2009-03-11 10:32:48
Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
After a week of Davis Cup action, the ATP is back with a vengeance in the form of the first huge tournament since the Australian Open. It’s time for the Masters Series Indian Wells, and that means it’s also time for the return of Roger Federer. The No. 2 player in the world has not taken the court since falling to Rafael Nadal in the Melbourne final, having pulled out of both Dubai and Davis Cup as a precautionary measure for his back.
Speaking of Nadal, he too is returning to ATP play this week after a brief layoff. The Spaniard aggravated a knee injury during his loss to Andy Murray in the Rotterdam title match, but he came back last weekend to win two singles rubber in Spain’s Davis Cup victory over Serbia.
Federer and Nadal, of course, aren’t the only headline-makers in Indian Wells. Fernando Verdasco, who reached the Australian Open semifinals, is playing for the first time since his remarkable run Down Under. Every one of the top 17 players in the world is set to go for the BNP Paribas Open (the first one out is Nicolas Almagro), and 39 of the top 40 (the next one out is No. 41 Carlos Moya) are in the draw. The result should be a thrilling 11 days of tennis at the first Masters Series event of 2009.
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Very appropriate not to put Roger Federer in either of those lists, momentum builders or slump busters.
I hope Roger takes this tournament. It will make the outlook for the rest of the year more interesting.
fuzz , 3/11/09 1:07 PM
Its anytime Roger for me !!!!!!!!!! But , If He is not then it should be (imo) Verdasco or Tsonga.Would love to see them winning at IW if not Roger !!!!!!!!!!!
I hope Ricky,ur prediction comes true i.e Roger Vs Roddick (Final).
tomnjerry2 , 3/11/09 2:25 PM
In 05,07 Roddick lost in the semis in AO and Indian Wells. He will loss in the semis again this year to Nadal just like in 07 i think.
Shockwaves , 3/11/09 3:51 PM
Ricky- Would you consider adding a section for which players you think might make a deep surprise run? Predictions usually involve favourites coming on top, it would be fun to read about which relatively lower ranked players might spoil the party.
orion , 3/11/09 4:06 PM
onion - good idea. I will add that for Miami in 2 weeks.
I'll add it here via the comments section (once I take another look at the draw).
RickyDimon , 3/11/09 4:49 PM
andy roddick over nadal..no way!!! djokovic can overcome rafa..altho djo's chances of advancing into semis are slim...rodik cant beat nadal here..i dont think so...plenty of reasons!! fed emerging as the top player in the 2nd section is a gud option...unless murray moves into the semis.....
Nadal over roddick Federer over Tsonga
Nadal vs Federer.........dont know!!! lol...
Nice analysis Ricky....i only one prediction i disagree wid...rodik over nadal...
vamosrafa , 3/11/09 5:05 PM
There are plenty of reasons why Nadal can beat Roddick, yes, but there are plenty of reasons why Roddick can beat Nadal. I know it's a slow hard court, but it's a hard court nonetheless. That will always give Roddick a chance. Plus Roddick is just in awesome form right now. Nadal is too, but not (relatively to their respective talent) as much as Roddick.
RickyDimon , 3/11/09 5:41 PM
Potential Indian Wells surprises:
Marin Cilic (in the semifinals) - He is playing great and nobody in his quarter is unbeatable with Murray not 100 percent.
Ernests Gulbis (in the third round) - That's not far, but considering he has not won two matches in a row yet this entire season, winning two straight in IW would be a surprise. I am guessing he will lose first round, but with a qualifier followed by Andreev, he has every reason to win two matches IF he plays decent.
Kohlschreiber or Benneteau (fourth round or even quarters) - Whoever wins that first-round match COULD have an easy draw with both Davydenko and Soderling dealing with injuries. And if Verdasco is rusty due to time off, fourth round could become quarters for the Kohli-Benny winner.
Lleyton Hewitt (fourth round) - He is not in great form, but if he beats Hernych, he will be itching for revenge on Gonzo in round 2. Hewitt would then get Blake, whom he OWNS. So a fourth round is very possible.
Sam Querrey (quarterfinals) - He will probably lose to Stepanek in round two (bad draw!) but if he pulls off the upset, the draw will open up for him.
Taylor Dent (third round) - Third round isn't much, but it's a lot for someone who was previously retired from tennis. Dent's first two rounds look very winnable, so he could do it if he serves well (then would lose to Del Potro in round three).
RickyDimon , 3/11/09 5:49 PM
^^ Thanks for adding that section here Ricky.That was indeed a very good idea.
Btw-Whats the head to head between Querrey and Stepanek?
janhavi , 3/11/09 6:02 PM
Sam and Steppa have never played before. Should be interesting. Querrey needs to get past Canas first. For some reason the tournament director is so excited about that match, but I'm expecting it to be extremely routine for Sam.
RickyDimon , 3/11/09 6:19 PM
im never reading ur blog again before making my atp picks! u influenced me way 2 much that time!!! do u do the picks this on the atp website?? i ended up with going roger over roddick just like u said, complete accident. mental.
kaitepai , 3/11/09 9:35 PM
I think Novak Djokovic will slip out of the top ten at this rate. Ricky isn't giving him a chance.
samprallica , 3/11/09 10:03 PM
Oh my God! You are predicting Rodick in the finals! Wow! Your predictions are couragious! I hope you are not using money and betting, because choosing Rodick over Nadal in the finals is just "challenging".
arailic , 3/11/09 10:46 PM
I did NOT predict that Mirka was pregnant, however.
RickyDimon , 3/13/09 7:15 AM
^ ROFL!!
janhavi , 3/13/09 7:59 AM
Ricky,
Thanks for the IW preview. However, those are very risky predictions. I don't see any way that Tsongs can best Murray. Furthermore it is very unlikely that Roddick will beat Nadal.
It's pretty safe to assume that 3 of the Semi Finalists would be: Murray, Federer and Nadal. The 4th one is tricky and could be either Nole or Andy Roddick. I expect Rafa and Murray to make it to the final. Federer does have a chance though if he plays his A+ game against Andy Murray.
I also feel that it's worth keeping Fernando Verdasco in mind. I am extremely excited about Verdasco vs Federer. Let's see who comes up on top on that matchup. Anyone who ignores Verdasco, after his awesome display at the Oz Open, does so at his own peril.
imjimmy , 3/13/09 8:07 AM
I dont rate Andy over Rafa either.Rafa's stronger in almost all areas and the rate at which he's going,it'll take one hell of an effort or even more than that, regardless of the surface.
janhavi , 3/13/09 8:30 AM
imjimmy - I have Verdasco in the quarterfinals, I simply start my predictions in this blog at the semifinals.
I also see an overwhelmling number of ways in which Tsonga can beat Murray.
RickyDimon , 3/13/09 1:26 PM
How do you think Isner will do now he's managed to upset Monfils?
faem , 3/16/09 6:13 AM
Ricky..u got 3/4 rite...nadal vs roddick is here.whts ur pick now??still wid rodik? m gona say nadal in 2...i hope rodick doesnt have a great serving day...fed-murray..nt sure!
vamosrafa , 3/21/09 2:02 AM
Woo Hoo - Andy serve 81% first serves vs Djoko - that's incredible!!! Rafa on the other hand served below 50% & had 27 UE's vs 25 winners. It's very possible that Andy can beat Rafa considering those stats. I hope the final is Roddick vs Murray - am getting tired of the same names in the finals. Share the love. GO ANDY!!!
tenisbebe , 3/21/09 5:33 AM
I will stick with Roddick just because I had him at the start of the tournament. If I was forced to put money on the match I would go with Nadal. But an upset is certainly possible if Roddick serves like he did against Djoker.
RickyDimon , 3/21/09 6:29 AM
Before the tournament,I didn't agree with you Ricky about Roddick and Nadal but now,based on what I've seen from yesterday's matches,Andy may well make an upset.Rafa isn't playing anywhere near his best and Andy was solid from the baseline and just kept the ball in play.He has a great chance against Rafa tonight (it will be night time for where I am).
sisterofnight12 , 3/21/09 9:42 AM
is gonna be a tough match between rafa and andy,but since some time ago,rafa is getting better in not wasting too much energy and forces in matches in which he doesnt need to be at 100%. i think yesterday´s match against del potro was an example of this. ( despite rafa was too relax at the end). i hope rafa finds his best tennis against roddick, as he use to do in this kind of tournaments, and mainly in the final i guess against andy murray, cos i dont think roger still has the level he had one-two years ago...
guybrush6 , 3/21/09 1:08 PM
ok ricky thanx for ur reply...what abt ur prdiction abt murray-federer??? iam gona go wid murray ...not confident on my pick tho...
vamosrafa , 3/21/09 5:07 PM
Fed
but also not confident AT ALL about it
RickyDimon , 3/21/09 6:04 PM
Okay, anytime favorite cable sports network. Get the gymnastics off and let's go to the Indian Wells men's semi-finals. I want to be dazzled! And here we go! Murray and the Fed are 'bout to collide! Oh no that big mug Gimelstob is calling the game, ugh. Where's the mute button fast! There is the Suisse Champ, looking calm cool and fashion forward. Muzza is not smiling, it's a seriously focused game face today. He's in tip top shape, me thinks, that Muzza.
zoey234 , 3/21/09 9:04 PM
First set goes to Muzza but this is not over. Federer is missing too many lines and biffing into net. I doubt I will ever get used to watching the former #1 biff so many backhands into net and misfire his forehand. But 2nd set gives the Swiss a breakpoint which Muzza denies with a brilliant passing shot. But just as I glance away for a drink, the Fed breaks in 2nd set
zoey234 , 3/21/09 9:49 PM
Checking first serve percentages quickly and Muzza is at 59% whilst Federer is at 60%. Every other stat favors Muzza handily. I don't like watching Fed lose but its a tolerable pain matched against Murray. Wow, another realy bad challenge by the Swiss.
zoey234 , 3/21/09 9:57 PM
2-2 in the 2nd set and Muzza appears stellar. Rafa-Roddick up next and I feel very confident about calling the winner. Rafa in 2 sets unless A-Rod can gets serve outta his mind.
zoey234 , 3/21/09 10:04 PM
Papa fed cannot win today against Murray unless he steps in early and this time I agree with the Gimelstob, embarrassed to admit.
zoey234 , 3/21/09 10:13 PM
Moment of truth coming up. Will federer hold serve for a 3rd set chance at the Final here? Much is riding here on the Federer serve and its a 5rd set for our pleasure courtesy of a beauty Federer passing shot!
zoey234 , 3/21/09 10:26 PM
oops sorry I meant 3rd set and I am wishing this could be a 5 setter
zoey234 , 3/21/09 10:29 PM
Muzza wins and could be the 1st Brit to post a win in this event in how long? Henman came close but could not manage. I recall it was a Swiss in his prime that made winning tournaments look as easy in 2004 as a Spaniard does now. C'mon Muzza
zoey234 , 3/21/09 11:15 PM
Tee hee....Rafa makes me giggle. He is fabulously unaware of anything but going for every point like it was his last. And in the last match one could hear the occaisional ninja-like gasp from Muzza, silence from the Swiss but Rafa grunts with distinction with each spanking stroke. Rafa will be looking like my hound after a swim in the lake, shaking his drenched hair. Oh, Rafa uncharacteristing missing a point or two. Rafa will not lose, I say with all the confidence I used to have when Roger was #1. A-Rod already struggling in the 2nd game, 1st set. I feel for Roddick after all those years losing to Federer and now facing Nadal at the top.
zoey234 , 3/21/09 11:37 PM
See ricky..i told ya nadal wid never lose to roddick ..lol....even tho far from his best nadal wrapped it up in 2...the BEST ON THE PLANET!!! i also got murray pick right..nadl vs murray..eemmmm...rafa to prevail here in tough 3 sets..he is fit this time around unlike rotterdam ad the court is slower....bt it shud be a fascinating encounter!!!i hope nadal cuts down the amount of unusual errors he has been making!
vamosrafa , 3/22/09 1:29 AM
Vamosrafa, I am so confident that Rafa wins tomorrow that I am willing to bet on it and rarely do that. This is Rafa's year to shine. I may not be as big a fan of Rafa's as I am of Federer's but I am close for entirely different reasons. I realise how unique both are as characters. I could not get overly excited about much of the tennis in the 90's, then came Federer. Irrational, maybe. Sampras made me proud and Agassi but I am a stylist. It took the Swiss to hook me. No accounting for taste, as they say. The only consolation I have while Federer hits a plateau is that I still love tennis, Rafa and the talent in mens tennis right now. Womens tennis is another story, not mentioning.
zoey234 , 3/22/09 2:01 AM
If Rafa plays today like he did yesterday against Roddick,then there could be only one winner and that wouldn't be Rafa.He was terrible (according to his standards,especially when he was serving for the match) and lately,he's been doing too many unforced errors.
The only good analysis we can draw is that Rafa is really on another level now than the previous year.Last year,he was getting hammered by Djokovic and Tsonga when he wasn't playing his best.Now,even in hard court (supposed to be his least favorite),he's been through to finals even playing his 50%.I think that's the most frustrating thing for his opponents.
sisterofnight12 , 3/22/09 11:35 AM
imjimmy, I was so impressed that you guessed them (the 4 semifinalists) perfectly right. Im happy though Nadal won, Murray as such a gracious player in defeat, both have so much respect for each other.
reytol , 3/23/09 9:20 AM
yepppi!!! raafaaa the besssst!!!!i got many gueses rit..murya over fed..nad over rodik and nadal over murray!!! yeahhhh!!!
vamosrafa , 3/23/09 12:28 PM
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
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Sat 21/04 19:01
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Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
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Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
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Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
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I thought Nadal would be your favourite considering he's totally on a roll.
janhavi , 3/11/09 10:53 AM