Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer, Murray rest

  2009-01-11 14:07:37
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  The upcoming tournaments won't be as frantic as the season-opening week, as Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray will all take a break. (Federer will actually take part in the Kooyong exhibition event). At the same time, it's not exactly the calm before the storm (the storm being the Australian Open), either. Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga are in Sydney. So are Gilles Simon and David Nalbandian. Auckland boasts an intriguing crop of youngsters, including two on the rise (Kei Nishikori and Ernests Gulbis), and one already arrived (Juan Martin Del Potro). After an awesome start to the season last week, it's full steam ahead to the Australian Open!
  
  
  

  Heineken Open

  Where: Auckland, New Zealand
  Surface: Hard, Rebound Ace
  Prize Money: $480,750
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Juan Martin Del Potro
  Defending Champion: Philipp Kohlschreiber
  
  Draw Analysis: Juan Martin Del Potro, who surged into the Top 10 last season after winning four straight ATP tournaments in between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, headlines the field as the No. 1 seed. The Auckland draw is a little bit top half-heavy, so Del Potro won't have any kind of cakewalk to the title match. Robin Söderling, who reached the Brisbane quarterfinals last week, is solid on hard courts and is a potential semifinal opponent for Del Potro as the No. 3 seed.
  
  But don't even pencil in Del Potro that far just yet. His first match could come against Ernests Gulbis, who-as tennis fans surely remember-sent a No. 1 seed (Djokovic) packing after one match last week. The 20-year-old Latvian has the talent to deprive yet another tournament of its No. 1 seed right away. Gulbis, however, must first get past Marcel Granollers, who destroyed him on clay last season in Houston.
  
  Another dangerous youngster lurks in the bottom half of the draw. Kei Nishikori upset Tomas Berdych en route to the Brisbane quarterfinals last week and he could get the best of defending champion Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second round. The rising Japanese star goes up against veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero in his opener.
  
  David Ferrer is the favorite, at least on paper, to reach the final out of the bottom half as the No. 2 seed, but his game dropped off the map late in 2008. Nishikori, who beat him at last season's U.S. Open, could end Ferrer's Auckland hopes in the quarterfinals. Fourth-seeded Nicolas Almagro is the last of the four bye recipients, and his early road through the tournament could include Steve Darcis in round two and Sam Querrey in the quarterfinals.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: At-risk seeds in the opening round include No. 5 Philipp Kohlschreiber and No. 8 Juan Monaco. Kohlschreiber has to go up against veteran Slovak Dominik Hrbaty, who is coming off an impressive week in which he led his country to a surprise title at the Hopman Cup. The German started off 2008 strong with this Auckland title followed by an epic win over Andy Roddick at the Australian Open, and Kohlschreiber needs to get hot right away once again in order to fend off this possible upset.
  
  Monaco emerged on the ATP scene in 2007, but his momentum was derailed by injuries last year. He never really recovered from turning his ankle in a doubles match prior to what would have been a singles title match in Vina del Mar last February. His first-round opponent in Auckland, Victor Hanescu, came on strong late last season and reached the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open last week. A Hanescu win would only be an "upset" based on the seeding; in actuality, it would be a surprise if the 6'6'' Romanian doesn't beat Monaco.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Juan Martin Del Potro, Kei Nishikori, Dominik Hrbaty, Victor Hanescu
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): David Ferrer, Juan Monaco, Juan Carlos Ferrero
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Robin Söderling over Juan Martin Del Potro and Kei Nishikori over Sam Querrey
  
  Final Prediction: Söderling over Nishikori
  
  
  

  Medibank International

  Where: Sydney, Australia
  Surface: Hard
  Prize Money: $484,750
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending Champion: Dmitry Tursunov
  
  Draw Analysis: Djokovic did not get as bad of a draw as he got last week against Gulbis, but it's still not overly kind. The Serb, after a bye, could go up against Paul-Henri Mathieu in his first match. Mathieu eliminated Gulbis right after Gulbis beat Djokovic last week, and the Frenchman went on to the semifinals. Andreas Seppi is up first for Mathieu, however, so Djokovic's second-round opponent is up in the air.
  
  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is also in Djokovic's half, and the No. 1 seed can't be happy about that. Tsonga beat Djokovic three times last fall after losing to him in last year's Australian Open final. The Frenchman's road the Auckland semis could include Simone Bolelli and Tomas Berdych.
  
  Receiving opening-round byes in the bottom half of the draw are No. 2 Gilles Simon and No. 4 David Nalbandian. Simon's path looks especially difficult. His quarter features fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet, defending champion Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and last week's Brisbane champion Radek Stepanek. Nalbandian's section isn't as tough, but Mardy Fish, Lleyton Hewitt, Michael Llodra, and Janko Tipsarevic can all be dangerous.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Jurgen Melzer over Tommy Robredo and Janko Tipsarevic over Mardy Fish. Melzer upset Fish in the first-round of Brisbane last week, and both could be involved in more upsets this week. Robredo reached the fourth round of the 2008 U.S. Open, but he still prefers clay. Melzer's aggressive style of play works well and hard courts and should trouble the seventh-seeded Spaniard. Tipsarevic reached the quarterfinals of the Chennai Open last week before losing to Marin Cilic in a thriller, so the Serb is off to a nice start in 2009. Fish made it to the 2008 U.S. Open quarterfinals but hasn't done much since and his loss to Melzer can't have him feeling great about his game. Melzer over Robredo is the more likely of these potential upsets, but both have a good chance of happening.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Gilles Simon, Paul-Henri Mathieu, Radek Stepanek
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tomas Berdych, Dmitry Tursunov
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Novak Djokovic and David Nalbandian over Gilles Simon
  
  Final Prediction: Tsonga over Nalbandian
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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