Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer rest, tour surges onward

  2009-02-02 00:43:00
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  The Australian Open is over, but the 2009 season is just getting started. After yet another memorable installment of the Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer rivalry, some tennis fans probably think they need a break, or at least some sleep. However, there's only time for a quick deep breath, because we're going right back at it. Nadal, Federer, and most of the rest of the top players will, in fact, enjoy a brief reprieve, but all systems are go for almost everyone else.
  
  There's a reason why the ATP Tour was renamed the ATP World Tour, and the next few weeks are it. This week the tournaments take place in Croatia, South Africa, and Chile. As men's tennis goes full steam ahead into the U.S. Masters Series hard-court events (Indian Wells and Miami), stops will also include San Jose, Costa Do Sauipe, Rotterdam, Marseille, Buenos Aires, Memphis, Delray Beach, Dubai, and Acapulco.
  
  Needless to say, there's no rest for the weary, and it all starts back up again right now.
  
  
  

  PBZ Zagreb Indoors

  Where: Zagreb, Croatia
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: 450,000 Euros
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Igor Andreev
  Defending Champion: Sergiy Stakhovsky
  
  Draw Analysis: Little-known Sergiy Stakhovsky enjoyed a Cinderella run to the Zagreb title in 2008, knocking out No. 1 seed Ivan Ljubicic in the final. And while we've already had a couple of surprises already this season (Somdev Devvarman in the Chennai final and Fernando Verdasco in the Australian Open semis), it's hard to imagine another stroke of magic in Zagreb this time around. The talent there just seems too good for a virtually unheard of player to break through and steal the trophy.
  
  Leading the way in the talent department is Marin Cilic, seeded second and certainly the odds-on favorite. The 20-year-old Croat won a title in Chennai to begin his 2009 campaign and he reached the fourth round in Melbourne before falling to Juan Martin Del Potro. Cilic has a tough opening match against veteran Frenchman Arnaud Clement and dangerous hard-court player Jurgen Melzer is also in the bottom quarter of the draw, so Cilic will have no cakewalk.
  
  Igor Andreev is the top seed in Zagreb, and while he is definitely improving his hard-court game (fourth round of last year's U.S. Open), he would rather be competing with something much slower than a hard indoor surface under his feet. Andreev could have to deal with Ernests Gulbis, whom he defeated in five sets in the second round of the Aussie Open, and big-serving Mario Ancic in the top quarter of the draw.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Viktor Troicki over Simone Bolelli. This would be not be a shocking upset, but Bolelli is the No. 8 seed going up against unseeded Troicki. The Italian has the edge in current form, but the surface should favor Troicki. While Bolelli has a very good serve and has enjoyed some hard court success in the past, he has done the majority of his damage on clay. Troicki, on the other hand, thrives on the hard stuff with his even bigger serve and forehand. Last season the 6'3'' Serb reached an ATP final in Washington, D.C. (lost to Del Potro) and won two matches at the U.S. Open before running into Nadal. If his serve is clicking, he should at least be able to provide Bolelli with a significant test.
  
  Also watch out for Philipp Petzschner against No. 3 seed Ivo Karlovic. Petzschner won a surprising ATP final last fall in Vienna and Karlovic has been in brutal form ever since reaching the semifinals of the Masters Series Cincinnati. This meeting between huge servers will probably all come down to two or even three tiebreakers.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Marin Cilic
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Ivo Karlovic, Ernests Gulbis, Mikhail Youzhny, Ivan Ljubicic, Evgeny Korolev, Guillermo Canas
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Mario Ancic over Paul-Henri Mathieu and Marin Cilic over Ivan Ljubicic
  
  Final Prediction: Cilic over Ancic
  
  
  

  Movistar Open

  Where: Vina Del Mar, Chile
  Surface: Clay
  Prize Money: $496,750
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Fernando Gonzalez
  Defending Champion: Fernando Gonzalez
  
  Draw Analysis: There's the top two seeded players-Fernando Gonzalez and Tommy Robredo-and then there's everyone else. At least that's what it looks like on paper. Gonzalez is coming off a quarterfinal appearance in Melbourne, where he pulled off five-set wins over both Lleyton Hewitt and, in more epic fashion, Richard Gasquet. Robredo has enjoyed recent hard-court success with fourth-round finishes at the Aussie Open last week and at the 2008 U.S. Open; and Robredo's even more comfortable on the red clay.
  
  While there aren't any other top players in Vina Del Mar (Albert Montanes is the No. 3 seed), there are-as you probably expect-plenty of formidable clay-court specialists. Jose Acasuso lurks in the bottom section of the draw as the No. 4 seed, and as Fernando Verdasco gets better and better, Acasuso gets more and more famous as the man who lost to Verdasco in five sets in last year's Davis Cup-clinching singles rubber. In order to make headlines in winning fashion, Acasuso will have to navigate his way through a quarter of the draw that includes dirt-lovers Thomaz Bellucci and Chilean Nicolas Massu. To say Massu is on the downside of his career would be an understatement, but never underestimate the power of the Chilean crowd.
  
  Gonzalez's draw does not look too taxing, although a rematch of last year's would-be Vina Del Mar final could be in the works for the third round. Gonzalez and Juan Monaco were set to square off in the 2008 title match when Monaco severely sprained his ankle in the doubles final, forcing him to pull out.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Nicolas Massu over Agustin Calleri. The top four seeds get byes into the second round, and seeds five through eight are nothing to write home about, so there won't be a real shocking upset in round one no matter what happens. But don't be surprised if Massu treats the home crowd to a win over the seventh-seeded Calleri. As one of only two established ATP standouts from Chile (along with Gonzalez) in the last decade, and as a 2004 Olympic double-gold medalist in both singles and doubles, you can be the fans in Vina Del Mar will embrace him like a favorite son. With both Massu and Calleri struggling mightily with their games in their relatively advanced years, this one could all come down to confidence and home-court advantage. Look for the Chileans to drive Massu to at least one win this week.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Fernando Gonzalez
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Albert Montanes, Jose Acasuso, Juan Monaco, Agsutin Calleri, Nicolas Massu, Juan Ignacio Chela
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Fernando Gonzalez over Eduardo Schwank and Tommy Robredo over Thomaz Bellucci
  
  Final Prediction: Gonzalez over Robredo
  
  
  

  SA Open

  Where: Johannesburg, South Africa
  Surface: Hard, Plexicushion
  Prize Money: $500,000
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  Defending Champion: inaugural SA Open
  
  Draw Analysis: Oft-injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was initially questionable for this event due to a recurring back problem, but it looks like the charismatic Frenchman is now good to go. If that's the case, he is the heavy favorite to win the title. Aside from Tsonga, the only real contender looks like No. 8 seed Marcos Baghdatis, who also limped (and to a far greater extent than Tsonga) through 2008 with injuries. At the Australian Open, however, Baghdatis won three matches before succumbing to Novak Djokovic in a long four-setter. The only other established star in the Johannesburg field is No. 2 seed David Ferrer, but the Spaniard is in the midst of a ghastly slump.
  
  With both Baghdatis and Ferrer in the bottom quarter of the draw, Tsonga should be able to coast into the final as long as he is 100 percent physically. Up-and-comer Kevin Anderson, a dangerous hard-court player with a big serve, will have the South African fans in his corner and could meet Tsonga in the quarterfinals.
  
  Baghdatis and Ferrer are on a collision course for the quarterfinals, meaning at least two of the four semifinalists will come from outside the "Big 3" of the SA Open. Benjamin Becker and Jeremy Chardy will most likely contend for the semifinal spot alongside either Baghdatis or Ferrer in the bottom half of the draw.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Bjorn Phau over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. Phau had an impressive showing against Nadal in the first round of last year's U.S. Open; he lost in straight sets, but two of the three were extremely tight. This time he is going up against no Nadal. On the contrary, Garcia-Lopez is a borderline disaster on hard courts.
  
  Also keep an eye on Rik de Voest against No. 6 seed Ivan Navarro and Dudi Sela against Ferrer. Navarro is a hard-court slouch and de Voest will certainly have the South African crowd behind him. Ferrer has been in dismal form ever since the end of last year's clay season, and Sela is coming off a third-round performance in Melbourne, where he eventually fell to Tsonga in four sets.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Marcos Baghdatis, Dudi Sela
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): David Ferrer, Kristof Vliegen
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Bjorn Phau and Marcos Baghdatis over Benjamin Becker
  
  Final Prediction: Tsonga over Baghdatis
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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