Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal back in action in Rotterdam

  2009-02-09 08:38:19
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  If tennis fans took a break last week after an exhausting Australian Open, they missed three emotional titles on the ATP Tour. All three of the recent tournaments were won by fan favorites. Fernando Gonzalez prevailed in Vina Del Mar, Marin Cilic emerged victorious in his hometown of Zagreb, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, whose dad is from Africa, powered his way to the South African Open title.
  
  What will this week do for an encore? It's already off to a good start simply with the revealing of the three draws over the weekend. Two of the game's "Big 4" (Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray) are back in action, and both are participating at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam. A revitalized Andy Roddick and in-form Juan Martin Del Potro headline the SAP Open in San Jose. Clay-court master Nicolas Almagro hits the dirt in Brazil along with Tommy Robredo and last week's Vina Del Mar runner-up Jose Acasuso.
  
  It's just another wild week on the ATP Tour.
  
  

   

  AMRO World Tennis Tournament

  Where: Rotterdam, The Netherlands
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 1,445,000 Euros
  Points: 500
  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending Champion: Michael Llodra
  
  Draw Analysis: Michael Llodra was on fire early in 2008 and his hot streak included a shock title in Rotterdam. Judging from this year's draw, however, the chances of another surprise winner in 2009 look extremely slim. The presence of tennis' two hottest players, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray, certainly won't help anyone else's title prospects.
  
  Of course, it won't easy for Nadal and Murray, either. Nadal's top half of the draw looks especially tough, and the No. 1 seed could have to face last week's SA Open champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as early as the quarterfinals. Even to get that point, Nadal could have to overcome Tomas Berdych in the second round. Gael Monfils, who upset Nadal earlier this season in Doha, is a potential semifinal opponent for the Spaniard. The bottom half of the draw is not as strong, but it won't be a cakewalk for Murray right from the start. In round one Murray will face Ivan Ljubicic, who performed relatively well at both the Australian Open and last week's PBZ Zagreb Indoors. Indoor-court specialist Robin Soderling could earn the right to play Murray in the quarterfinals. Several talented stars are in line to take on the Scot in the semifinals. Among them are a red-hot Gilles Simon, SA Open semifinalist David Ferrer, and Zagreb runner-up Mario Ancic.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Jurgen Melzer over David Ferrer. The sixth-seeded Spaniard is not in as significant of a slump as he was in the second half of 2008, but he's far from on fire. Ferrer reached the semis in Auckland but only had to win one match to get there, got destroyed in the third round of the Australian Open by Marin Cilic, and most recently made it to the semis of the SA Open, where he had two match points against Jeremy Chardy to reach the title match. Melzer also recorded a third-round finish in Australia, losing to world No. 4 Andy Murray. The Austrian is not lighting up the circuit right now, but indoor hard courts give him an edge over Ferrer. If Melzer is serving well, an upset is a very real possibility.
  
  Also keep an eye on Igor Andreev vs. (3) Nikolay Davydenko and Evgeny Korolev vs. (8) Robin Soderling. Davydenko is just now returning from an injury and even though Soderling is awesome indoors, he got upset by Korolev in their most recent head-to-head encounter (2008 U.S. Open).
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Gilles Simon, Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mario Ancic
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Dmitry Tursunov, Julien Benneteau, Feliciano Lopez, Michael Llodra, Ivo Karlovic, Mikhail Youzhny
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Gael Monfils and Andy Murray over Gilles Simon
  
  Final Prediction: Murray over Tsonga
  
  

   

  Brasil Open

  Where: Costa Do Sauipe, Brazil
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $562,500
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Nicolas Almagro
  Defending Champion: Nicolas Almagro
  
  Draw Analysis: Nicolas Almagro is the No. 1 seed and the defending champion, and given his solid form at the moment, he also has to be considered the tournament favorite. The Spaniard has to be glad that Fernando Gonzalez, who looked dominant in winning the Vina Del Mar title last week, isn't in Brazil. Contenders who are on hand, however, included Tommy Robredo and Jose Acasuso, who was runner-up in Vina Del Mar.
  
  More good news for Almagro is that both Robredo (as the No. 2 seed) and Acasuso are in the bottom half of the Costa Do Sauipe draw. By far the toughest of the two halves, the bottom section also includes Juan Monaco, 2008 semifinalist Fabio Fognini, Vina Del Mar semifinalist Pablo Cuevas, and No. 6 seed Eduardo Schwank. Acasuso and Monaco have to square off in a blockbuster first-round showdown.
  
  Joining Almagro in a softer top half are clay-court specialists Albert Montanes and Marcel Granollers, the number three and five seeds, respectively. Juan Carlos Ferrero and Thomaz Bellucci, two of the most dangerous unseeded threats, are also in the section but would not meet Almagro until the semifinals.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Thomaz Bellucci over Potito Starace. The Brazilian fans are just one reason why Bellucci has a great chance of pulling off this upset. In addition to the home-court advantage, Bellucci is simply a force on clay even in the early stages of his career. He enjoyed a dominant stretch in Challenger events on the dirt last spring and then gave Nadal a decent battle in the first round of the French Open. The eighth-seeded Starace is in the midst of an extended slump, which continued in the form of a first-round Aussie Open loss to 16-year-old Bernard Tomic.
  
  Also watch out for Ferrero over (3) Montanes and Monaco over (4) Acasuso. Ferrero is always dangerous as a French Open champion and former world No. 1, while Acasuso must bounce back from a long week in Vina Del Mar, where he finished runner-up to Gonzalez.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Tommy Robredo, Jose Acasuso, Pablo Cuevas
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Albert Montanes, Marcel Granollers, Juan Monaco, Massu, Potito Starace, Oscar Hernandez, Juan Carlos Ferrero
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Nicolas Almagro over Juan Carlos Ferrero and Tommy Robredo over Jose Acasuso
  
  Final Prediction: Almagro over Robredo
  
  

   

  SAP Open

  Where: San Jose, California
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $600,000
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Andy Roddick
  Defending Champion: Andy Roddick
  
  Draw Analysis: Like Almagro in Brazil, Roddick is both the No. 1 seed and the defending champion in San Jose. While Almagro's 2008 title was his first in Costa Do Sauipe, Roddick has captured the SAP Open three different times. A fourth trophy would tie San Jose with Queen's Club in terms of the American's favorite tournaments. However, with the strongest field in SAP Open history, that task will not be easy.
  
  The good news for Roddick is that he is by far the weaker of the two halves of the draw. His most difficult potential route in the quarterfinals and semifinals involves Tommy Haas and No. 4 seed Radek Stepanek, whom Roddick defeated in last year's final. Roddick, however, won't be looking that far ahead of a potential second-round clash with Ernests Gulbis. In the second round of the 2008 U.S. Open, Gulbis served for a two-set lead before Roddick stormed back to survive 7-5 in the fourth.
  
  No. 2 seed Juan Martin Del Potro is the favorite to come out of the bottom section to book the other title match slot. But his path to the final looks far more difficult on paper than that of Roddick. The following players join Del Potro in the bottom half: James Blake, Mardy Fish, Sam Querrey, Marcos Baghdatis, Lleyton Hewitt, John Isner, Jarkko Nieminen, Kei Nishikori, and Gilles Muller. Del Potro's road to Sunday could include Muller or Nishikori in round two, Fish or Hewitt in the quarterfinals, and Blake or Baghdatis in the semis.
  
  If Roddick and Del Potro are able to navigate their ways into the title match, it will be a rematch of last summer's Indianapolis final, which the Argentine dominated in straight sets.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Marcos Baghdatis over Sam Querrey. Injuries derailed Baghdatis' 2008 campaign, but he reached the fourth round of the Australian Open last month and made a quarterfinal appearance in South Africa just a few days ago. The sixth-seeded Querrey finished runner-up to Del Potro in Auckland but got blown out by Philipp Kohlschreiber in the first round of the Australian Open. Querrey will have to put in a ton of his big first serves because the Cypriot's return is lethal.
  
  You don't need me to tell you that another one to watch is Hewitt vs. Fish. The fifth-seeded Fish has been less than stellar so far this season and although Hewitt is coming back from an injury-plagued 2008 season, he battle an in-form Gonzalez to five sets in Australia.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Roddick, Juan Martin Del Potro, Radek Stepanek, Marcos Baghdatis, Gilles Muller,
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Mardy Fish, Igor Kunitsyn, Robby Ginepri, Ernests Gulbis, Steve Darcis, Guillermo Canas, Vince Spadea, Lleyton Hewitt, John Isner
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Andy Roddick over Robby Ginepri and James Blake over Juan Martin Del Potro
  
  Final Prediction: Roddick over Blake
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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