Very nice analysis Ricky.

But among the top 4, the road to the quarters seems toughest for Federer (and easiest for Murray). Karlovic is never good news draw as a first round. Federer lost to him last year. Stepanek and Lopez have been playing well. I'm betting Ferrer will upset Simon on clay too. So Federer will have to play the runner up from Barcelona, who is very hot.

I think Nadal and Murray are tied for the easiest. Verdasco is playing well, but not outstanding. Nadal's first two matches will be so easy that he will have more than enough left for Verdasco.

I also think Djokovic's road is as hard as Federer's. Federer will have the toughest quarterfinal match of anyone assuming Ferrer makes it that far, but his early rounds should be easier.

And Ferrer over Simon is not an "upset" on ANY surface!!!!!!!

ricky.......fed-nadal final is wat im praying for.........but rafa-nole final can be on too......wat say???nole is playing gr8 right now.....cant he upset fed at the semi's

is it true that irrespective of how Murray does in Rome, he will be #3 if Nole does not defend?

As much as I would love to see a Roger-Rafa final, I think it will be a Rafa-Nole repeat. Novak is playing great clay-court tennis right now. The difference is that this time Rafa will be even more crushing in all his victories, as he is improving steadily looking toward RR. Plus he wants to do his best here to make up for the blisters fiasco last year (not that it was his fault, but he hates being forced to retire).

That whole bottom half of the draw should be awesome. I can see both Djoker and Federer losing before the semifinals, but I couldn't predict it. Too many flaws with the other contenders. I think the best chance is Ferrer beating Federer, but he will probably have a grueling match with Simon one round earlier.

I don't think Fed has been too motivated recently, but I think he will if it turns out to be Fed-Djoker in the semis.

stu - not sure about the rankings situation, but I doubt that can be true. If Djoker defends and Murray loses his opening match, how could Murray gain?

Novak Djokovic - 9160
Off -90 (2009 Sydney)
On - ? (2009 Rome)

Andy Murray - 9050
Off - 250 (2009 Doha)
On - ? (2009 Rome)

When the Rome 2008 points come off, Djokovic loses 1000. Murray loses 70.

Taking into account Novak playing Belgrade (up to 250 points) next week and Andy not competing, and the Rome 2008 points coming off in a couple of weeks:

Novak 9160 - 90 - 1000 = 8070 + Rome 2009 + Belgrade
Andy 9050 - 250 - 70 = 8730 + Rome 2009

The following week, when the Hamburg 2008 points come off, Novak loses 450 points to Andy's 300. In Paris Novak sheds 900 points from last year, Andy 150.

So Novak needs to pick up about 1800 more points than Andy through the end of the clay season (Rome, Belgrade, Madrid and RG) to remain at number 3.

what do 2009 Sydney and 2009 Doha have to do with anything?

You're right, Ricky.

And I just happily copied those numbers :-)

This means Novak has an even great difference in points to defend.

I know Ferrer has been playing good as of late, and I like him as a player but somehow I just don't see him beating Fed. I think fed is going to come into Rome raring to go. Wedding is over and done with, he says his back is great and he has been practicing harder than before. I would like to see Feli Lopez do well. I am just going to take it all one match at a time because anything can happen!

I am an avid Nadal fan.....but I am not happy about the way you guys are tearing up Fed.......Federer's game has slumped but at i still believe that he can at least reach the semis.....regardless of what happened last year!! Guys.....come on!!!....Federer may be sleeping......hes not dead!!!!!

Ricky: I agree it's not an true upset, just a reverse of the rankings.

But to pick an argument, by the same token, why do you say the Gonzo d. Verdasco last week was an upset? Current ATP standings: Simon is higher ranked than Verdasco, and Gonzo is higher than Ferrer. So that, technically, Ferrer beating Simon is a greater upset (by a small margin).

Nadal wins for sure..and good for him.Man,is the sublime on clay.

Rafa's early exit last year in Rome was unexpected but his below-par performance was totally understandable when the camera zoomed in and we saw the state of his feet . The mystery was how he managed to get into his shoes in the first place, let alone cope with the punishing footwork of clay for two sets. Any other player would have thrown in the towel a long time before.

Come to think of it Roger also played well below his best before losing in two tie breaks to Stepanek. To put that in perspective - in the next round Stepanek was bagelled by Djokovic in the first set before retiring at 0-1 with wrist and heat problems.

fan4tennis - I completely agree. Common sense would say that Ferrer has a GREAT chance of beating Federer due to both current form and surface.

But, while Ferrer is one of the biggest fighters on tour, it seems like comes up with a lot of huge victories, but not necessarily over the VERY top players. Yes he beat Nadal at the U.S. Open and Djokovic in Davis Cup. But Nadal has never been overwhelming at the Open and beating Djokovic on clay with a home-court advantage in Spain is far from a surprise.

I am a huge Ferrer, but I don't see him upsetting Federer either.

I don't know if I see Federer in the semis if he plays as he has been. He claims to be feeling "good" about is "forehand". It was one of the best in tennis....ever, but it was awful to see the lack of confidence in his ground strokes and I don't know if he is a good judge of himself anymore. I'd believe him, if he had a new coach to back that up.

chlorostoma, 4/27/09 7:04 PM
You are clearly a whizz kid with the rankings system. I have a question for you.

Has there ever been a time before when the same three players have between them held the top 3 spots for so many consecutivel years? Or, in the case of the top 4, for so many weeks consecutively?

We seem to be in the throes of one of the most all-time competitive periods of tennis ever, with the same names jostling in and out of the top 10 for an unprecedented length of time.

No wonder it is becoming harder and harder to predict results with any degree of certainty.

Good draw analysis Ricky. I agree with all your picks. I think the Murray Nadal match will be very tight. And Djokovic should be able to beat Federer if he plays and behaves well.

What are your thoughts on Madrid? If Nadal plays there, do you think 1 week will be enough for him to recover? I think that it might not matter in French Open, but too much tennis might endanger his Wimbledon/Queens prospects. I think skipping Madrid makes sense ( probably won't happen though).

ed,
there is a lot that is true about what you wrote on the current competitiveness.

I can't answer your question about the past because I've been following tennis for only four years - but I'm sure someone else can.

(and I'm no whizz kid :-) I just looked up numbers on the atptennis site and added and subtracted them)

Fed still has the fire, MonaLisa, so no worries. You are a good person to defend him. Thank you for that.

I agree with Ricky - for some reason, I think Fed will take Ferrer. I'm a Ferrer fan, but Fed trumps Ferrer for me.

About a coach for Fed. Any ideas? Anybody? He's beefing up his physical training, but that will not cut it with the competition in the men's game.

Fish just beat Andreev on clay. How on earth did that happen? :|

How on earth did Gulbis beat Almagro? This tournament could end up being as crazy as Monte-Carlo.

no way! Fish beats Andreev!!! ha ha..crazy! Came here to check the results and was thunderstruck..lol.

Nadal over Seppi in 2
Soderling over Crivoi in 2
Verdasco over Fish in 2
Murray over Monaco in 3
Cilic over Rochus in 2
Gonzo over Tipsy in 2
Davydenko over Melzer in 2
Del Potro over Troicki in 2
Wawrinka over Youzhny in 2
Roberdo over Kohlschreiber in 3
Djokovic over Montanes in 2
Simon over Fognini in 3
Federer over Karlovic in 2

You see Fognini taking Simon to three sets?

fognini gave murray a hard time at monte carlo,so he can push simon to three for sure in my opinion

Velly intellesting!! Andreev out! Murray out! Ferrer out! How many upsets will there be? Is something in the Roman air?

Fognini is good on clay. He made an amazing comeback to win the first-set 'breaker, but Simon as usual was too much of a fighter.

Round 3 picks:
Nadal over Soderling in 2
Verdasco over Gasquet in 2
Monaco over Cilic in 3
Gonzalez over Melzer in 2
Wawrinka over Del Potro in 3
Djokovic over Robredo in 3
Simon over Mathieu in 2
Federer over Stepanek in 2

Quarters through champion:

Nadal over Verdasco in 2
Gonzo over Monaco in 3
Djoker over Delpo in 2
Federer over Zverev in 2

Nadal over Gonzo in 2
Federer over Djoker in 3

Nadal over Federer in 2

Novak has been in superb form.I'm surprised you didnt pick him for the finals.

Monaco is appeared to be the darkhorse, so I am picking him over Gonzales in 3.

My SFlists are:

Nadal vs. Monaco
Federer vs. Djokovic

Finalists: Nadal vs. Djokovic

Winner: Nadal

my picks are xactly the same as that of ricky...!! rafa over gonz in 2..fed over djo in 3..nadal in 2 over fed

perfect so far

and I feel good about Monaco getting a set off Gonzo.

See?!!!!!........Fed made the semis.......now its very interesting to see how he plays Nole.....

Im just glad Rafa is in the semis!!!.....hope he wins!!

Got all 4 semi-finalists right so far. Lets see if nole can prove me right too. Ricky will you still keep the prediction game?

yeah I am toasted for picking Monaco. He didn't sustain his good game at the first set.

What I found impressive was to see how easily Nadal won at Montecarlo and Barcelona... when his tennis was still miles away from his best level on clay... Looked like Nadal beat his opponents twice... one on court and another before they had even got into court

HEY RICKY..............guess wat.....rafa did manage to win 3 in 3 weeks...lol.........vaamos rafaaaaa!!!!!!11

Next Sunday will be weird for Rafa with no new silverware to add to his growing collection!
Can't wait to find out whether Nole will disappoint in Belgrade, a tourny that is his to win or lose. Though he desperately needs that to keep his ranking, I think we will crown our real #2 and #3s after Madrid (RF, AM losing points, ND with not too many to lose). Just in time to shuffle the draw for the FO! These are exciting times for tennis!

But it will be ok Stu......Rafa really needs to sleep!!!!!

i hope nole's back at number three or gets up to number 2......coz he definetely is playing like no 2 right now....

Stu, Murray won't lose that many points after Madrid since it's the Hamburg points that will come off after it?

Can someone clarify please, is Murray defending Madrid, disaster(!!) or what? Change of surface etc seems harsh if so.

deuce:

Everyone's Madrid points won't come off their ranking until Oct. 19 of this year. So they'll have 2 sets of Madrid points for some time. It's like what happened in Monte Carlo this year....for that one week, people had 2 sets of Monte Carlo points: 2008 & 2009. Because of all the calendar changes between this year and last, the drop date for points aren't always lining up. Kinda confusing, but just check the ATP site whenever you want to see when points are dropped.

Murray's ranking breakdown:
http://www.atpworldtour.com/tennis/3/en/players/playerprof iles/pointsbreakdown.asp?player=MC10

gretchen: thanks so much, not quite as dire as I thought! Thought Andy would go up to 3 then swiftly drop back because obviously he's not going to win Madrid.

Please see article on perpective of Rafa's game.....very interesting read!!!

http://tennisworld.typepad.com/thewrap/2009/05/the-rafa-rul es.html