2008-11-06 09:06:53
"Approach Shots" is Ricky’s weekly look at what’s ahead (or "approaching”) on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he’ll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
Roger Federer. Andy Murray. Novak Djokovic. Nikolay Davydenko. Andy Roddick. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Juan Martin Del Potro. Gilles Simon. That’s your 2009 Masters Cup field. Not counting Rafael Nadal, who is out with knee tendinitis, it’s almost impossible to argue that those are not the eight best players in the world. They will compete for the concluding title of the year in Shanghai and arguably the biggest outside of the four Grand Slams. To steal from golf’s slogan for the PGA Championship, it’s "glory’s last shot".
Where: Shanghai, China
Surface: Indoor Hard
Prize Money: $3,800,000
Top Seed: Roger Federer
Defending Champion: Roger Federer
Draw Analysis:
Red Group: Federer, Murray, Roddick, Simon
Gold Group: Djokovic, Davydenko, Tsonga, Del Potro
Federer and Murray are clearly the two favorites to take the Masters Cup title, but don’t be too quick to gripe over the fact that they are in the same foursome. Because they are in the same group, they now have no chance of meeting in the semifinals. The No. 1 seed from the red plays the No. 2 from the gold and vice versa. That means the stage is already set for a Federer-Murray championship showdown.
With Federer and Murray, the red group is by far the tougher of the two, but the gold group should be much more competitive. Federer and Murray are heavily favored to advance to the semifinals out of the red, whereas the gold looks like an exciting free-for-all.
Djokovic is the highest-seeded gold player at No. 2, but anyone could come up with a conceivable argument that he will finish last in the group. Among those arguments: Djokovic went 0-3 in round-robin play at the 2007 Masters Cup and did not win a single set. A similar late-season disappearance already seems to be underway this time around, as the Serb has done almost nothing since losing to Federer in the U.S. Open semifinals. Djokovic’s indoor-swing doldrums featured losses to Ivo Karlovic in Madrid and to Tsonga (a second consecutive loss to the Frenchman) in Paris.
Davydenko seemed to get back on track with a semifinal appearance in Paris, where he lost to David Nalbandian in three tough sets. Tsonga is healthy again and when healthy, he’s just plain scary. Think about it: he missed three months and two Grand Slams (the French Open and Wimbledon, and was far from 100 percent at the U.S. Open) and still qualified for the Masters Cup! Del Potro is fatigued and hobbled by a foot problem, but he remains extremely dangerous. After all, nobody was hotter than the Argentine when he won every single one of the four tournaments he played in between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
Still, Djokovic is the No. 3 player in the world and he is for a reason. With Federer and Murray in the other group, he can and should be competitive in all three of his round-robin matches. Heck, he could even win them all. Every one of the six gold-group matches could go either way.
In the red, it’s just hard to see how Roddick or Simon will pull off a surprise. Roddick is always dangerous on fast hard courts, but Murray might be the best returner in the game right now and Federer is ending the season too strong to think Roddick will get the best of him again, like he did in Miami (when Federer was really sputtering). Simon is an incredible fighter and probably makes fewer unforced errors than anyone on the planet right now, but the draw was not kind to the Frenchman. Murray might be just as smart and just as consistent as Simon on the court, but he also has far more weapons. Roddick recently disposed of Simon in Paris, where Simon had the benefit of a rabid crowd behind him. You can bet Federer has not forgotten his stunning loss to Simon at the Masters Series Canada. The Swiss won’t let it happen again.
First-Round Upset Alert: There is no real first round, of course, as Masters Cup features round-robin play to determine the semifinalists. All eight players will essentially contest three opening-round matches, squaring off with the other three competitors in a particular group. I don’t see Federer or Murray getting upset by Roddick or Simon. Djokovic is not playing well enough right now to consider a loss to either Davydenko or Tsonga as an "upset.” Heck, Tsonga has defeated him twice in the last two months. Del Potro, on the other hand, is a different story. He is not well-suited to indoor courts and it remains to be seen how serious his toe problem is. Nonetheless, as good as Djokovic looked early in the year, he probably presents Del Potro’s best chance of picking up a round-robin win at the Masters Cup.
Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gilles Simon
Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Novak Djokovic
Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray over Nikolay Davydenko
Final Prediction: Federer over Murray
And just for fun, here's a prediction (or should I say an impossible stab in the dark!) of every round-robin match:
Red Group:
Federer over Murray in 3
Federer over Roddick in 3
Federer over Simon in 2
Murray over Roddick in 2
Murray over Simon in 2
Roddick over Simon in 3
Gold Group:
Davydenko over Djokovic in 2
Davydenko over Del Potro in 2
Tsonga over Davydenko in 3
Tsonga over Del Potro in 3
Djokovic over Tsonga in 3
Del Potro over Djokovic in 3
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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i have a feeling that we will have a federer vs murray final.
of course, i would love federer to win his 5th masters cup.
on paper, the red group is definitely the tougher group of the two, i expect federer and murray to get through to the semis.
the gold group is much more wide open, djoko is in a slump, tsonga is on a high, del potro is a first-timer and davydenko appears to be playing not too bad, so who knows what will happen with that group.
great to see simon, del potro and tsonga for the first time at the masters cup. should be a great 8 days of tennis. :)
ivanovic33 , 11/8/08 7:57 AM
Maybe RickyDimon would do well to say " It's all my opinion, folks, and it is a little naive". Second series of consecutive terrible predictions.
Rule no.1: Don't overhype Federer. He's been seeing lousy competition for the last few years and with the sudden emergence of competition he's finding it hard. Remember, this is a guy with an average five set record.
Rule no.2: You're putting down Djokovic too much. I would have thought his game is an indication of what he's capable of.
samprallica , 11/26/08 12:16 PM
weak competition in what sense? besides although Rafa is younger to him he's been a part of the same era..
janhavi , 11/26/08 12:30 PM
samprallica, well done, nothing to add, just, don't pay attention to RickyDimon, he's very well known in undervaluation of Novak, about his predictions I even don't want to discuss, nevertheless, our Nole has shown to everyone who is he, finally, let me remind all of 'experts', NOVAK IS MUSTERS CUP CHAMPION, fact is telling the whole story, period.
gordana , 11/26/08 12:33 PM
um.......maybe you can relax a bit?
janhavi , 11/26/08 12:34 PM
In what sense? I'll tell you in what.
Nadal is a great player but until this year, he was a regulation claycourter. Only in 2008 has he really made his backjhand and serve weapons; permitting him to advance and be aggressive; two necessary elements to be better on hard and grass courts.
He still made the finals of two previous Wimbledons.
Since the Safin injury; up until the emergence of Djokovic and more recently Murray; name one player with both the game and Champion's mettle required to consistently challenge Federer. You can't.
You cant take anything away from Fed, but I still feel he is overhyped by the media. The same media that loved Agassi and hated Sampras, the same media that condemns two parents who've spent a good part of their lives with dreams for their son; the same media that used Kournikova to market tennis.
samprallica , 11/26/08 12:55 PM
I dont know hyped in what sense..if its GOAT thingy I would agree..there cant be one GOAT according to me...the period after Safin would mean 2006..accoding to me Roger had enough competition in 2007..and even this year he managed to reach the semis of all the slams...and win 1..
janhavi , 11/26/08 1:21 PM
GOAT and pretty boy.
Roger Federer is not the person the media portray him to be. 2007 had a fledgling Djokovic, and a Nadal still finding his feeet on hard courts. He was still massacred by Gonzalez and Youzhny.
The truth is, Roger's real rival's should be players his own age. Not youngsters who haven't reached the prime ages of 23/24/25.
samprallica , 11/26/08 1:29 PM
coming back to the topic-Ricky Dimon's predictions are based on what he personally feels..he's no seer..Federer was obviously the favourite considering the fact that he had won it 4 times before..besides Novak's form before Shanghai did not look very convincing..
janhavi , 11/26/08 1:30 PM
THAT is your opinion..not a fact in any sense..besides..and he wasnt massacred by Gonzalez ..anyway he won the tournament so hardly matters.
janhavi , 11/26/08 1:35 PM
Fact: "He was too defensive, he's not going to improve playing this way" - Federer complaining Murray was too defensive after being beaten in Dubai 2007.
Fact: "I think its the knee. If he loses the tournament, he can blame it on the knee. If he wins, wow, then still its a major surprise. So he figures he's in a good position anyway" - Federer on why Marat Safin seemed relaxed during 2005 Halle.
And as for the massacre I'm talking about Nadal in Australia.
samprallica , 11/26/08 1:47 PM
dont give me those random comments please...they always have a context...i dont know about Safin..so I wont comment..but about Murray- what he said was true..if you saw that match...and if being a 'pretty boy' means he's going to be honest about what he feels ..i love it..besides the players themselves seem to have no problem with him...
janhavi , 11/26/08 2:02 PM
samprallica I agree with you. If only Fed had it in him to look back on the complaints he's made, excuses for his losses and some statments he's made about himself and other players over the years, he'd be a better man. Fed's game and dominance has drawn him many fans who admire him for his game but fail to see the reality of the situation and the person he really is underneath the glory of his wins.
remi , 11/26/08 2:03 PM
Federer - great player but arrogant. I dont even mind that he is arrogant. He has every right to be. He's better than hundreds on the tour but still arrogant.
Why does the damn media portray him differently?
samprallica , 11/26/08 2:03 PM
all players have reasons when they lose..that does not mean they give excuses..about the statements made..if he likes to be honest and if the particular player is Okay with that ,what problem should any of us have? and i personally dont think the media potrays him differently-his good qualities are superior in number and he's also quick to praise his opponent as and when required..
janhavi , 11/26/08 2:12 PM
They do have a context. Federer has just lost or is under a bit more pressure than usual when he makes these comments.
Honesty and arrogance have two different meanings.
As for the excuses, I can't be sure about what state he's in physically, although I thought saying the court was too quick once was ridiculous.
But then again, Agassi played with a perennial back injury. Sampras won a tournament on one leg, and played his career with thalassemia minor.
I'm not entirely biased in this discussion. My favourite player on tour now is Djokovic, but he too needs to learn that sore throats are not excuses to withdraw or lose.
samprallica , 11/26/08 2:12 PM
this is something i dont wish to argue about at all ..i personally believe he's honest..I like him.and thats about it...i have never heard him complaining about court conditions after he lost a match..besides id rather believe those who actually know him...now about Sampras and Agassi..as I dont remember each and every interview of theirs -i would rather not comment
janhavi , 11/26/08 2:20 PM
janhavi there you go again with you 'what problem should any of us have?' you don't have to turn this personal. if people have a problem with something and want to discuss in this forum, it's the right place for it. we can stick to the players and their tennis, no need to turn this onto the fans. if you can't handle it, maybe you should consider taking a break.
Of course there are reaosns when people lose, but Fed MAKES excuses our of some of those reasons. Other times he shoots himself int eh foot by making arrogant statments before a tourney so when he loses, he MUST have an excuse because he SHOULD NOT have lost!
The media portrays people whoever they want. They always have, they alwasy will.
remi , 11/26/08 2:20 PM
i wouldnt define that as turning personal...just as you were voicing your opinion about how his fans dont seem to see the reality i was expressing mine,okay?you are the one who turned it on the fans in the first place...as for your opinion that federer makes excuses-again dont wish to comment anymore..that way even Nadal and Djokovic 'make' excuses...of course id rather believe they are genuine reasons as none of us understand the pressure of being on a centre court or practice courts and slogging day in and day out.
janhavi , 11/26/08 2:50 PM
what excuses has nadal made, please, i'm interested to know.
homos , 11/26/08 3:07 PM
you didnt get me-i said nadal's reasons can be taken as excuses..and so can be done with every player..persoanlly i dont feel nadal gives excuses at all.. :) cheers
janhavi , 11/26/08 3:15 PM
ok must have misunderstood from reading above. thanks for your explanation.
homos , 11/26/08 3:31 PM
samprallica, hindsight is 20/20
your comment might have meant something if you had posted it before the Masters Cup started. Now it means nothing.
RickyDimon , 11/26/08 3:35 PM
Mon 14/05 03:45
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
Sun 06/05 03:03
Approach Shots: Tangled up in blue at Madrid Masters
Mon 30/04 05:57
Approach Shots: Djokovic out, Del Potro starts French Open prep
Mon 23/04 05:29
Approach Shots: Nadal, Murray return to action in Barcelona
Sat 21/04 19:01
Monte Carlo final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal
Mon 16/04 02:46
Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal begin clay season in Monte Carlo
Tue 10/04 15:48
Approach Shots: Houston, Casablanca begin clay-court swing
Thu 05/04 18:40
Approach Shots: Davis Cup precedes clay-court swing
Tue 27/03 16:14
John Isner Top 10 tribute
Wed 21/03 05:08
Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
Thu 08/03 07:03
Approach shots: First Masters event of the year in Indian Wells
Tue 28/02 18:41
Approach Shots: Federer, Djokovic back in action
Mon 20/02 05:10
Approach Shots: Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro headline busy week
Sun 12/02 15:44
Approach Shots: Federer looks to rebound in Rotterdam
Thu 09/02 21:21
Approach Shots: Federer headlines Davis Cup first round
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I think roger is in good shape except that he had to withdraw from Paris SF against Blake due to stiff back. I want him beat all three players in red group and eventually win his fifth trophy. Five wimbledon, five US Open and five Masters Cup will prove his genius. go, Roger!
takeko , 11/7/08 8:43 PM