is generally accepted that no more than—and possibly less than—three players have a chance to win this year's French Open. As a result, "contenders" does not exactly mean "contenders for the title," but rather "contenders to be successful." Or, if you want to be more specific, consider it "contenders to reach the second week."
  
  25) Igor Andreev – Andreev is always a darkhorse at the French Open and normally he would be much higher on this list. Unfortunately, an abdominal strain forced him to retire from a match in Belgrade and kept him out of the Masters Series Madrid. Signs of recovery at this week's World Tennis Championships, however, at least keep him in the Top 25.
  
  24) Andy Roddick – It says less about Roddick and more about the lack of clay-court talent in the field that Roddick is on this list. He is 4-7 lifetime at the French Open and has made it past the second round just once (in his first appearance back in 2001). Still, a resurgent Roddick is 27-6 this season and could get a favorable draw as one of the top eight seeds.
  
  23) Mikhail Youzhny – Youzhny had been in dismal form for over a year…until this clay-court swing. He finished runner-up in Munich (and was a matter of points away from winning the title) and is currently in the Kitzbuhel semifinals.
  
  22) Philipp Kohlschreiber – Kohlschreiber owns a solid 15-9 match record and 2009 and he reached the third round in Madrid before withdrawing from a scheduled match against Rafael Nadal. The German cited a left leg injury, but he seems to be doing fine this week at the World Team Championships. Being seeded in Paris will help Kohlschreiber's chances of getting a good draw.
  
  21) Radek Stepanek – Stepanek has cooled off considerably since a blistering start to the season (on hard courts). He is not as good on clay, but is still capable of success on the slow stuff (see a win over Roger Federer last year in Rome). Stepanek will be seeded and he rarely gets upset, but once he runs into the better players on clay, it's probably lights out for the Czech.
  
  20) Albert Montanes – Montanes is the essence of a clay-court specialist. He is borderline terrible on any other surface, but he is absolutely dangerous on clay. The Spaniard recently won a title in Estoril, so he has to be feeling good about himself.
  
  19) Ivan Ljubicic – After a disappointing 2008 campaign, Ljubicic looks rejuvenated this season. He has already reached the quarterfinals of three Masters Series events, including two on clay. The only issue is that Ljubicic will be unseeded in Paris, so he is at the mercy of the draw.
  
  18) Nicolas Almagro – Ever since winning a clay-court title in Acapulco, Almagro has been in horrendous form. Still, he has been one of the best clay-courters around in recent years and that fact is too hard to discount going into Roland Garros. Because he will be seeded, a good draw should help the Spaniard get back on track.
  
  17) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Tsonga was on fire earlier in the year, but he has done nothing on clay. He never has, and maybe he never will. But in fairness to Tsonga, he is almost never healthy for the French Open. In fact, he has never won a match at the French; he is a mere 0-1 lifetime (2005 first-round loss to Andy Roddick). Tsonga is having some knee problems again, but he should be good to go. A miracle for the Frenchman is unlikely, but look for him to win at least a few matches.
  
  16) Tomas Berdych – Berdych has never been overly impressive on clay and he did very little at the recent Masters Series events, but he did win a title in Munich. That should give Berdych some confidence heading into the French Open, where he is just 5-5 lifetime. He did, however, go all the way to the fourth round in 2006. His talent alone could help him do the same this time around.
  
  15) Marin Cilic – Up to a career-high 13th in the world, Cilic has been decent on clay and awesome everywhere else. Clay is his worst surface, but for someone 6'6'', he moves well and has great groundstrokes. As a result, he should continue to be just fine on the slow stuff. A high seed will give him a decent chance of reaching the second week in Paris.
  
  14) Robin Söderling – Söderling has been solid against lower-ranked players, but it's clear he isn't ready to contend with the big boys (see recent blowout losses to Nadal and Federer). For the second straight year, however, Söderling is just destroying people at the World Tennis Championships. He will have plenty of confidence going into the French Open.
  
  13) Gilles Simon – By "old" Simon standards, he is having a solid 2009 campaign. By "new" Simon standards, he is in absolutely dismal form. He enjoyed a breakout season in 2008, but has not lived up to those expectations despite reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals. Still, the Frenchman should get a favorable draw as one of the top eight seeds.
  
  12) Nikolay Davydenko – Injuries aside, Davydenko would easily be in the Top 10 of this list. After missing almost the entire first three months of the season, Davydenko appeared to be over his foot problems until he pulled out of Madrid. Now the questions have resurfaced heading into Roland Garros. If he is healthy, a quarterfinal appearance should be expected. But that's a big "if."
  
  11) Juan Monaco – Monaco-mania was almost in full force…until he came crashing down to earth against Fernando Verdasco in Madrid. It looks like Monaco, a clay-court force, will be able to wreak havoc on players who aren't, say, in the Top 10. Against the world's best, however, it will probably be a different story. Being unseeded, Monaco needs a good draw in order to fulfill his potential.
  
  10) Tommy Robredo – The next three guys on this list are similar; you can almost guarantee what you are going to get from them. What you are going to get is a solid performance, but probably not a spectacular one. For example, Robredo won two clay-court titles earlier this year in tournaments in which the top players did not play, but he struggled—relatively speaking—at Masters Series events.
  
  9) Stanislas Wawrinka – Wawrinka pulled off a huge win over Roger Federer in Monte-Carlo on his way to the semifinals. That was nice, but it had more to do with Federer than it did with Wawrinka. He has been in solid form all season long, and while he should reach the second week in Paris, it's hard to argue that he is ready for a breakout at a slam…even one on clay.
  
  8) David Ferrer – Ferrer is a force on clay, but right now he looks like another player who will feast on lesser competition and succumb to the all of the players ranked head of him. He has had plenty of Grand Slam success in the pass (see 2007 U.S. Open), so a quarterfinal finish—possibly even semifinals if he is a quarter with, say, Murray and Simon—is not out of the question.
  
  7) Fernando Gonzalez – Gonzo might be even higher on this list if an ankle injury wasn't a minor concern. Fortunately it's just that: a very minor concern. It kept him out of Madrid, but that was probably a precautionary move as result of the Chilean having played so much tennis. He reached the semis in Barcelona and Rome and also won a clay-court title in Vina Del Mar earlier this season.
  
  6) Juan Martin Del Potro – Del Potro proved last year that he could consistently beat players whom he is expected to beat. This year he has shown that he can also beat the best (see wins over Nadal and Andy Murray). Still, two blowout losses to Federer are disconcerting (in Australia and Madrid). He looks like he is ready for another Grand Slam quarterfinal—or even semifinals—but a step beyond that seems elusive.
  
  5) Fernando Verdasco – A reinvented Verdasco has reached at least the quarterfinals of every single event he has entered this season. That streak should continue in Paris, and a semifinal is not out of the question as long as he can avoid Nadal in his quarter of the draw. That's something Verdasco has not been able to do in recent clay-court tournaments.
  
  4) Andy Murray – In a head-to-head matchup at the French Open with players 5-8 on this list, there would be a good chance of a Murray loss. But because he will be in a quarter of the draw separate from Nadal, Federer, and Djokovic, he has the edge to do probability of a favorable path to the semis. Even so, his clay-court game still needs to improve before he becomes a real contender.
  
  3) Novak Djokovic – In terms of contending for the title, Federer gets the edge over Djokovic. In teams of a head-to-head meeting, Djokovic would get the edge over Federer. After Djokovic, however, the drop-off to the fourth contender (Murray) is immense. Just take a look at the Serb's playing activity during this clay-court swing if you need to know anything else.
  
  2) Roger Federer – Without the benefit of looking at the draw, Federer—for now—gets the nod over Djokovic at No. 2 simply because he is assured of avoiding Nadal all the way until the final. If Federer had not come up with his first title of the year in Madrid, however, things would be different regardless of what kind of draw Federer gets.
  
  1) Rafael Nadal – Self-explanatory.

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