Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Nadal, Federer raise curtain on 2009 ATP season

  2009-01-04 20:27:12
  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  Welcome back, tennis fans! The 2009 season is finally upon us, and to say it's going to start with a bang would be an understatement. Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray-not to mention plenty of other top players-are all in action.
  
  
  

  Qatar ExxonMobil Open

  Where: Doha, Qatar
  Surface: Hard, Plexicushion
  Prize Money: $1,110,250
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Rafael Nadal
  Defending Champion: Andy Murray
  
  Draw Analysis: With Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray all in the field, the pressing question was on whose side of the draw would Murray fall. The answer: Federer's.
  
  It's good news for Nadal, who lost to Murray in three sets in the Abu Dhabi exhibition final on Saturday, that he won't have to play Murray until the Doha final, if both men advance that far. His opponent in the title match, however, could be Federer, who is on a semifinal collision course with Murray.
  
  But don't pencil Nadal into the title match just yet. The Spaniard could have a tricky first-round match against veteran Frenchman Fabrice Santoro, against whom Nadal has never played. If the world No. 1 advances, as expected, he will play the winner of a match between two qualifiers. Gael Monfils, who came on very strong in the second half of 2008, could run into Nadal in the quarterfinals.
  
  Andy Roddick is a potential semifinal opponent for Nadal, and the American's quarter includes No. 6 seed Igor Andreev, 2008 Wimbledon quarterfinalist Arnaud Clement, Mikhail Youzhny, and Viktor Troicki. Fellow Russians Andreev and Youzhny will battle in round one. Roddick, assuming he can get through his first two rounds, will have a tough test against Andreev, Youzhny, Troicki, or Victor Hanescu in the quarterfinals.
  
  The bottom half of the draw looks far less imposing for Federer and Murray. Federer opens with Potito Starace and his nearest seed is No. 8 Philipp Kohlschreiber. Murray begins his 2009 ATP campaign against Albert Montanes and his first possible seeded opponent is No. 7 Dmitry Tursunov, who ended 2008 mired in a slump.
  
  Roddick is the only real question mark in terms of the top four seeds reaching the semis, but if he takes care of business, this intriguing season-opening event should produce two mouth-watering semifinal showdowns.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Mikhail Youzhny over Igor Andreev. Youzhny opened the 2008 season by blowing out Nadal in Chennai and reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. The Russian seemed destined to finish the year as a Masters Cup participant. Instead, Youzhny collapsed thereafter. He will be facing pressure to defend a ton of points from his early results last year, but he should be confident knowing he has a history of starting seasons in fine form. Compatriot Igor Andreev is a tough opponent and the No. 6 seed is only getting better on hard courts (reached the fourth round of the U.S. Open last summer before taking Roger Federer to the brink of defeat). Still, Andreev prefers clay for his heavy topspin forehand and baseline-exclusive game. Andreev is the considerable favorite here, but you just never know when Youzhny is going to discover his game and go on another streak.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Gael Monfils, Viktor Troicki, Philipp Petzschner
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Andy Roddick, Dmitry Tursunov, Mikhail Youzhny
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Rafael Nadal over Andy Roddick and Roger Federer over Andy Murray
  
  Final Prediction: Federer over Nadal
  
  
  

  Brisbane International

  Where: Brisbane, Australia
  Surface: Hard, Plexicushion
  Prize Money: $484,750
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Novak Djokovic
  Defending Champion: Michael Llodra (held in Adelaide)
  
  Draw Analysis: One of the biggest names in the tournament will be out in the first round, because No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic drew the most dangerous unseeded player in the tournament, Ernests Gulbis. The 20-year-old Latvian is only ranked 53rd in the world, but his talent makes him a huge draw for fans. Based on his results late in 2008, however, Gulbis will probably be making an early exit from Brisbane.
  
  Djokovic could also be in danger in the quarterfinals, where Tomas Berdych and Kei Nishikori are potential opponents. Fernando Verdasco, Mardy Fish, and Mario Ancic will battle for the other semifinal spot in Djokovic's half of the draw.
  
  There's a French flavor to the other section, where Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the No. 2 seed. Tsonga, the 2008 Australian Open runner-up, could meet compatriot Richard Gasquet in the quarterfinals. Gasquet already dispatched fellow Frenchman Marc Gicquel in the first round. France's Julien Benneteau is also through to round two, having dispatched Robby Ginepri in three sets on Sunday. Benneteau will meet Robin Söderling, who eased past Sam Querrey, for a spot in the quarterfinals. Söderling fell to Benneteau at the French Open last season, but the Swede is a far more formidable opponent on hard courts.
  
  Radek Stepanek and Michael Llodra, who won this title in Adelaide last year, are also ones to watch in Söderling's quarter of the draw.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Jurgen Melzer over Mardy Fish. Melzer leads the head-to-head series with Fish 2-1, including 1-0 on hard courts. Fish enjoyed awesome results at the Masters Series Indian Wells (runner-up) and U.S. Open (quarterfinals) last season, but did little else, especially late in the year. While the American is a force on hard courts, Melzer's lefty serve and aggressive style of play are also extremely dangerous on fast surfaces. Starting in mid-July of last year, the Austrian did not lose in the first round of any tournament until his final appearance of the year in Basel.
  
  Gulbis has the potential to beat Djokovic, but the Serb defeated him twice last season. Two of Gulbis' three best tournaments as a professional ended at Djokovic's hands; first in the quarterfinals of the French Open and again at the quarterfinals of the Masters Series Cincinnati. Given that Djokovic capped off 2008 with the Masters Cup title while Gulbis finished the year in a slump, there's no reason to think the tide will turn in Brisbane.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kei Nishikori
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Taylor Dent, Marcos Baghdatis, Jarkko Nieminen
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Novak Djokovic over Mario Ancic and Robin Söderling over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
  
  Final Prediction: Djokovic over Söderling
  
  
  

  Chennai Open

  Where: Chennai, India
  Surface: Hard, Plexicushion
  Prize Money: $450,000
  Points: 250
  Top Seed: Nikolay Davydenko
  Defending Champion: Mikhail Youzhny (not playing)
  
  Draw Analysis: There is no clear-cut favorite at any of this week's three tournaments, and that's especially the case in Chennai. No. 1 seed Nikolay Davydenko ended 2008 as the Masters Cup runner-up, but he is far from a dominant player. The Russian should be able to cruise through a weak quarter of the draw into the quarterfinals, but at that point he could be challenged by Marin Cilic or Janko Tipsarevic. Cilic and Tipsarevic should also ease into a quarterfinal showdown, as none of the unseeded players in their section appear to be overly dangerous.
  
  The early stages of the bottom half of the draw should prove to be far more interesting. Stanislas Wawrinka is the No. 2 seed, but he finished 2008 in terrible form, costing himself a shot at the Masters Cup, for which he was once in great position. Should the Swiss fall to Rainer Schuettler in the quarterfinals, Carlos Moya and Ivo Karlovic (along with Schuettler) will be seeking a spot in the title match. Karlovic failed to build upon his semifinal appearance in Cincinnati late in 2008, but he is always a load to deal with on hard courts regardless of his form. Also watch out for Indian hopeful Somdev Devvarman, who is embarking on his first full ATP season. Devvarman should be able to give Moya a stern test in the second round if the former college star (University of Virginia) survives Kevin Kim in his opener.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Hyung-Taik Lee over Marcel Granollers. This will not be free clinic in stellar hard-court tennis, but Lee won't care how he wins as long as he gets the job done. After all, victories have been few and far between for the 32-year-old Korean. Lee plummeted to 115th in the rankings last season and was relegated to the Challenger circuit late in 2008. Impressive minor-league results in October and November, however, should have restored Lee's confidence. Furthermore, it won't take much to oust Granollers on hard courts. The Spaniard prefers clay, on which he won a surprising ATP title in Houston last spring. Granollers did not win a single main draw match on hard courts in 2008 until the Masters Series Madrid, and did not win another one after that. It won't be pretty, but look for Lee to advance in this one.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Stanislas Wawrinka, Ivo Karlovic, Marcel Granollers,
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Nikolay Davydenko over Marin Cilic and Carlos Moya over Rainer Schuettler
  
  Final Prediction: Davydeko over Moya
  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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