Ricky Dimon

• Approach shots: Federer out, Nadal in

  2009-03-05 18:20:54
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Rarely is Roger Federer the one sidelined with an injury while Rafael Nadal is the one going full steam ahead on the court. But that will be the case during this weekend’s opening round of the 2009 Davis Cup. Federer’s absence forces Switzerland into a monumental underdog role on the road against the United States, while Nadal makes host Spain a huge favorite against Novak Djokovic and Serbia.
  
  Nadal and Djokovic, however, aren’t the only stories this weekend. All eight opening-round ties in the World Group will be taking place simultaneously, and the best of all could be France at the Czech Republic. Israel vs. Sweden will also be stealing headlines, albeit for off-the-court news. All in all, it should be a wild three days of tennis, paving the way for back-to-back Masters Series events in Indian Wells and Miami later this month.
  
  
  

  Switzerland vs. United States

  Where: Birmingham, Alabama (USA)
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Switzerland: Stanislas Wawrinka, Marco Chiudinelli, Stephane Bohli, Yves Allegro
  United States: Andy Roddick, James Blake, Bob Bryan, Mike Bryan
  
  This first-round tie lost plenty of luster when Roger Federer pulled out of both Dubai and Davis Cup as a precautionary measure for his troubled back. Switzerland would have presented a massive challenge for the host United States with Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka playing singles and the gold medal-winning doubles duo of Federer and Wawrinka teaming up for Saturday’s rubber. Now, of course, the complexion of the tie has changed drastically and it will take a monumental upset for Switzerland to advance. With Wawrinka slumping, the United States will be favored in both singles rubbers on Friday and the Bryan Brothers have every reason to prevail in doubles.
  
  Prediction: United States 3, Switzerland 0 (last two rubbers dead)
  
  ***note: Davis Cup ties are best three out of five matches (called "rubbers") with two singles matches on both Friday and Sunday and a doubles rubber on Saturday. When a team wins three matches (earns three "points"), the tie is clinched and any remaining rubbers are referred to as "dead" rubbers. Prior to a team winning three points, all rubbers are "live." All live rubbers are three out of five sets; dead singles rubbers are two out of three. ***
  
  
  

  Serbia vs. Spain

  Where: Benidorm, Spain
  Surface: Clay
  Serbia: Novak Djokovic, Janko Tipsarevic, Viktor Troicki, Nenad Zimonjic
  Spain: Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, Feliciano Lopez
  
  This is a perfect example of how important home-court advantage is in Davis Cup. The host nation, of course, chooses the surface, and Spain is obviously holding this tie on clay. On hard courts, Serbia vs. Spain looks almost like an even matchup (perhaps slightly in Spain’s favor). Clay, however, is a whole different story. If Serbia goes into Spain and beats the defending Davis Cup champions on the slow stuff, it will be an absolute shocker. For the Serbs to have any real chance, at least two of these three (and possibly all three) things have to happen: Nadal’s knee injury flares up, Djokovic is simply on fire the entire weekend, and David Ferrer reverts back to his dismal late-2008 form.
  
  With Djokovic playing Ferrer (instead of Nadal) on Friday, Serbia might be able to win a point either in that rubber or in doubles. Anything more, however, would be a surprise.
  
  Prediction: Spain 3, Serbia 1 (fifth rubber dead)
  
  
  

  France vs. Czech Republic

  Where: Ostrava, Czech Republic
  Surface: Indoor Carpet
  France: Gilles Simon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Michael Llodra
  Czech Republic: Radek Stepanek, Tomas Berdych, Jan Hernych, Lukas Dlouhy
  
  This tie looks like an absolute blockbuster. Two players (Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Radek Stepanek) have already won multiple ATP titles in 2009. Another player (Gilles Simon) is in the Top 10. Another (Tomas Berdych) led Federer two sets to love at the Australian Open. Furthermore, while France is arguably the deepest—and best—country when it comes to men’s tennis, home-court advantage could even things up for the Czechs. And right now it looks like there’s no stopping Stepanek. He prevailed in both Brisbane and Memphis and also reached the final in San Jose. Tsonga took home trophies in Johannesburg and Marseille and made it to the quarterfinals of the Australian Open before running into an on-fire Fernando Verdasco. The second singles rubber on Friday between Stepanek and Tsonga—not to mention the entire weekend—should be scintillating. If the tie comes down to a fifth rubber between Tsonga and Berdych, you have to think Tsonga’s mental strength will be the difference.
  
  Prediction: France 3, Czech Republic 2 (all rubbers live)
  
  
  

  Israel vs. Sweden

  Where: Malmö, Sweden
  Surface: Indoor Carpet
  Israel: Dudi Sela, Harel Levy, Andy Ram, Amir Hadad
  Sweden: Thomas Johansson, Andreas Vinciguerra, Robert Lindstedt, Simon Aspelin
  
  The big news of course, is that the tie will be played behind closed doors. Only sponsors, media, player guests, and members of certain tennis federations will be allowed into the Baltic Hall in Malmö, Sweden. "This is a very sad decision and a bad decision by the city," declared Israeli doubles specialist Andy Ram, who was granted a visa into last week’s ATP event in Dubai after Shahar Peer was denied entry into the women’s tournament.
  
  As for the on-court aspect of the tie, an injury-plagued Swedish team is faced with its lowest combined singles ranking among four players in Sweden’s Davis Cup history. The doubles team of Robert Lindstedt and Simon Aspelin is the team’s strength, as singles players Thomas Johansson and Andreas Vinciguerra have been struggling (or not playing at all due to injury). Israel, meanwhile, boasts Dudi Sela and Ram, but little else. An in-form Sela should be able to win both of his singles rubbers (especially since his opponents will not be able to enjoy the bonus of fan support), but Sweden is more than capable of taking the other three rubbers.
  
  Prediction: Sweden 3, Israel 2 (all rubbers live)
  
  
  In other ties, Argentina hosts the Netherlands, Croatia hosts Chile, Romania hosts Russia, and Germany hosts Austria.
  
  Predictions: Argentina 3, Netherlands 0 – Croatia 3, Chile 0 – Russia 3, Romania 2 – Germany 3, Austria 2
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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