Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal rests, Djokovic returns

  2009-02-16 09:50:24
  “Approach Shots” is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or “approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  The streak of three tournaments per week continues in Marseille, Buenos Aires, and Memphis. Rafael Nadal is obviously taking a break after re-injuring his knee in Rotterdam, Roger Federer is still resting in between the Australian Open and Dubai, and Andy Murray is not going to Marseille after his victorious week in Rotterdam. One member of the sport’s “Big 4,” however, is in action, as Novak Djokovic headlines the field at the Open 13.
  
  
  

  Open 13

  Where: Marseille, France
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 576,000 Euros
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending Champion: Andy Murray (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: The European indoor swing continues to dominate most of the headlines, although this time it’s Novak Djokovic leading the way instead of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray (Murray beat Nadal in the Rotterdam final on Sunday).
  
  Djokovic is making his first appearance since retiring in an Australian Open quarterfinal match against Andy Roddick. The top-seeded Serb will have to be on top of his game right from the start because his road to the Marseille final is not a smooth one. He will take on Jeremy Chardy, who he defeated in Melbourne, in the first round. Chardy recently finished runner-up to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the South African Open. Djokovic could then meet Zagreb semifinalist Jan Hernych in the second round, Marat Safin in the quarterfinals, and Tsonga in the semis.
  
  The bottom half of the draw, dominated by Frenchmen, should be a little bit more forgiving. Tomas Berdych, who had Roger Federer on the ropes in Australia, will be looking to crash a French party that consists primarily of Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, and Richard Gasquet. Simon and Gasquet could meet in the quarters, while Berdych and Monfils are both in the third quarter of the draw.
  
  Other Frenchmen to keep an eye on are Julien Benneteau, Marc Gicquel, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Fabrice Santoro, and Michael Llodra. Needless to say, the French fans in Marseille should have plenty to cheer about this week.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Marc Gicquel over Richard Gasquet. This one probably won’t happen, but Gicquel will be playing with confidence after a week in Rotterdam that was both lucky and good. He lost in qualifying, but got a lucky loser entry into the main draw and ended up reaching the quarterfinals, where he took Andy Murray to three sets. Gasquet’s only real notable performance so far in 2009 is a loss—an epic five-set loss to Fernando Gonzalez in the second round of the Australian Open.
  
  Also count on Ivan Ljubicic taking out Feliciano Lopez. Ljubicic is coming back from injury and he battled Tsonga extremely tough at the Australian Open. Lopez is still searching for his first match win in 2009; he lost in the first round in both Sydney and Melbourne.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon, Jeremy Chardy, Marc Gicquel
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Dmitry Tursunov, Julien Benneteau, Feliciano Lopez, Michael Llodra, Mikhail Youzhny, Paul-Henri Mathieu
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Novak Djokovic and Gilles Simon over Gael Monfils
  
  Final Prediction: Tsonga over Simon
  
  
  

  Copa Telmex

  Where: Buenos Aires, Argentina
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $600,000
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: David Nalbandian
  Defending Champion: David Nalbandian
  
  Draw Analysis: The South American clay-court swing continues with its strongest field yet at the Copa Telmex in Buenos Aires. Leading the way are the top three seeds: 2008 winner David Nalbandian, clay-court specialist Nicolas Almagro, and last week’s Brasil Open champion Tommy Robredo.
  
  Of those three, Robredo probably has the easiest draw, although his opener against Potito Starace will be no pushover. The other seeded player in the third quarter of the draw is Eduardo Schwank and none of the nearby unseeded entrants appear to be serious threats.
  
  In the top section—where Nalbandian is—the biggest dangers come from the unseeded ranks. Nalbandian could meet either Juan Carlos Ferrero or Brasil Open runner-up Thomaz Bellucci in the quarterfinals. Former French Open champion Gaston Gaudio is also making a return to the ATP Tour following a long playoff and he could meet Nalbandian in an all-Argentine second-round clash.
  
  Almagro opens with an all-Spanish affair against veteran Oscar Hernandez, who does nothing on any other surface but can still be effective on clay. Jose Acasuso, who has been in solid clay-court form over the past two weeks, and Almagro are on a collision course for the quarterfinals.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Thomaz Bellucci over Marcel Granollers. Bellucci dominated the clay-court Challenger circuit last spring and summer and he is back home on the dirt now. He was literally at home last week in Brazil, where he reached the final before succumbing to Tommy Robredo in three sets. Granollers is also accomplished on the slow stuff and he won a clay-court title last year in Houston. The Spaniard, however, has been struggling of late and he will have to turn it around in a hurry against an in-form Bellucci.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Tommy Robredo, Jose Acasuso, Thomaz Bellucci
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Albert Montanes, Marcel Granollers, Juan Monaco, Massu, Potito Starace, Oscar Hernandez, Agustin Calleri, Nicolas Lapentti
  
  Semifinal Predictions: David Nalbandian over Albert Montanes and Nicolas Almagro over Tommy Robredo
  
  Final Prediction: Almagro over Nalbandian
  
  
  

  Regions Morgan Keegan Championships

  Where: Memphis, Tennessee
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $1,226,500
  Points: 500
  Top Seed: Andy Roddick
  Defending Champion: Steve Darcis
  
  Draw Analysis: It doesn't have the Rafael Nadals and Andy Murrays of the world like last week’s ATP 500 event in Rotterdam, but the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships still boasts an impressive field.
  
  Headlining an American-laced draw is Andy Roddick, the United States’ top-ranked player and No. 6 in the world overall. Roddick is joined in Memphis by all three of his fellow San Jose semifinalists: Radek Stepanek, Mardy Fish, and James Blake. Stepanek defeated Roddick in the SAP Open semis on Saturday and Fish knocked out an injured James Blake.
  
  If Blake is ready to go for Memphis, he will take on former world No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt in a marquee first-round matchup. The good news for Blake is that match is not scheduled until Wednesday night, so he has plenty of time to rest his sprained ankle.
  
  Roddick, meanwhile, will meet defending Memphis champion Steve Darcis in the first round. Darcis, who has a dismal 0-3 match record so far this season and had to pull out from San Jose with an injury, upset Robin Söderling in last year's title match. Söderling is also back in Memphis and has a good draw. The Swede will face Florent Serra in the first round and he is in the weakest quarter of the draw, avoiding Roddick, Stepanek, Blake, Fish, and Juan Martin Del Potro.
  
  Del Potro, the No. 2 seed, opens with fellow Argentine and occasional doubles partner Guillermo Canas and he could meet Ernests Gulbis in round two. Stepanek, if he can recover from a long week in San Jose, could go head-to-head with Del Potro as early as the quarterfinals. Blake and Fish are also on a quarterfinal collision course in Memphis.
  
  Other first-round matches to watch--both in Roddick's quarter of the draw--include Sam Querrey vs. Tommy Haas and Marcos Baghdatis vs. Kei Nishikori.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Tommy Haas over Sam Querrey. Haas and Querrey both reached the quarterfinals in San Jose last week; Haas went down to Roddick and Querrey fell to Blake. The 6’6’’ American, seeded eighth in Memphis, opened his season with a runner-up finish in Auckland but he lost in the first round of his next two tournaments. Haas is returning from a long layoff at the end of 2008 but he is already in solid form this season. Unless Querrey is serving huge, Haas should be able to pull off what would only be an extremely minor upset.
  
  Hewitt vs. Blake on Wednesday night is also one to watch. The veteran Aussie is not in good form during his comeback from injury, but Blake sprained his ankle last week and his movement was almost nonexistent against Fish. When you play Hewitt, moving is one thing you simply must do.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Roddick, Radek Stepanek, Mardy Fish
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Igor Kunitsyn, Robby Ginepri, Ernests Gulbis, Steve Darcis, Guillermo Canas, Vince Spadea, Lleyton Hewitt, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Donald Young
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over Mardy Fish and Robin Söderling over Radek Stepanek
  
  Final Prediction: Roddick over Söderling
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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