Ricky Dimon

• 2009 Australian Open Preview

  2009-01-17 00:32:33
  Gone are the days when one man (Roger Federer) dominated men’s tennis. Gone are the days when even two men (Federer and Rafael Nadal) owned the sport. While the Federer-Nadal rivalry was and still is an invigorating force behind the ATP, what’s left is some refreshing parity. What does that mean for the upcoming Australian Open? It means we’re in for a wild and crazy fortnight at Melbourne Park, where—just as in the past—the only thing to expect is the unexpected.
  
  What we do know, however, is where in the tournament certain matchups could take place, as the men’s singles draw ceremony was held on Friday. All eyes focused on where the No. 3 and 4 players in the world — Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray — would fall. The result: Djokovic is in Federer’s half while Murray looms large in Nadal’s section.
  
  But that’s far from the only intriguing aspect of the draw. Let’s take a look at the whole thing.
  
  
  

  Top Quarter of the Draw

  Nadal cannot be enthused about the prospect of playing Murray in the semifinals; after all, the world No. 1 lost to Murray at the same stage in last year’s U.S. Open. Despite that relatively bad luck of the draw, Nadal’s own quarter is actually not too scary. He’ll have no problem advancing through the first two rounds, at which point his nearest seeded player and potential third-round opponent is Dmitry Tursunov, who has done nothing since the 2008 U.S. Open Series. Richard Gasquet, Fernando Gonzalez, and Lleyton Hewitt are potential fourth-round opponents for the Spaniard. They are talented, but an upset of Nadal by any of those three would be nothing less than shocking. Things could get a bit more interesting in the quarterfinals, where the most likely contenders are Gilles Simon, who stunned Nadal last fall in Madrid, and another Frenchman in Gael Monfils, who recently denied Nadal in Doha, Qatar. Also keep an eye out for big servers Ivo Karlovic and Mario Ancic, and dangerous unseeded threat Tommy Haas in this portion of the field.
  
  Best First-Round Matchup — Lleyton Hewitt vs. Fernando Gonzalez. This is by far the most enticing first-round encounter of the quarter and probably of the entire draw. In the eyes of Australian fans, that’s not even a question. Hewitt is still their highest-ranked player at No. 74 in the world and their best hope to do damage Down Under. Of course, that says more about the state of Australian tennis than it does about Hewitt. The two-time Grand Slam champion limped through a difficult 2008 campaign with various injuries, but he is off to a decent start this season after reaching the quarterfinals in Sydney. Gonzalez, the No. 13 seed, is an extremely dangerous opponent, but you never know what you are going to get from him. He is a former Aussie Open runner-up (2007) and he won the silver medal at the Beijing Olympics last summer. However, Gonzalez slumped throughout most of the indoor season and he has not played yet in 2009. A season-opening match against Hewitt is a tough proposition, as the former world No. 1 almost always makes his opponents work hard to win, by minimizing unforced errors. Whatever happens in this one, it’s going to happen with plenty of drama and emotion.
  
  Best Potential Matchups — Second Round: Ivo Karlovic vs. Mario Ancic. If you like long points and grueling baseline rallies, go ahead and avoid this one. If you like aces, tune in. Karlovic and Ancic would certainly put on a hard-hitting show featuring more than a couple of tiebreakers. Third Round: Richard Gasquet vs. Lleyton Hewitt. Hewitt won an epic fourth-round encounter at the 2006 U.S. Open in which Gasquet cramped in the fifth set and still almost prevailed. If Hewitt makes it to the third round next week, fans will be going crazy. Fourth round: Gael Monfils vs. Gilles Simon. What a battle this would be between fellow Frenchman and occasional doubles partners. The quality of it would be sensational, as Simon surged into the Top 10 in 2008 and Monfils erupted late in the season. Quarterfinals: Rafael Nadal vs. Gael Monfils. Would Nadal get revenge for his Doha setback, or would Monfils end up becoming the latest installment of Australian Open surprises (see Johansson, Schuettler, Baghdatis, Gonzalez, and Tsonga).
  
  Most Intriguing Storyline — Nadal’s quest for a first Grand Slam title on hard courts and Hewitt’s attempt to return to prominence. All eyes have been on the “Big 4” (Federer, Nadal, Murray, and Djokovic) and that won’t change over the next fortnight, especially in Nadal’s case. He says he is feeling great both physically and about his game, but he lost to Murray in an Abu Dhabi exhibition and then got upset by Monfils in Doha. This, of course, is coming after Nadal missed the end of 2008 with knee tendinitis. Needless to say, there are plenty of skeptics out there. Hewitt has also endured his fair share of physical problems and outside Australia, he seems to be almost a forgotten man. Down Under, however, he’s huge. He electrified Melbourne as the 2005 runner-up and again last year with a memorable five-set win over Marcos Baghdatis. Aussie fans are surely starved for an impressive encore performance.
  
  Prediction — Rafael Nadal
  
  
  

  Second Quarter of the Draw

  This section is loaded with talent (led by Murray), but also littered with question marks (aside from Murray). Jo-Wilfried Tsonga finished runner-up at last year’s Australian Open, but the oft-injured French star pulled out of Sydney last week with a back problem. Radek Stepanek, who looked great in winning the Brisbane title earlier this month, also pulled out of Sydney. 19-year-old Japanese sensation Kei Nishikori reached the fourth round of the 2008 U.S. Open, so he clearly has Grand Slam potential. But—you guessed it—he also withdrew from Sydney during a first-round match. Also in this quarter of the Aussie Open draw are talented ball-bashers James Blake and Ernests Gulbis. When they are hot, both men can beat anyone in tennis, but when they are off, they look like they don’t belong in the top 100. What will we see from them this week? The bottom line is that while Murray is surrounded by danger, he’s the only sure-thing in an otherwise erratic section of the field.
  
  Best First-Round Matchup — Kei Nishikori vs. Jurgen Melzer. Assuming Nishikori is 100 percent, this will present an intriguing contrast in styles. Nishikori is content to keep balls in play and slug it out from the baseline, while Melzer likes to eventually get into the net following his strong lefty serve. One of the biggest surprises in 2008 was Nishikori’s ATP title in Delray Beach, which he captured after having to qualify for the main draw. Always a force on hard courts, Melzer led Murray two sets to love in the third round of last year’s U.S. Open before squandering the lead.
  
  Best Potential Matchup — Second Round: Arnaud Clement vs. Fernando Verdasco. Yes, it looks like slim pickin’s in the second round of this quarter, but Clement vs. Verdasco would at least produce some good tennis. Verdasco reached the Brisbane final earlier this month and got a nice warm-up for the Australian Open at the Kooyong Classic, while Clement gave eventual runner-up Andy Roddick a scare in Doha. Third Round: James Blake vs. Ernests Gulbis. Blake has an obvious disdain for Gulbis, if only because he lost to him twice last year in big tournaments: the French Open and the Masters Series Cincinnati. This wouldn’t make for the best or smartest tennis, but it would certainly showcase the hardest hitting. Fourth Round: James Blake vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. In terms of talent and marketability of the match, this one would be off the charts. Furthermore, if both men are still around at this point in the tournament, they would have to be playing well. When these two are playing well, they are usually on fire. Quarterfinals: Andy Murray vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga stunned Murray in the first round of last year’s Australian Open. Yes, first round. The rematch would be scintillating.
  
  Most Intriguing Storyline — Murray will get the most attention, but he should be able to make his way to the quarterfinals and perhaps even the semifinals with relative ease. The big story, unfortunately, is the health of Tsonga. He captivated the Aussie fans with a thrilling run to last year’s title match and it would be a massive blow to the tournament if he is unable to compete; or even unable to compete at absolutely 100 percent. If Tsonga looks good in his opening match against Juan Monaco, watch out.
  
  Prediction — Andy Murray
  
  
  

  Third Quarter of the Draw

  It used to be—when men’s tennis had a “Big 3” rather than a “Big 4”—that Nikolay Davydenko’s so-called quarter of the draw was always the weakest link of a Grand Slam. Now, however, it looks like Djokovic’s section is the least intriguing, and that certainly turned out to be the case when the draw was revealed on Friday. It just lacks the star power that is readily apparent elsewhere in the tournament. Roddick is there, but he has been surpassed in both talent and likability by a whole host of players. David Nalbandian is also there, and while he can get hot at any moment, he is a liable to a meltdown (not unlike last year’s Aussie Open blowout loss to Juan Carlos Ferrero). Baghdatis has charisma going for him and history behind him (2006 runner-up), but he could barely stay on the tennis court in 2008 due to injuries. At a time when Djokovic was in need of a favorable draw, it looks like he got it.
  
  Best First-Round Matchup — Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. Jarkko Nieminen. It won’t garner much attention, but it should result in rock-solid tennis. These two consistent baseliners seem to be in form this year, as well. Mathieu reached the Brisbane semifinals while Nieminen stunned Djokovic in the Sydney semis. If you’re a fan of five-set wars, this is probably the one to watch. Also keep an eye on Julien Benneteau vs. Marcos Baghdatis, Sam Querrey vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Fabrice Santoro vs. Juan Carlos Ferrero.
  
  Best Potential Matchup — Second Round: Robin Soderling vs. Marcos Baghdatis. Soderling already has a quarterfinal and a semifinal finish this season, but the crowd will be behind Baghdatis. The Cypriot has been sidelined more often than not recently, but he played well at the Kooyong Classic exhibition for his Aussie Open preparation. Third Round: Andy Roddick vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber. They squared off at this same stage last year and the result was one of the most flawless tennis matches ever played. The winners-to-errors ratio was unheard of for both men, but Kohlschreiber eventually pulled off the upset in five sets. If a potential rematch is just half as good, it will still be astounding. Fourth Round: Andy Roddick vs. David Nalbandian. Roddick looked good in reaching the Doha final and has perhaps turned his game around under new coach Larry Stefanki. Nalbandian is always up-and-down, but his performance this week in Sydney suggests he is ready for a good fortnight in Melbourne. Quarterfinals: Andy Roddick vs. Novak Djokovic. This could be even better off the court than it is on the court. At least that was the case when they met at this same point in last year’s U.S. Open. Djokovic survived a tight four-setter, but the war of words surrounding Djokovic’s injury troubles was even better than the tennis.
  
  Most Intriguing Storyline — Djokovic’s title defense, of course. It’s always interesting to see whether or not a player can handle the pressure of defending a Grand Slam title, and it should be especially difficult for Djokovic. First of all, it will be the Serb’s fist time defending a slam title. Second, if he fails to defend, he will lose valuable ranking points and fall further behind the No. 2 spot held by Federer. Djokovic had a chance to assume that position in Sydney, but his loss to Nieminen ended those hopes. Furthermore, Djokovic’s form does not appear to be up to the current standard of Nadal, Federer, and especially Murray. Nonetheless, it’s not all bad news for Djokovic. It’s hard to imagine any defending champion flying under the radar, but if one ever has, it’s Djokovic Down Under. That could help alleviate some of the pressure. Furthermore, his draw is far from taxing. All in all, it should be an extremely interesting title defense.
  
  Prediction — David Nalbandian
  
  
  

  Bottom Quarter of the Draw

  If Djokovic got a good draw, Federer got one of the best draws imaginable. Aside from Federer himself, this section of the field is without question the weakest. Juan Martin Del Potro is dangerous—he caught fire last summer with four straight ATP titles and is already picking up where he left off with an impressive showing in Auckland—but he has never made it past the quarterfinals of a major. The only players in this quarter who have made it past that stage of a Grand Slam are former slam champions Marat Safin and Carlos Moya—who are both currently in slumps—in addition to David Ferrer, who has fallen out of the Top 10 after an impressive 2007 campaign, and Robby Ginepri, whose run to the 2005 U.S. Open semifinals proved to be an aberration. Stanislas Wawrinka, Federer’s gold medal-winning partner, is talented but was nothing short of dreadful throughout the second half of 2008. Tomas Berdych looks like he might never live up to his potential, and he certainly does not have the mental fortitude to be a threat in a slam anytime soon. The only thing standing between Federer and the Aussie Open semis is Federer himself. Unfortunately for the Swiss, given his current form that could be enough to stop him.
  
  Best First-Round Matchup — Tomas Berdych vs. Robby Ginepri. Sure it isn’t great, but it could turn out to be a thriller. Both men are capable of producing awesome tennis; their mental games, however, prevent them from doing so more often than not. Berdych also played an underdog American opponent in the first round of the last Grand Slam—Sam Querrey at the 2008 U.S. Open—and lost badly. Will Ginepri also be able to pull off what would be considered a surprise? It probably all depends on Berdych…and that’s not necessarily a bad thing for Ginepri.
  
  Best Potential Matchup — Second Round: Marin Cilic vs. Janko Tipsarevic. They just played a three-set thriller in Chennai, which Cilic won en route to the title. Tipsarevic would most likely enjoy the crowd support thanks to his epic encounter with Federer last year (lost 10-8 in the fifth set). Third Round: Marat Safin vs. Roger Federer. If Safin makes it through two matches, that means he is playing well and probably able to at least stay on the court with the world No. 2. Safin and Federer have a history in Melbourne, as Safin scored a 2005 semifinal upset in an instant classic on his way to the championship. Fourth Round: Marin Cilic vs. Juan Martin Del Potro. Cilic could be this year’s Del Potro; in other words, a rising star who breaks into or close to the Top 10. If Cilic prevails in what would be a battle of 20-year-olds, he’ll be well on his way. Quarterfinals: Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Roger Federer. As stated earlier, Federer could not have asked for much more with his draw. Del Potro would not be a pushover quarterfinal opponent and he is playing well enough from the baseline to trouble Federer. Still, his lack of Grand Slam experience would probably cost him.
  
  Most Intriguing Storyline — Federer’s bid to regain the title. He won it in 2004 and then went back-to-back in 2006 and 2007, but Djokovic ended his three-peat chances in last year’s semifinals. Will Federer get back on track? His recent losses to Murray leave him up against the odds, but the good news for Federer is that he won’t have to face Murray until the final, if both men advance that far. Andreas Seppi is by no means the easiest of first-round opponents, so that match should provide some nice insight into Federer’s chances for the rest of the fortnight.
  
  Prediction — Roger Federer

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