Ricky Dimon

• A look back at my Masters Cup predictions

  2008-11-04 09:10:25
  

  I predicted the 2008 Masters Cup field, in order, at the end of the Australian Open. Now the regular season is over, the field is set, so it’s time to take a look back...
  
  (Note: bold text is what was previously predicted. Plain text is the new addition).
  
  1. Roger Federer - Sure he might not be as dominant as he has been the past three or four years, but Federer is still the class of men's tennis, especially when he is 100 percent healthy (which he probably wasn't at the Australian Open). Wimbledon, the U.S. Open, and several Masters Series titles should be expected for the world No. 1 heading into Shanghai.
  
  So much for Wimbledon and several Masters Series titles. Federer was dethroned at the All-England Club by Rafael Nadal and he did not win a single Masters Series shield. The Swiss did, however, chalk up a fifth-straight U.S. Open and that was more than enough to qualify in second place for Shanghai.
  
  2. Novak Djokovic - He's already qualified thanks to his Grand Slam title at the Australian Open (barring some kind of disastrous injury). Djokovic is ranked third, but on all surfaces other than clay he appears to be the clear-cut number two.
  
  Not so much. Djokovic came relatively close to finishing No. 2 in the race, but that would have been ahead of Federer, not Nadal. The Serb is not even close to the clear-cut No. 2 on all surfaces other than clay and yet another late-season slump leaves him as the third favorite at best (behind Federer and Andy Murray, would be fourth if Nadal was participating) for Shanghai and arguably even worse than that. It just didn’t really happen for Djokovic after those early-season titles in Australia and Indian Wells.
  
  3. Rafael Nadal - The fact that the clay-court season is so long swill once again benefit Nadal and should give him a good chance of finishing the year No. 2, if not even No. 1. He looked good Down Under before running into the Tsonga steamroller, and the Spaniard will be heavily favored for the fourth consecutive year at Roland Garros.
  
  If there's one thing to learn from this season, it’s to never underestimate Rafael Nadal. Picking him to finish third in the race did not exactly work out so well. Yes he won another French Open, but the Spaniard also captured massive titles at Wimbledon and the Olympics. Combine all of that with another dominant clay-court season and a U.S. Open semifinal appearance and Nadal owned the ATP Tour in 2008. It is a loss for tennis that he will not be present in Shanghai.
  
  4. David Ferrer - I think Ferrer right now is without a doubt the fourth best player in the world. He enjoyed an incredible second half of the 2007 season and he picked up right where he left off in Australia with a quarterfinal appearance. The Spaniard is mastering both hard courts and clay courts, so that should allow him to consistently amass huge rankings points.
  
  I overestimated Ferrer as much as I underestimated Nadal. Ferrer seemed poised to carry over the momentum from a breakout 2007 campaign by starting strong in 2008 and he posted some awesome results on clay throughout the spring and early summer. The Spaniard looked like a lock for Shanghai after the French Open and a surprising grass-court title leading up to Wimbledon, but it all fell apart for Ferrer after that. He was still ninth in the race heading into Paris despite a brutal post-Wimbledon slump, but an opening loss to Philipp Kohlschreiber put him out of his misery.
  
  5. Andy Murray - He missed both the French Open and Wimbledon last year with a wrist injury and still managed to finish just one spot short of qualifying for Shanghai. If Murray stays healthy in 2008, there's no reason to think he won't make it. The Scot got unlucky by drawing Tsonga in the first round at the Australian, but he should be able to bounce back.
  
  Bounce back would be an understatement. It took a while, but bounce back he did. Murray caught fire during the U.S. Open Series, winning the Masters Series Cincinnati. He went on to finish runner-up at the U.S. Open and went back-to-back in Masters Series events by taking the Madrid title. The Scot won another title in St. Petersburg one week later and reached the quarterfinals in Paris. Murray should go into Shanghai as the second favorite behind Federer.
  
  6. Mikhail Youzhny - The Russian looked absolutely unstoppable in Australia before meeting Tsonga in the semifinals. Youzhny is solid on hard, clay, and grass, and that means he has opportunities to pick up big points in every tournament he enters.
  
  Youzhny was pretty much pathetic the entire rest of the year. On hard, clay, and grass!
  
  7. Richard Gasquet - He qualified last year (as the eight and final qualifier) and Gasquet is only getting better, so why can't he make it again? If there's one player (other than Federer and Djokovic) who can really do some damage on all three surfaces, it's the Frenchman. I expect big things out of him at all three of the remaining Grand Slams in 2008.
  
  If by “big things” I meant a no-show at the French Open, a blown two-set lead against Murray at Wimbledon, and a first-round loss at the U.S. Open, then yeah. Gasquet still has the talent and still has time to put it all together, but until his mental game turns around drastically, he will never be a serious Masters Cup contender. Gasquet needs to take notes in the fighting spirit department from countrymen and Masters Cup participants Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon.
  
  8. Andy Roddick - This pick probably won't be greeted too warmly, but I just don't see any better options. Roddick still has arguably the biggest serve in tennis and that alone should deliver him a few hardcourt titles and another strong showing at Wimbledon. And don't overreact about his loss to Kohlschreiber at the Australian; Roddick played amazing. Kohlschreiber simply put on a performance for the ages.
  
  Roddick did not have an unbelievable year, but with Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray hogging so many available points, the American accumulated more than enough points to qualify. He had not mathematically clinched a spot prior to Paris, but he was close. A quarterfinal appearance cemented Roddick’s place in Shanghai with room to spare. Roddick was mostly disappointing at the Grand Slams, however, so he will want to end the season by showing he can still win the big tournaments and beat the top players in the world (as he did in Miami and Dubai).

   

  Other possibilities:

  
  David Nalbandian - Will we get the Nalbandian we saw at the end of 2007 or the one we saw at the Australian Open?
  
  The one we saw at the Australian Open lost got blown out by Juan Carlos Ferrero in the third round there. Nalbandian also choked a sure victory away when he blew a two-set lead to unheralded Frenchman Jeremy Chardy at the French Open. Not much went Nalbandian’s way in 2008, but the indoor-court wizard once again came up big late in the season. He reached the Basel final and a run back to the Paris final (where he was defending title) left him one win away from qualifying for Shanghai. The Argentine, however, was denied by Tsonga.
  
  Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Can he sustain the momentum from his incredible Aussie Open run?
  
  Another knee injury prevented him from sustaining that momentum, but he still qualified for Shanghai nonetheless! Despite being sideline from May until the U.S. Open, missing two Grand Slams and the Olympics in between, the Frenchman used a miracle run to the Paris title to book the last Masters Cup ticket. Just think where Tsonga would be if he had played a full season.
  
  James Blake - Will he ever have a breakout performance at a Grand Slam?
  
  The answer to that question is a resounding no. At least not yet. Blake was miserable at the Slams, but he did some serious damage at a number of Masters Series events and reached the semifinals of the Olympics. The American benefited from Federer’s withdrawal in Paris to keep his distant Masters Cup hopes alive, but he fell to Tsonga in the semifinals to come up just short. With Nadal out of Shanghai, Blake is currently the first alternate.
  
  Nikolay Davydenko - Is this the beginning of the downside of his career?
  
  It probably is, but Davydenko was still the fifth man to qualify for the Masters Cup and he had room to spare in doing so. When you think about it, though, the Russian’s year was far from spectacular and he actually could have come close to missing out on Shanghai altogether. Davydenko picked up 100 race points for winning the Masters Series Miami, where he had faced two match points in his very first match. An opening loss in Miami, as opposed to the title, would have put Davydenko’s Shanghai hopes on thin ice the entire season.
  
  Tomas Berdych - Is he ever going to start beating the top players in the world?
  
  The year has come and gone and the question still stands. Berdych won a relatively big title in Tokyo just a few weeks ago, but he did little else. The Czech was nothing more than an afterthought in 2008 and he will be viewed in that same way heading into 2009.
  
  Not Mentioned: Juan Martin Del Potro and Gilles Simon.
  
  OK so I didn’t see these performances coming. Then again, who did!
  
  What makes it all the more amazing is that Del Potro and Simon were still just blips on the Masters Cup radar screen after six months of the season had elapsed! Del Potro took the tennis world by storm winning four straight tournaments (the first four of his career) after Wimbledon to put himself squarely in the Shanghai discussion. A quarterfinal appearance at the U.S. Open and a decent (albeit injury-marred) indoor swing solidified the Argentine’s spot.
  
  Simon was his normal solid but unspectacular self until the start of the U.S. Open Series. He won a title in Indianapolis and went all the way to the semifinals of the Masters Series Canada. The Frenchman really made a name for himself in Madrid, where he won five straight matches in three sets (four in third-set tiebreakers), one over Nadal, en route to the final.
  
  Del Potro and Simon, arguably the two hottest players on tour at the time, squared off in the third round of the U.S. Open this summer and it was the best match I saw over Labor Day weekend in New York and one of the best matches I’ve ever seen live. These guys are for real. Not having Nadal in Shanghai is a big blow. Simon is not flashy, but he is not a bad substitute; especially not for fans who appreciate players who exude fight, heart, and mental toughness.

Tell a friend »

Comments

Write comment

You have to be logged in to comment. If you do not have an account, click here to register. It only takes a minute and you'll be redirected back to this page.

Username:

Password:

Archive

Unibet Mobile prematch,live betting

Recommend Tennistalk

Follow us

Poll

Articles - Latest commented

• 
  1

  Hewitt to gets his Paris chance
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 10:03 AM

• 
  4

  Federer, Ferrero clash in Rome third round
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 9:02 AM

• 
  3

  Federer wins Rome opener over Berlocq
  

  brothdog, May 17, 2012 8:55 AM

• 
  2

  Nadal headlines third-round action on Thursday
  

  nadline, May 17, 2012 8:37 AM

• 
  1

  Murray gets birthday warning swearing in victory
  

  ts38, May 17, 2012 3:15 AM

Blog - Latest commented

• 
  62
  Approach Shots: Djokovic, Nadal look to rebound on red clay
  

  rafaisthebest, May 17, 2012 10:04 AM

• 
  73
  Novak Djokovic takes up skating at the Madrid ice rink
  

  hawkeye, May 17, 2012 12:53 AM

• 
  207
  Approach shots: On-fire Federer can pass Nadal in Miami
  

  hrsikesa, May 16, 2012 4:23 PM

Tell a friend

Other tennis links

• www.tennis.com
• www.atptennis.com
• www.menstennisforums.com
• www.itftennis.com
• More links...