Ricky Dimon

• Approach Shots: Federer back in Basel

  2008-10-20 10:38:04
  

  "Approach Shots" is Ricky's weekly look at what's ahead (or "approaching") on the ATP Tour. Every Sunday he'll preview all the tournaments scheduled for the upcoming week.
  
  This is the week in between the Masters Series Madrid and the Masters Series Paris, so that means it's time to rest, right? Wrong! There are three tournaments on the menu and all three boast outstanding fields. Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic are taking another break, but that's about it among the top players. The highlight, of course, is Roger Federer's return to Basel, Switzerland for the Davidoff Swiss Indoors.

   

  Davidoff Swiss Indoors

  Where: Basel, Switzerland
  Surface: Indoor Carpet
  Prize Money: 891,000 Euros
  Top Seed: Roger Federer
  Defending Champion: Roger Federer
  
  Draw Analysis: Federer failed to win his first event since the U.S. Open last week in Madrid, but this is his tournament to take. It's in the city in which he was born, he is the No. 1 seed (with no Nadal, Djokovic, or even Andy Murray to contend with), and his draw is clearly favorable. The other three seeds in his half of the draw are Tomas Berdych, James Blake, and Mardy Fish. In the bottom half there is David Nalbandian, Juan Martin Del Potro, Stanislas Wawrinka, and Igor Andreev. Sure Federer is favored against anyone he plays in this tournament, but avoiding both Nalbandian and Del Potro as long as possible is ideal. Heck, even Andreev gave Federer serious problems at the U.S. Open. Berdych is dangerous-he recently won a title in Tokyo-but he still rarely comes up big against the very top players.
  
  Blake and Fish will vie for the other quarterfinal spot in the top half. Fish crushed his countryman and friend at the U.S. Open, but he could meet in-form Feliciano Lopez before getting to Blake. Likewise, Blake has Nicolas Kiefer in his opening round. The German routed Blake at the Masters Series Toronto earlier this summer.
  
  The bottom half of the draw is just going to be a nonstop, all-out war. The potential quarterfinal showdowns are Andreev vs. Del Potro and Wawrinka vs. Nalbandian, but there is long way to go before any of that takes place. Andreev has Jurgen Mezler in round one and could get Philipp Kohlschreiber in the second. Nalbandian could be dealing with Philipp Petzschner in round two. Petzschner was a recent surprise winner in Vienna.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Jurgen Melzer over Igor Andreev and Nicolas Kiefer over James Blake. Andreev is playing well right now, and while he has become a better all-court player in 2008, he likes having a lot of time to set up his huge topspin forehand at the baseline. Indoor hard courts do not do that for him, but they do allow Melzer to work his serve-and-volley magic. If the Austrian puts in a lot of first serves, Andreev could be on the way out. Blake, meanwhile, is probably still thinking about that blowout loss to Kiefer in Toronto. He also has to be thinking about the funk he has been in ever since bowing out the Olympics in the bronze medal match. Kiefer is not the kind of guy you want to play when you are lacking confidence.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, David Nalbandian, Tomas Berdych, Philipp Petzschner, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Feliciano Lopez
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis, Simone Bolelli, Nicolas Kiefer, Tommy Haas, Agustin Calleri, Jose Acasuso
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Roger Federer over Feliciano Lopez and Juan Martin Del Potro over David Nalbandian
  
  Final Prediction: Federer over Del Potro

   

  St. Petersburg Open

  Where: St. Petersburg, Russia
  Surface: Indoor Hard
  Prize Money: $1,049,000
  Top Seed: Andy Murray
  Defending Champion: Andy Murray
  
  Draw Analysis: The big question right now is whether or not Andy Murray will withdraw. On one hand, he is the defending champion in St. Petersburg so it's a safe bet that he doesn't want to miss it. On the other hand, he just won the Masters Series Madrid this week and rapidly approaching in the coming weeks are another Masters Series event in Paris and the year-end Masters Cup. Murray knows good and well that it is far more important to be 100-percent fresh for those events than it is to successfully defend his St. Petersburg title.
  
  Nonetheless, if Murray plays he is the clear favorite to hoist the trophy yet again. That says more about the Scot's recent form that it does about his draw. Prior to winning in Madrid, Murray triumphed at the Masters Series Cincinnati earlier this summer and followed that up with a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open, where he upset Rafael Nadal in the semifinals. Along with Nadal, Federer, and Del Potro, Murray has been one of the hottest players in tennis since the beginning of the summer.
  
  His draw, however, is not exactly favorable. Viktor Troicki, Murray's opening opponent, is enjoying a breakout 2008 campaign and the young Serb has a big came that can work well on indoor hard courts. Ernests Gulbis, who possesses a massive but wildly inconsistent game, looms large as a potential round-two opponent. Gulbis gave Murray all he could handle at the Wimbledon tune-up event at Queen's Club and had Nadal on the ropes in Madrid. Big-serving Croat Mario Ancic and Metz champion Dmitry Tursunov are also dangerous indoors. They can meet Murray in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively.
  
  The bottom half of the draw mostly features a handful of veterans in search of good results amidst some hard times. No. 8 seed Marat Safin reached the final in Moscow two weeks ago but has otherwise been in atrocious form since Wimbledon. Second-seeded Nikolay Davydenko lost to Safin in Moscow and fell to Robby Ginepri in his opening Madrid match. Another experienced Russian, No. 4 seed Mikhail Youzhny, has been positively dismal ever since a torrid start to the year. The good news for Safin and Youzhny, however, is that they are in the same soft quarter of the draw. One of them should make the semifinals despite their recent misfortunes.
  
  The man who could take advantage of all this is No. 5 seed Marin Cilic, who beat Davydenko at this event last year en route to the semis. The 6'6'' up-and-coming Croat won his first ATP title in New Haven, reached the third round of the U.S. Open before almost upsetting Novak Djokovic, and made it to the Madrid quarters, where he had three set points in the first against Murray. Look for the winner of a potential second-round encounter between Cilic and big Romanian Victor Hanescu do some serious damage in St. Petersburg.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Even if Murray plays, he might not be interested in putting his body through another long week leading up to Paris. Take the Olympics, for example, to which Murray arrived exhausted from his win in Cincinnati and probably the trip to Beijing as well. He was stunned be unheralded Yen-Hsun Lu in the first round. Troicki certainly has the talent to send Murray packing if his opponent is dragging physically and/or mentally. He finished runner-up in Washington, D.C. this summer and most recently reached the quarterfinals in both Bangkok and Moscow. Also keep an eye on Jeremy Chardy vs. Ancic, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs. Gulbis, and Sergiy Stakhovsky vs. Safin.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Andy Murray, Marin Cilic, Dmitry Tursunov, Viktor Troicki, Igor Kunitsyn
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Nikolay Davydenko, Mikhail Youzhny, Mario Ancic, Dominik Hrbaty, Ernests Gulbis, Evgeny Korolev
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Dmitry Tursunov over Janko Tipsarevic and Marin Cilic over Mikhail Youzhny
  
  Final Prediction: Cilic over Tursunov

   

  Grand Prix de Tennis de Lyon

  Where: Lyon, France
  Surface: Indoor Carpet
  Prize Money: 713,000 Euros
  Top Seed: Andy Roddick
  Defending Champion: Sebastien Grosjean
  
  Draw Analysis: The Lyon fans were treated to an all-French final in 2007 when Sebastien Grosjean defeated Marc Gicquel, and the chances of an all-French final repeat are strong. Even if it doesn't happen, the French crowd will be getting a heavy dose of its countrymen throughout the week. Four of the eight seeds are Frenchman, including No. 2 Richard Gasquet, No. 3 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, No. 4 Gilles Simon, and No. 8 Paul-Henri Mathieu. Also in the field are Grosjean, Gicquel, Nicolas Mahut, Fabrice Santoro, Josselin Ouanna, Michael Llodra, Julien Benneteau, and Arnaud Clement.
  
  Benneteau and Clement have to square off in the first round, with the winner facing either Llodra or Tommy Robredo. The French-heavy bottom half of the draw also includes Gasquet, Mathieu, and Tsonga. Mathieu and Tsonga would collide in the quarterfinals, while Gasquet could get Radek Stepanek in round two and then either Robredo or Llodra in the quarters.
  
  Barring an extraordinary run by Stepanek, Robredo-who is not well-suited for indoor hard courts-or American Sam Querrey, at least one Frenchman will be in Sunday's title match.
  
  It's probably up to Simon, last week's surprising runner-up in Madrid, in the top half of the draw to make it another all-French affair. It won't be easy, however. Simon probably would not even play after his incredibly grueling performance in Madrid, but he needs precious points in hopes of a shocking Masters Cup berth. If he does play, he will face a relatively tough draw. Simon beat Ivo Karlovic in a third-set tiebreaker in Madrid and could meet the 6'10'' Croat again in the Lyon quarterfinals. Potential semifinal opponents are No. 1 seed Andy Roddick and third-seeded Robin Soderling. Roddick's big-serving game works well indoors and Soderling is an indoor master. Their potential quarterfinal showdown would probably be the match of the tournament. Roddick, however, could meet fellow American Robby Ginepri in the second round. Ginepri reached the quarterfinals in Madrid before having two match points in an epic loss to Simon.
  
  First-Round Upset Alert: Michael Llodra over Tommy Robredo. Robredo looked awesome at the U.S. Open in almost reaching the quarterfinals, but he is mostly a clay-court standout. Indoor hard courts are especially not ideal for his game, and the Spaniard has done very little in three tournaments since the Open. For Llodra, on the other hand, this surface is right up his alley. The Frenchman won an indoor event in Rotterdam earlier this year (to go along with a title in Adelaide the first week of the year). Llodra is not in the same form at this point in the season, but the court will give a great chance of pulling off this so-called upset.
  
  Momentum Builders (Players looking to continue recent good form): Gilles Simon, Ivo Karlovic
  
  Slump Busters (Players hoping to resurrect their games): Juan Monaco, Ivan Ljubicic, Guillermo Canas, Michael Llodra
  
  Semifinal Predictions: Ivo Karlovic over Andy Roddick and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Radek Stepanek
  
  Final Prediction: Karlovic over Tsonga

  
  
  Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!

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