Ricky Dimon

• 2009 Masters Cup Predictions

  2009-01-06 02:19:49
  

  1.	Roger Federer — It was obvious that Federer lost his aura of invincibility in 2008. Whether or not his dominance is completely over, however, is a different story. Some say Federer's fall from the top spot on the ATP Tour was just a natural progression of things. I'm saying that with Pete Sampras' Grand Slam record within reach (Federer is one slam away), Federer will have extra motivation to propel himself to one more year as the best player in the world.
  2.	Rafael Nadal — The only question in regards to Nadal's Masters Cup status is whether or not his body will still be intact at the end of the season. It wasn't-at least not enough to play-last year. Nonetheless, go ahead and chalk up a fifth straight French Open title for the Spaniard. Nadal, however, might need a breakout performance on hard courts in order to fend off his challengers.
  3.	Andy Murray — Murray erupted last season, winning back-to-back Masters Series titles and reaching the final of the U.S. Open. He swiftly turned the ATP Tour's "Big 3" into a "Big 4." If the Scot can somehow start working this kind of magic on clay-and he should be able to-he has a chance to finish the year ranked No. 1.
  4.	Novak Djokovic — Barring serious injury, four Masters Cup spots are already all but guaranteed: one for Federer, one for Nadal, one for Murray, and one for Djokovic. The Serb won last season's Masters Cup title, so he enters 2008 with plenty of momentum. If he wants to finish 2009 as the No. 1 player in the world, however, he needs to find more consistency.
  5.	Andy Roddick — There's the top four, and then there's everyone else. Unfortunately, Roddick's placement at No. 5 here has more to do with the quality of the "everyone else" that it has to do with Roddick. After all, the American slumped big-time for much of 2008. Still, if he can stay healthy under new coach Larry Stefanki, a resurgent year is not out of the question.
  6.	Nikolay Davydenko — Once the clear-cut No. 3 player in the world, Davydenko is starting to be surpassed by a younger crop of stars. Even so, the knock on Davydenko heading into 2008 was that he could not win a big title. But the Russian silenced those questions by winning the Masters Series Miami. That, along with the end of the widely-publicized betting scandal, should allow Davydenko to produce at least one more rock-solid year on tour.
  7.	Juan Martin Del Potro — Del Potro won't be able to sneak up on anyone this time around. Sneak up, however, is exactly what he did on the tennis world last summer, when he won four straight ATP tournaments (the first four of his career!) in between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He doesn't yet have the all-court game to challenge the Big 4, but he has the talent to keep his spot in the top eight. Finishing 2009 as high as No. 5 in the world would not come as a huge surprise.
  8.	Gael Monfils — This, obviously, is my sleeper pick. Then again, nobody should be sleeping on Monfils anymore; not after what he did from June until the end of 2008 (semifinals of the French Open, quarterfinals of the Olympics, fourth round of the U.S. Open to name just a few performances). Armed with a rare clean bill of health and a new coach in Roger Rasheed, the Frenchman should finally live up to his massive hype in 2009.

  
  
  Outside looking in:
  
  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga — It's easy to see that Tsonga will be in the 2009 Masters Cup if he stays healthy throughout the season. The chances of that happening, however, are slim. The Frenchman qualified for last year's eight-man tournament despite missing three months and two Grand Slams, but unless he wins a slam, there's no way he can afford to miss that much time this season.
  
  Gilles Simon — Simon exploded out of almost nowhere to qualify for the 2008 Masters Cup. Clearly a player on the rise, there's no reason to think he won't contend for the season-ending event yet again. The Frenchman, however, needs to add some offensive weapons to his arsenal and come up big at a Grand Slam for once in order to sustain this incredible success.
  
  Robin Söderling — There just aren't enough indoor tournaments for Söderling to get over the hump in Masters Cup qualifying. The Swede can rack up rankings points early in the season and again in the fall during the second indoor swing, but he has always been far too inconsistent in between. He doesn't have the mental game to do it, either.
  
  Longshots:
  
  Marin Cilic — Probably one year away. Cilic has the power game (especially with his serve and backhand) to make a run at the Top 10, but it won't happen until he improves his forehand and movement. Both of those things happening at once for a 20-year-old is too much to expect.
  
  Ernests Gulbis — Probably two years away. At 20, Gulbis already has Top 10 talent. In terms of consistency and mental capacity, however, the Latvian looks like a player who belongs well outside of the Top 100. The result will probably be a few more years of something in between the two extremes.
  
  
  Dropping out of Masters Cup discussion:
  
  David Ferrer — Ferrer and Davydenko spent much of 2007 and the early stages of 2008 bouncing back and forth between No. 4 and No. 5 in the world. While Davydenko is still somewhat close to that discussion, Ferrer is now out of the picture. The fact that the Spaniard won a shocking grass-court title last season suggests he has the all-court game to make a comeback, but his lack of offense will probably prevent him from ever hooking back up with the game's elite.
  
  David Nalbandian — Flashes of brilliance interspersed with prolong slumps is not the recipe to qualify for the Masters Cup. That's unless the brilliance results in a Grand Slam title, but with the Big 4 dominating men's tennis, it's hard to imagine even Nalbandian catching enough fire to win a big one.
  
  James Blake — Blake somehow managed to finish 10th in the world in 2008 despite an extremely quiet season. Perhaps that's what happens when you do well in enough smaller tournaments to compensate for Grand Slam misery. The American has already risen from the dead (almost literally) once in his career, but at his age (29), the chances of a similar resurrection are miniscule.
  
  Fernando Gonzalez — 2009 is not an Olympic year and that spells trouble for Gonzalez, who won a bronze in singles and gold in doubles in 2004 and a silver in singles last summer. The departure of coach Larry Stefanki won't help matters. Neither will the Chilean's age (28).
  
  Richard Gasquet — Is it time to give up on Gasquet? It didn't look like it when he led Andy Murray two sets to love and served for the match in the third set at Wimbledon, but now that might be the case. Despite his talent, the Frenchman is nowhere near consistent enough to contend for a Shanghai spot.
  
  Tomas Berdych — At 23, Berdych still has time to live up to the hype, but it's never a good sign when you're going in the wrong direction in the rankings at such a young age. Unless his mental game underwent a sudden metamorphosis this off-season, the Czech will not be a factor in the 2009 Masters Cup discussion.

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