Ricky Dimon

• Approach shots: Nadal, Federer rest up for Paris

  2009-05-19 21:16:09
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Put one in the win column for tennis.
  
  This is not what Rafael Nadal fans want to hear, but Roger Federer's win last Sunday in the Madrid final is exactly what tennis wanted. The Federer-Nadal is in full force; it's now just 13-7 Nadal rather than 14-6. It's one straight for Federer instead of six in-a-row for Nadal.
  
  More than that, the hype for the French Open now must be at stratospheric proportions. If Nadal wins on Saturday, tennis fans far and wide go ahead and hand him his fifth consecutive Roland Garros title. Now, there is at least a shadow of a doubt in regards to the Paris outcome (well, there is certainly no doubt in my mind, but there's enough doubt everywhere else for the hype to reach Wimbledon 2008 levels).
  
  Heck, people are so immersed in Nadal and Federer right now that I wouldn't be surprised if more fans pay attention this week to the Guinot-Mary Cohr exhibition in Paris than they pay to the ATP event in Kitzbuhel and the World Team Championships in Dusseldorf.
  
  Yes, both Nadal and Federer (and Andy Murray) are participating in the exhibition. Of course, in actuality it will be little more than rest for the top players in the world. But with all due respect to the two tournaments this week, Nadal and Federer simply breathing might be more interesting than whatever happens in Kitzbuhel and Dusseldorf.
  
  Nonetheless, while the buildup to the French Open is on full blast, tennis continues.
  
  
  

  Austrian Open

  Where: Kitzbuhel, Austria
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko (has since withdrawn; No. 2 seed is Jurgen Melzer)
  Defending Champion: Nikolay Davydenko (unable to defend)
  
  Draw Analysis: Nikolay Davydenko would have been the clear favorite if he had been able to play, but he pulled out of the Masters Series Madrid prior to a third-round match against Andy Roddick, so it's no surprise that he did the same in Kitzbuhel. For some reason, however, Davydenko withdrew too late to allow a replacement to gain direct entry into the main draw; also too late for the seeds to be rearranged. Instead, his spot had to be filled with a lucky loser and now there are just seven seeded players, with Jurgen Melzer the top seed at No. 2.
  
  Another result of Davydenko's departure, of course, is that the tournament is now completely wide open. Literally all 32 players have—or, in some cases at this point, "had"— a chance to take the title.
  
  Paul Capdeville, a recent semifinalist in Estoril, snatched Davdenko's spot at the top of the draw as a lucky loser. Remember the last time a lucky loser went all the way to the final? You probably do, because it happened two weeks ago in Belgrade (Lukasz Kubot). A Capdeville run to the Kitzbuhel title match would be far less surprising; the only three seeds in the top half of the draw are Fabrice Santoro, Marc Gicquel, and Dudi Sela. Even Mario Ancic, who has not played since Indian Wells due to an illness and is not exactly fond of clay courts, has just as good a chance as anyone to reach the final out of the top half.
  
  The bottom half of the draw is home to more of the same. Seeds in that section are Melzer, Victor Hanescu, Martin Vassallo Arguello, and Mikhail Youzhny; far more imposing than the other half, but still less than daunting. An unseeded threat to watch at the bottom of the draw is clay-court specialist Frederico Gil, but Gil has to go up against Melzer in the opening round.
  
  As they say, it's anyone's ballgame.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Looking at the draw right when it came out, I thought all seven seeds (not counting Davydenko) were in legitimate danger of going out in the first round. Three, however, are already safely into round two. Youzhny beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver, Hanescu survived Nicolas Lapentti, and Vassallo Arguello dispatched Christophe Rochus. Lapentti over Hanescu would have been the most obvious choice for an upset among that trio of matches, and—not surprisingly—it turned out to be the most competitive. Hanescu knocked out the qualifier 6-7(6), 6-3, 7-5.
  
  Four seeds are left to play their opening matches. Sela could easily go down to lucky loser Julien Benneteau, Santoro has to go up against clay-court guru Oscar Hernandez, and Gicquel will have his hands full with Juan Ignacio Chela, who is armed with confidence having already come through qualifying. If you can only pick just one of those, look for Chela to oust Gicquel. But don't be surprised if Hernandez wins the battle of the old guys.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): None
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Thomaz Bellucci, Robin Vik, Mario Ancic, Juan Ignacio Chela, Marcel Granollers, Stefan Koubek, Philipp Petzschner, Agustin Calleri
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Paul Capdeville over Oscar Hernandez and Mikhail Youzhny over Christophe Rochus
  
  Final Prediction: Youzhny over Capdeville
  
  
  

  World Team Championships

  Where: Dusseldorf, Germany
  Surface: Clay
  Defending Champion: Sweden
  
  Draw Analysis and Format: Eight countries are divided into two groups of four for round-robin play. Each team plays the three other teams in its group, with the winner advancing to Saturday's championship. The matches are best two out of three, with two singles clashes followed by a doubles contest. At the end of round-robin play, the countries with the best record in their respective group after three matches moves on to the final. If there is a tie in overall match record, the first tiebreaker is individual matches (for example, winning 3-0 is more advantageous than winning 2-1), followed by number of sets won.
  
  Red Group: France, Germany, United States, Sweden
  
  Blue Group: Argentina, Italy, Serbia, Russia
  
  France: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Jeremy Chardy
  Germany: Philipp Kohlschreiber, Rainer Schuettler, Mischa Zverev
  United States: Sam Querrey, Robby Ginepri, Mardy Fish
  Sweden: Robin Söderling, Andreas Vinciguerra, Robert Lindstedt
  
  Argentina: Juan Martin Del Potro, Juan Monaco, Maximo Gonzalez
  Italy: Simone Bolelli, Andreas Seppi
  Serbia: Viktor Troicki, Janko Tipsarevic, Nenad Zimonjic
  Russia: Igor Andreev, Evgeny Korolev, Stanislav Vovk
  
  France has an apparent advantage with by far the highest combined ranking of its top two players. Argentina, however, has the edge in terms of its top two players current form and clay-court prowess. Sweden has confidence as the defending champion; and it also has 2008 WTC hero Robin Söderling. Germany has home-court advantage. Serbia has the best doubles player (Zimonjic) to go along with two formidable singles players. This championship is up for grabs, but in the end, the talent of Argentina and France could be too much.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Juan Martin Del Potro, Juan Monaco
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Gilles Simon, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Rainer Schuettler, Robby Ginepri, Andreas Vinciguerra, Igor Andreev
  
  Final Prediction: Argentina over France
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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